Cantseethewoodsforthetrees
07 Jul 2017
Trading update Things going well.
IOMINVESTCOM
14 Apr 2017
Consumer income squeeze hits Dunelm, says Jefferies Consumer income squeeze hits Dunelm, says JefferiesFalling sales at homewares retailer Dunelm (DNLM) show there is a squeeze on consumers’ disposable income, leading Jefferies to cut its estimates.Analyst Caroline Gulliver reiterated her ‘underperform’ recommendation and reduced the target price from 650p to 515p after third quarter like-for-like sales were down 2%. The shares were trading down 2.9%, or 17.5p, at 585p at the time of writing.She said the numbers ‘confirmed a deteriorating macro-economic backdrop for UK discretionary spending’.‘We like Dunelm’s improved store format but given our weak survey results for Dunelm we conclude that the consumer slowdown will overwhelm the benefits from management’s strategy, at least for the next six-to-12 months. We cut our full-year 2018 estimated profit before tax by a further 7%.’[link]
JoseFrio
13 Apr 2017
Re: Mr Market Dunelm tanked because like-for-like revenue declined 2% in the quarter and in the year to date. According to the trading update, their market share in homeware increased but homeware sales generally are declining.So there are two important questions:- is it true that homeware sales are generally in decline? This site provides some free data ([link] but to get market sizes you need to buy a report. Any industry insiders out there? It seems to me that, since the economy is performing quite well, there is no reason for this sector to be in decline.- is the decline in homeware sales a long-term trend? If so, then Dunelm's prospects for growth are minimal and a PE ratio of 12 seems realistic. In other words, little prospect of share price increase.
malj1
13 Apr 2017
Re: Mr Market Well can't fault the q3 IMS from the point of company performance. DUN are ticking all the right boxes.Yet the sp tanks. This down to generalised fears that the house market/consumer spending will implode & trust me I'm an expert/journo/economist etc. Where have I heard that before & how did it turn out?Absent economic catastrophe in the coming year this looks wildly undervalued. A good company at an outrageous price. Mr Market looks to have this badly wrong. As ever we shall see.
IOMINVESTCOM
13 Mar 2017
Citywire Citywire A-rated dividend seeker Martin Cholwill has continued to load up on shares in home furnishings retailer Dunelm (DNLM) as the stock extends a post-Christmas fall to 20% this year.Cholwill upped his holding to just over 4% of the company worth £51.7 million at a price of 643p, down from a high of 808p in early January.The shares are held in his £1.7 billion Royal London UK Equity Income fund. The stock currently yields 4.1%. The manager has upped his holding from below six million shares a month ago.Numis is among the analysts to still see value in the stock, upping guidance from hold to buy as its price has dropped, on an unchanged target of 825p. The bulk of recent revisions have been sharply lower however, as forecasters warned of inflation eating its margins.Dunelm boss John Browett told the Daily Mail in January he expected to raise prices on imported goods by around 5% to reflect sterling devaluation.[link]
sound money
28 Feb 2017
Re: FAO Sound Money - summary impression Bill,Thanks, I appreciate that. I take the point about visibility. Think your right about looking through the short term.I'm reassured with regard to director buying and do like the concept as I do with CARD. I suspect Dunelm are further along with Internet, but rather like CARD I suspect these are a destination shop.I have decided not to invest as I'm in M&S and CARD, however I opened a CFD position at 641 and expect some upside after Director buying.RegardsM
Bill1703
28 Feb 2017
FAO Sound Money - summary impression On the face of it, an opportunity to buy in on the back of a steep SP decline and much less demanding valuation. However, this is now a pretty familiar story across UK retail, and the bigger question is how it stacks up against peers. Not obviously cheap for me on this basis.Historic P/E below 13x, but over 14x on an expected earnings decline this year; 9x historic EV/EBITDA (and likely higher this year); divi yield close to 4%, and well covered (>2x) by both EPS and FCF - at least historically.None of it too demanding - but hardly a bargain for declining earnings this year, with possibly some recovery the year after but with low visibility. And many UK sector peers are offering more attractive metrics on most of these scores. FCF generation - and special distributions of surplus capital - is a big part of the story. Historic FCF yield above 8% is obviously nice, but likely to fall this year with the profits decline, and with debt also rising the prospects for further specials must be both reduced and pushing further out. And there is no shortage of broadly similar, if not better, FCF profiles elsewhere in the sector (CARD, NXT, MKS, PETS, BON... and so on).I would have to investigate further on the advantages of the business model and just how compelling this is, longer term, compared to alternative opportunities in the sector. But they are certainly not immune to the current pressures endemic to the sector, for the foreseeable. At this stage, I see it similar in both specialisation and valuation to Card Factory, but would still prefer the latter on current prospects.Overall, I do like the sector at the moment (and have a reasonably high weighting in it), as a contrarian medium term value play with sentiment so depressed - but there are a number of ways to play this and while I suspect Dunelm will do okay from these levels, it wouldn't be that high up my list as things stand.
