Happy Rabbit
17 Feb 2017
Re: Results MNKGV,Maybe we should just write one for them and send it to DBEIS or the other department that also has energy is its title, or one of the three ministers that also have energy in their titles. Mmmm! Maybe not so simple?
MNKGV
17 Feb 2017
Re: Results HR ......is for HMG to have an actual energy policy...... There, you have it in one, and a postage stamp would be too big to write it on.
schwee
16 Feb 2017
Re: Results Not sure I agree about the results being concise. Depending on the accounting convention, attributable profits are £20m, £194m or £448m. Answers on a postcard.
Happy Rabbit
16 Feb 2017
Re: Results ps ... also thought that the results were well written, clear and reasonably concise.H.
Happy Rabbit
16 Feb 2017
Results Very surprised by the price movement this morning given that the headline figures had been so widely trailed. But I was also surprised by the climb, leading up to the results, for the same reason. Maybe people aren't as bright as I always give them credit for.The results are actually very good. Cash generation is excellent, cash in hand has also risen from £133m to £228m whilst the net debt has reduced to £93m from £187m.Very pleased to see a record 14Twh generated from biomass in the UK of which Drax accounted for 12.7Twh. (almost all of it!).Also the pellet plants are in full production, and there will be further investment here.The four OCGT stations, if built, will take about £80m to £100m which seems very reasonable for about 1200Mw of generation capacity.All (!!!) that is needed now is for HMG to have an actual energy policy, and a fourth unit will be converted before 2020.I'm very positive about all of this, and may be going to increase my holding if the price drops again tomorrow!Regards,
nk1999
15 Feb 2017
JP Morgan Cazenove From ADVFN:"JPMorgan Cazenove has moved to an 'overweight' rating on Drax, which was previously not rated, and rated at 'neutral' before that.It said a new strategy, the acquisition of Opus Energy, and State aid approval for its biomass CfD by the European Commission put Drax on a path to a more sustainable, predictable and profitable future.JPM said that according to its analysis, the recently-approved acquisition of Opus Energy is accretive to earnings and valuation and refreshing its estimates gives rise to earnings per share upgrades of around 30% on average from 2017."In particular, putting to rest the debate over Drax's strategic direction breathes new life into a company which has borne the brunt of UK decarbonisation policy in recent years."Following a period of restriction, we are moving to an overweight recommendation and December 2017 price target of 420p from Not Rated (Neutral and Jun-17 price target of 370p prior to restriction), based on our expectations that the stock re-rates as the company shifts its focus from its biomass conversion programme to an integrated customer growth strategy."In addition, JPM said that with earnings and free cash flow on a much firmer footing, it sees diminished risk of balance sheet stress despite the increase in net debt arising from the Opus transaction."
MNKGV
10 Feb 2017
Re: Opus energy Opus .... the end may be some way off. I sincerely hope so. The longer it takes for 'the penny to drop' about Hinkley, the better for us Drax holders.
Happy Rabbit
10 Feb 2017
Opus energy Glad to see this acquisition completed. It will improve the Drax business model considerably at a time when government seem to be going against biomass. They will catch on in the end. Trouble is, the end may be some way off.Regards,
nk1999
31 Jan 2017
Barclays view From ADVFN:"In what was a largely very positive note, Barclays downgraded Drax Group after a 75% share price rally over the last year as the coal power station's plans to strengthen and extend earnings "lack clarity".Final European Union state-aid approval for Drax's biomass CFD subsidy has eradicated a previous risk discount and combined with an improvement in biomass generation economics and the value-accretive acquisition of SME retailer Opus Energy add up to the "fully justified" strong share price performance.Drax's future earnings have been endowed with less volatility and higher confidence as the above moves lower exposure to volatile wholesale energy markets.Opus also vitally gives Drax a visible material earnings stream beyond 2027 when biomass subsidies end, especially if the company can also proceed with new open cycle gas turbine developments.Further optimism is taken from full year results due on 16 February, which "could herald a new dividend policy".Based on the above, plus potential additional positive catalysts such as OCGT confirmation, further improvement in generation economics and pellet plant acquisitions, Barclays increased its price target to 400p from 325p.However, analysts downgraded to 'equal weight' from 'overweight' as "the timing, quantum and probability of such upside opportunities [are] currently opaque"."
Happy Rabbit
20 Jan 2017
But on a brighter note I noted this morning, when the demand for power was peaking at about 47Gw, solar and wind combined were producing about 1.7% of what we need, and good, reliable biofuel was pumping out its regular 4.7%. Mostly from Drax, of course.We will get there in the end.
