malj1
11 Oct 2019
Re: IMS q1 20 Sept homewares market trading was weak largely due to the v hot weather end Aug going into Sept. As ever in retail this kills footfall. Weather returns to normal & so does footfall. This is clearly visible in the weekly market data. Despite the ‘weakness’ GM% is now up to an all time record high. Of course there’s the brexit issue. But with a conclusion/deal then £ pressures reverse. Further optimism will return to the housing market/transactions. At that point with GM% well over 50% & the franchise strong & with headroom still to grow into then DUN will vomit cash. This remains a class act.
Boring_Bernie
11 Oct 2019
Re: IMS q1 20 malj1: What a larf. Yet another barnstorming IMS. Operating performance just about any retailer would bite their right arm off for! The sp tanks ca -20%. Incoming weakness? Well that depends. Yes no deal brexit may tank sterling further, squeezing margins. There again exit with a deal, as I think is going to happen, & you get the opposite - which will be rocket fuel for DUN. We shall see. I wouldn’t have said the trading statement was barnstorming, but it was certainly at least half decent. I think, yesterday, the market focused on the " In September trading was mixed, in part reflecting a softer homewares market." bit of the statement, which was a bit knee jerk, so I topped back up my holding a bit. If a sector is struggling, then the market, as a whole, doesn’t care much about the ones which are doing OK and will mark the whole sector down. If September’s mixed trading continues, then Dunelm’s sp will be hit again, but at least the dividend will soften any possible blows going forward BB
malj1
11 Oct 2019
Re: IMS q1 20 What a larf. Yet another barnstorming IMS. Operating performance just about any retailer would bite their right arm off for! The sp tanks ca -20%. Incoming weakness? Well that depends. Yes no deal brexit may tank sterling further, squeezing margins. There again exit with a deal, as I think is going to happen, & you get the opposite - which will be rocket fuel for DUN. We shall see.
malj1
10 Jul 2019
Re: IMS again Now that’s a barnstorming IMS. If only they were all like that. Completely overlooked/misunderstood by Mr Mkt. Phenomenal cash generation. Another spec dy incoming by end of yr, possibly upto 50p ps. We shall see.
malj1
20 Jun 2019
Re: IMS Why sell?! I’ve held these for almost a decade, during which they’ve returned ca 17% cagr net + dy + spec dy. Well run & dominate their sector. Even Amazon doesn’t really compete with DUN. They should be able to complete their rollout & who knows maybe our next chancellor might have a complete effing brainwave & run an economic policy that actually supports GDP growth (I know, I’m delusional here). Boy how these would work if the economy was actually functioning. I see a P/E exit easily at double the current price.
Boring_Bernie
20 Jun 2019
Re: IMS malj1: That’s my kind of ‘profit warning’ again. FY 19 pbt coming in min +25% yoy. Bloody profit warnings ! I displayed remarkably poor timing, and reduced my holding a couple of weeks ago at 920p because I thought it was looking a bit toppy. Ah well, I only sold ~25% of my wad here, so worse things happen ! BB
malj1
20 Jun 2019
Re: IMS That’s my kind of ‘profit warning’ again. FY 19 pbt coming in min +25% yoy. Who says retail is dead?! There’s clearly winners out there, this being one of them & a class act. Unlike so many others the mgmt. know what they’re about. Overlooked by Mr Mkt for so long! I suspect easily £11 by Xmas. There’ll be more to go after that. This has clearly got P/E exit written all over it, in about 5 yrs.
zanshin
29 Jan 2019
Re: IMS q2 fy19 Since the results the SP has been positive. It has bounced off resistance at 720 for the last week. Today it has burst through, presently to 730. If this closes around or above this level I am hopeful for a continued rise, though there is that gap at 580 to bear in mind. Some relief for us long term holders still showing a paper loss.
malj1
08 Jan 2019
Re: IMS q2 fy19 Yes that’s Darwinian economics for you: the weak die & the strong grow stronger (& gain market share). No real comment in the press today. Doesn’t fit the agenda of the death of retail. Times business editorial slags off DNLM management for their ineptitude in guiding city analyst (they wouldn’t have outperformed if only expectations had been guided higher). Can’t make this stuff up. Journo’s, knickers & twist springs to mind.
Will
07 Jan 2019
Re: IMS q2 fy19 With Steinhoff International Holdings and DFS in trouble, Dunelm might be last man standing.
malj1
07 Jan 2019
Re: IMS q2 fy19 Can’t fault that performance in any shape or form. Who says retail is dead?! With the competition imploding, there are clear further strong gains to be obtained. Most to the point this is a cash generative monster. The incremental net cash generated in the 1/2 is effectively enough to fund a doubling of the annual dy. So I expect special dividends to be reinstated before too long at a substantial level. By comparison & also store visits Debenhams look to be bust shortly. Which will badly hit Sports Direct / Mike Ashley - I think his chickens will be home to roost before this year is out. Interesting times.
jaymac3
05 Jun 2018
Thanks IB Your post is brief and to the point and I agree this is the right time to buy just as their Directors are doing. Obviously they know better than we mere mortals do!Definately time to buy and hold even if it means waiting a few months or the next trading statements.
IB Investor
04 Jun 2018
online The concentration has moved to the online, and this is where the future lies - they have positioned them,selves well to benefit from this growth - a nimble m
malj1
25 May 2018
Re: Trading update B £5-22?! Good call.
malj1
25 May 2018
Re: Trading update Yup. There's a v ltd free float of shares, so oscillations go extreme on both upside & downside. This on top of a stock market which rather febrile.LFLs have plateaued q4. Total t/o q4 I expect about -1.5%, but this would also be biased by the Achica disposal (wef 15/2/18 - so full impact on from q4 incl & onwards), so again really a plateau. Gross margin increase indicates the franchise is intact. But even though there are no new stores specific to h2/q4 they will be carrying enlarged overhead (new stores hD17 +9 st) on slightly diminished t/o performance/growth. So hJ18 I expect operating margin to remain flat at ca 10%. This will include operating losses from the WS acquisition of ca -£11m/-£14m - they are in the process turning around, but it's early yet - they should shortly achieve breakeven, which should give a considerable boost.The roll out remains eminently feasible (& indeed rents should become cheaper). What one needs is a/ for consumer sentiment (aka houseprices!) & thus footfall to improve & housing transactions to rebuild from their current plateau. The withdrawal of M&S + Tesco + Homebase from homeswares & furniture bodes well for DUN longer term.So wait for the dust to settle, suck it up & maybe buy some more.
