LK Hyman
04 Aug 2016
Re: Amber, Where Are You? Happy,"offshore wind strike price is £155"Jaysus! Is it that much? We must all pray that the wind does not blow in that case ...LKH etc
Happy Rabbit
02 Aug 2016
Re: Amber, Where Are You? uytkvv, I'm sure that the government will need Drax to convert if it wishes to continue its green energy agenda, but waiting to be asked is a little bit unlikely! It did make me revue the costs for doing it though and the story is quite compelling!I believe that Drax raised about £815m to fund the first three unit conversions and had spent something like £700m all up, the last time I looked. I think (any help would be gratefully received) that this includes all costs of actual conversion and the setting up of the supply chain, port facilities, rail link and pellet mills. To convert the remaining three units would probably cost about the same again as more sources of biomass would be needed, and hence additional logistics.The thing preventing Drax going ahead now is maybe the limited biomass available rather than the will to do it. Back in 2013, Drax gave this capital market presentation ... [link] is interesting to see how Drax are wanting to move back up the supply train.It is compelling to realise that the UK could have another 2000Mw of renewable energy capacity for about £700M. This compares with about £2600M to install 2000Mw of wind turbine power (which would only average about 500 - 800Mw of unreliable output) and £18bn (more likely £24bn - £36bn) for 3200Mw of nuclear from Hinkley.Summarising, and factoring to 2000Mw of actual output ...Drax: About £700mHinkley: Choose a number, but based on £24bn, about £15bn.Off shore wind; based on a 25% load factor, about £10.4bn.Drax looks wonderfully cheap, and isn't wind power expensive!Regards,
uytkvv
01 Aug 2016
Re: Amber, Where Are You? There's no reason for Drax to spend money on more converting.Sooner or later (probably sooner) the government will be begging Drax to convert to biomass - presumably at a decent price.What happens if we get a few cold, calm, cloudy days in Winter?I predict that Winter will occur in less than 6 months time.
Happy Rabbit
01 Aug 2016
Re: Amber, Where Are You? In4apenny,Not only do we not have a coherent energy policy, I see today that three ministers of state have been announced, each with energy in their titles! Little hope of one appearing soon.Hopefully biomass will be centre stage with Drax not only converting the remaining three units but also selling conversion technology to other modern coal fired stations for conversion. Certainly Drax power is going to be needed this and all foreseeable winters ahead.Regarding the Hinkley Point setback, if Mrs May is concerned about security regarding Chinese investment in power stations, she could also look at who BT buy their exchange and fibre technology and equipment from. "Who are we?"Some may think that a strike price for the Hinkley power of £92.50 (i.e. 9.25p/kWh) is high, but the wholesale price of power is often even now much higher than that. Hinkley is required to sell at the wholesale price and anything over £92.50 comes back to the government (you and I). Also note that under the same contracting scheme offshore wind strike price is £155 and large solar is £120 for goodness sake. £92.50 for reliable base load looks good value, and this falls to £89.50 if Sizewell C goes ahead, as it must.Is the Areva European 1600 PWR the right choice? If you were choosing now, you may go for the Korean APR 1400, but that is not the option. The French reactor is currently being built with the "wrong sort of steel" for goodness sake and they seem incapable of stopping! Hopefully (certainly) the ones built in the UK can at least get this right!It is all very worrying, I'm afraid, and those politicians do seem not quite (!??!) up to the task.Regards,
in4apennyin4amil1
29 Jul 2016
Re: Amber, Where Are You? I agree we should all be concerned about the UK's yawning energy gap and the government's inability to decide upon a coherent energy policy, and maybe this is just the beginning of (risky) negotiations with our EU counterparts post-brexit, but I think it could be a good thing for Drax in the short to medium term. It will create uncertainty and push up wholesale prices along the curve and could mean the government deciding to back conversion of Drax's remaining coal fired units to Biomass. Well, we live in hope.
Punilux
29 Jul 2016
Re: Amber, Where Are You? There is no energy strategy.H. point will be re-considered as soon as the European economies are predicted to plummet. Of course, it might still go through but the Chinese will be paying 15% less than originally planned and the technology transfer risks may well have increased.The government can not look to the private sector for much funding after dumping on investors who thought they were backing numerous schemes with the former's full support.Obviously the UK will be part of the EU for at least two years so we are legally bound to close down most of our productive, and dirty, power plants. At present rates it is not even feasible to think about using gas unless we want to end up paying 20%+ more for electricity than our economic rivals. The support structures for wind, wave and solar are no longer economically feasible after Amber pulled the subsidies. It wasn't the lack of potatoes which caused the famine, it was just the fact that only people on the other side of the Irish Sea could afford them.Wouldn't it be ironic if Drax ended up producing the cleanest, cheapest power in Europe but no-one in the UK had enough money to buy it for the National Grid ?