Happy Rabbit
20 Jan 2017
Re: Negative emissions And unfortunately, just today, the government announces that it is withdrawing funding for all carbon capture projects!Oh well.
in4apennyin4amil1
20 Jan 2017
Negative emissions [link] Is there a way to generate electricity not only with no emissions, but with negative emissions?It’s an idea that, after decades of being reliant on coal seems almost impossible. It’s not.A year on from the historic Paris Agreement – which sets a target of keeping global temperature rise below two degrees Celsius – innovative solutions for reducing emissions are critical. Among these, few are more promising than bioenergy carbon capture and storage (BECCS).It sounds like a straightforward solution – capture carbon emissions and lock them up hundreds of metres underground – but the result could be game-changing: generating electricity with negative emissions.Capturing carbonCarbon capture and storage (CCS) technology works by trapping the carbon dioxide (CO2) emitted after a fuel source has been used and moving it to safe storage – often in depleted oil and gas reservoirs underground.There are a number of CCS technologies available but one of the simplest is oxyfuel combustion. Fuel such as coal, gas or biomass, is burnt in a high oxygen environment and CO2 – rather than carbon (C) or carbon monoxide (CO) – is produced. Other impurities are removed and the resulting pure CO2 is compressed to form a liquid. This CO2 can then be transported via pipeline to its designated storage space, normally hundreds of metres underground.The UK is well-placed to benefit from the technology thanks to the North Sea – which has enough space to store the EU’s carbon emissions for the next 100 years.It’s a technology that can drastically reduce the emissions from fossil fuel use, but how can it be used to produce negative emissions?Two technologies, working as oneBiomass, such as sustainably sourced compressed wood pellets, is a renewable fuel – the CO2 captured as part of its life in the forest is equal to the emissions it releases when used to generate electricity. When coupled with CCS, the overall process of biomass electricity generation removes more CO2 from the atmosphere than it releases.A report published by the Energy Technology Institute (ETI) looking at the UK has suggested that by the 2050s BECCS could deliver roughly 55 million tonnes of net negative emissions a year – approximately half the nation’s emissions target.It’s not the only body heralding it as a necessary step for the future. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), stated in a 2014 report that keeping global warming below two degrees Celsius would be difficult if BECCS had limited deployment.Support is widespread, but for it to lead to a practical future, BECCS needs suitable support and investment.Morehouse BioEnergy pellet plantMills such as Morehouse BioEnergy manufacture compressed wood pellets – a sustainably-sourced fuel for BECCS power plants of the future.Positive support for negative emissionsThere are only a handful of CCS projects in operation or under construction across the world and many simply re-use rather than capture the CO2. Part of the reason is cost. It’s estimated that optimal CCS technology can cost about as much as the power station itself to install, and running it can consume up to 20% of a station’s power output. This means more fuel is needed to produce the same amount of power compared to a conventional power plant of similar efficiency.Without government support, it remains a prohibitively expensive solution for many power generators. With government support in the form of multi-decade contracts, large CCS or BECCS plants could leverage economies of scale. They could deliver energy companies and their shareholders a return on the investments in the long-term.Drax research and development Past plans by Drax could have put the company on a timeline towards becoming the world’s first large scale negative emitter of CO2. It would have achieved it firstly with the construction of a CCS power station a
in4apennyin4amil1
04 Jan 2017
Still rising steadily... Now all we need is a week or two of cold weather to spook the market and put the system to the test. That should keep the momentum we've seen in Drax's share price and give a bit of a boost to wholesale gas and power prices.
Happy Rabbit
23 Dec 2016
Re: Good news today Hopefully, the link ...[link]
Happy Rabbit
23 Dec 2016
Re: Good news today Remember that Drax are also (going to be) building four 299Mw gas fired power stations, to meet the demand peaking requirement. The biomass station is best suited for base load matching, but the four gas stations will be open cycle gas turbines, which can go from cold to flat out in a very few minutes, then shut down again. This will allow NG. to bring more intermittent renewable resources on to the grid, and Drax will be paid for the demand peaking service.BTW I had a quick look at the EU submission for the Drax cfd contract, and the reference price for wholesale energy against which the cfd strike price is compared to decide which way the make up/pay back cash is paid is not the current wholesale, spot or day ahead price, so Drax is permitted to sell above the reference price and keeps the difference. I will post a link next.Regards,Happy (if the above makes no sense, blame the pain killers!)