IOMINVESTCOM
13 Feb 2017
Re: Buy William Reeve, Non-Executive 10 February Director 2017 2,000 626p 7,000 0.00% ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- --- ---------- ---------- - Marion Sears, Non-Executive 10 February Director 2017 3,687 650.37p 105,000 0.05% Yes, well done valueman for buying and more directors have joined both you & the chairman.
IOMINVESTCOM
13 Feb 2017
Cholwill seizes on Dunelm slump Citywire A-rated veteran dividend seeker Martin Cholwill has ramped up his stake in homeware business Dunelm (DNLM) following a 20% slump in its shares over the last month, hit by broker downgrades and a slump in profits.Cholwill upped his holding to just over 3% of the FTSE 250 company worth £39.5 million at a price of 647p, down sharply from a high of 808p in early January.The shares are held in his £1.7 billion Royal London UK Equity Income fund. At its current valuation the stock yields 4.3%.Dunelm was smacked early this year by negative reassessments from both Jefferies and Peel Hunt, which cut guidance on the stock from 700p to 650p and from £10 to 800p respectively. Both brokers warned the company held a weak hand in dealing with rapid inflation. Dunelm boss John Browett told the Daily Mail last month he expected to raise prices on imported goods around 5% to reflect sterling devaluation.The shares slumped further last week after the business reported a 26% drop in profits although they rallied 2.8% on Friday to close the week at 635p.[link]
jaymac3
11 Feb 2017
Re: Buy Well done v.man - a smart move as much of this has only been a knee-jerk reaction and the price will improve albeit less dramatically than before as all the essentials are there.I also noted the assurance that extra dividends are not ruled out if the results justify these in future..Stick with it folks as I can say that the growth problems which caused some erratic store deliveries have been eradicated with increased warehouse space to improved stock deliveries.
valuemanbuyer
11 Feb 2017
Buy A bump in the road does not mean it's broken. I added along with the chairman . When the ne wsflow and earnings improves the pric will rise not just by the earnings increase but also an expanding PE. With 6% store growth , similar online growth , cold weather , ti Ning round world store and sorting out new warehouse earnings next year should hit 50p in which case I can see heading back towards £10. I sold half my holding @ £9 and am buying back now .
IOMINVESTCOM
10 Feb 2017
Re: Well done Andy Hi Wangbaudan,I was looking to average down further around 6.10 - 5.92 if it was tested / continued lower before the chairman's purchase. It could be classed as catching a falling knife but I was not going to chase the price this morning to buy on his news.Tried and could have got 6.20 first thing but in no hurry to put more in unless at a level that I would be happy with as I have been spacing out the buys.Happy watching the price recover & to see how much it moves to the upside before the mood changes. Coming upto moving average at 6.45 so expected it to meet resistance there. Think in any general market pullback we will see the 6.10 lows again. IMHOatb
Edgecourier
10 Feb 2017
Re: Well done Andy Just when I was beginning to think I was catching the falling knife rather than averaging down - or is it too early for relief? ..............Maybe , but I would have been disappointed if no directors were prepared to buy at these levels. Andy has bought big!!!And I'm keeping the faith.
wangbaudan
10 Feb 2017
Re: Well done Andy Just when I was beginning to think I was catching the falling knife rather than averaging down - or is it too early for relief?
Edgecourier
10 Feb 2017
Well done Andy Dunelm Group plc (the "Company" has been notified that on 9 February 2017, Andy Harrison, the Chairman, purchased 31,527 ordinary shares of 1p each in the Company at a price of 624.7050 pence per share.Bargain Basement Price?