Tom Buidhe
29 Jul 2016
Re: Amber, Where Are You? FT suggests the new May government has security fears over Chinese involvement in nuclear power stations. [link] an unexpected turnaround from the pre-referendum position. Osbourne has gone has and with him, the UK love-in with the China. Urgently required: a new energy strategy, low carbon preferably but possibly not essential when we leave the EU.
MNKGV
29 Jul 2016
Re: Amber, Where Are You? Happy P. What is not to understand ? This is the French trying to drag us into a financial disaster with them, when their 'new' idea goes wrong ! And look at that £/Mwh difference price. Who agreed that ? Just remember those queues in Dover last weekend.
Happy Rabbit
29 Jul 2016
Re: Amber, Where Are You? Or possibly not! He tries again ...[link]
Happy Rabbit
29 Jul 2016
Re: Amber, Where Are You? Hopefully this is the link ... lnkd.in/emvU-Np pic.twitter.com/2Tz0rOMDsd
Happy Rabbit
29 Jul 2016
Re: Amber, Where Are You? Punilux, This is indeed an astonishing turn about! The drivel about "we need to look at all the elements" is just that. What will the investors think? I guess that the government were not expecting EDF to give it the go ahead, or they would have said something sooner.Dorothy gave a good news release yesterday why we need nuclear and biomass, noting that by the time Hinkley comes on grid, all but one of the remaining nuclear stations will have closed. Hinkley will not even replace the nuclear capacity lost between now and 2025/30 let alone the coal stations closing by then.Hinkley may not be the best nuclear option any more, nor the cheapest but it is the only option available today. What is not to understand?Regards,
Punilux
28 Jul 2016
Amber, Where Are You? So Amber followed this great plan for China / EDF / Uncle Tom Cobley to pay for Hinkley Point. She was promoted to Home Secretary. Hinkley Point gets the go ahead in her absence for about an hour and now Greg Clark has put the skids on it. We will soon be outside the European Grid and have only a handful of fully functioning power stations .Just two questions. How can the Secretary of State for Business halt a Department of Energy project? Have people just realised that Ms Crudd spent the last fifteen months trying to complete colouring-in books using the wrong crayons?
nk1999
27 Jul 2016
Exane BNP Paribas From ADVFN:"Exane BNP Paribas downgraded Drax to 'neutral' from 'outperform' following a strong share price performance.The bank noted the stock has performed strongly over the past three months and particularly since the Brexit vote. The shares dropped 11% in the first two trading days after the vote but have rebounded 20% since then, slightly outperforming the broad utilities sector.It also pointed out that consensus momentum is turning negative."There is considerable uncertainty around a number of key issues affecting the stock - the CfD approval timing and result, the UK government's forthcoming consultation on coal and its attitude to supporting further biomass conversions," Exane said.It argued that it needed some clarity on the outlook for these issues before it could become more positive on the stock, adding that it sees more attractive risk-return elsewhere within the sector.As far as the first-half results are concerned, it said the numbers were line at the EBITA level but FX gains on the interest line put them modestly ahead of expectations at the pre-tax profit and earnings level.On Tuesday, Drax reported a drop in underlying earnings for the first half of the year amid weak commodity markets and following the removal of the climate change levy exemption.In the six months ended 30 June, underlying earnings came in at £17m from £41m in the first half of last year, while earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation slumped to £70m from £120m."
MNKGV
22 Jul 2016
Re: Three Probably Dumb Questions I get the distinct impression that the inmates are running the asylum in this industry, there is no place for common sense. Once upon a time it was designed ,run and managed by people who knew what they were doing. Now, it is totally controlled by external policies set by those who do not have our best interests at heart. There are no answers. We are just so lucky that there are enough of the 'old school ' left to keep those turbines we do have spinning .
Punilux
22 Jul 2016
Re: Three Probably Dumb Questions Of course it should be H. Point and the BBC reported last night that it would get final clearance from EDF today.
