gretel
01 Nov 2016
Excellent news yesterday Lower interest rates, longer repayment period etc.....I topped up with a few more:[link] Research recently released this following the MP Evans takeover bid in the same sector..they have a 32p target price for DKL, which compares nicely to the current 11.5p:""Good Afternoon, Please see the summary below on MP Evans offer. Details can be found below.• KLK through the subsidiary of KLKI has offered to buy MP Evans for 640p/share in cash, implying a value of £360.5m, representing a 42% premium.• Shareholders will get an interim dividend of 2.25p a share• The offer puts MP Evans on a P/E multiple of 32x vs DekelOil’s 8x. As a result, DekelOil presents an excellent opportunity for investors seeking a balance of value and growth Optiva’s Commentary:• The acquisition news on MP Evans is very encouraging for DekelOil• Solid Growth: DekelOil has delivered solid production growth which has translated into significant earnings growth• Last of its Kind: DekelOil is the only LSE quoted palm oil developer in West Africa not already controlled by a major palm oil player• Favourable Market Dynamics: West Africa continues to show strong demand for palm oil. We expect this trend to continue and DekelOil to take advantage of the demand and supply imbalance of palm oil. Also, there is less suitable land available for planting and it is becoming more expensive for larger palm oil companies to operate in South-East Asia. It is therefore not a surprise that the deal between KLK and MP Evans comes in the wake of industry consolidation• Deep Value: In our opinion, major palm oil operators will continue to look for acquisition opportunities and West Africa will become an attractive area for strategic development. With a weaker Pound Sterling against the Euro and firmer CPO prices, we reiterate our price target of 32p, based on a very conservative P/E multiple of 10x. This target price does not give any value to potential development of the Guitry project, which is another project that could support a 60t/hr mill in due course. It is important to highlight that DekelOil will have a 13-year tax break and will not pay any tax on income generated in the Cote d’Ivoire."
gretel
17 Oct 2016
New Cantor research note Cantor's summary of the update - they retain a 24p target price, with forecasts of 1.17p EPS this year and 2.27p EPS next year, with "room to upgrade":"DekelOil (BUY) – Q3 shows a pricing recovery but volumes hit by weatherDLK LN (11.0p, TP 24.0p), Market Cap: £27mOur view: DekelOil’s Q3 production suffered from drier weather and an earlier start and finish to the peak harvesting season. Pricing showed a strong rebound following a temporary period of weak local pricing and looks even stronger going forward. Overall we remain comfortable with our full year forecasts and reiterate our BUY recommendation and target price of 24.0p.• Volumes hit by weather and timing – DekelOil’s Q3 production and sales update shows a 13.7% decline in the volume of fresh fruit bunches collected in the quarter compared with the same period a year ago. Q3 is normally the low season and the actual timing of the peak harvesting season has exacerbated the impact. We would normally expect October and November to show a strong rebound and the company reports a pick up in volumes in October. More importantly management says that the company remains on track to reach 2016 full year production targets.• But pricing recovers – Following the weaker prices seen in H1 there has been a 13% rebound in Q3 compared with the H1 average price. This puts the Q3 price at €612/t. October has continued to see price improvements with pricing now up 26% on H1 to €680/t. Palm kernel oil and cake output continues to grow and also shows better pricing in Q3. The kernal oil extraction rate improved to 42.2% from 41.0%.• Overall impact is neutral – We have modelled a FY 2016 volume reduction of 2k tonnes compared with the actual Q3 undershoot of 1.5k tonnes. If we merely assume that the Q3 outurn price is the average for Q4 (ignoring the gains in October) then we forecast that better pricing almost exactly offsets the assumed lower volume and would leave our FY 2016 forecast unchanged. Modelling shows that the price impact is slightly more beneficial but not significant enough to upgrade our forecasts at this stage. If October’s pricing is sustained then we see room to upgrade.• Valuation unchanged - We value DekelOil on a DCF basis with a cost of equity of 15% and cost of debt of 10%. This gives us a target price of 24.0p. The principal risk to our valuation remains volatility in the CPO price."
gretel
14 Oct 2016
Beaufort : Buy with 21p target Beaufort Securities forecast 1.42p EPS this year, with a 21p price target:"DekelOil Public Limited (DKL.L, 10.62p) – BuyDekelOil Public Limited, operator and 85.75% owner of the profitable Ayenouan palm oil project in Côte d'Ivoire, provided update for the 3 months ended 30 September 2016 (Q3 FY2016). During the period, revenue advanced by +9.8% to €6.7m helped by improvement in average Crude Palm Oil ('CPO') price by +0.3% to €612 per tonne (or +13% increase compared to H1 FY2016). CPO production amounted to 5,823 tonnes (Q3 FY2015: 7,301 tonnes) due to shorter peak harvesting season and unseasonally drier weather. Production for Palm Kernel Oil ('PKO') and Palm Kernel Cake ('PKC') stood at 522 tonnes and 666 tonnes, sold at €832 and €49, respectively, compared to nil same period last year. DekelOil's executive director, Lincoln Moore commented "With 34,323 tonnes of CPO produced so far this year, we remain on course to report another record full year performance in terms of CPO production."Our view: Shorter peak harvesting season and unseasonally drier weather across the West Africa and also in Asia turned out slightly disappointing for DekelOil as its CPO production fell by -20%. The Group, however, offset some of these impact by witnessing surge in price of the CPO by +13% since the interim result, which all together pushed up the revenue by c.+10%. Post the period, the Group said it saw a pick-up in volumes of fresh fruit bunches collected for processing, and therefore reaffirmed its full year production targets. Moreover, CPO prices have further improved in October, now at €680 per tonne, up +26% from H1 FY2016. With capacity to produce 70,000 tonnes of palm oil per annum, there remains room to more than double CPO production should the weather patterns and fresh fruit bunches harvest volumes normalises. Combined with the Group's encouraging sales at kernel crushing plant, ahead of expectation, with extraction rate up to 42.2% and the average sales prices up to €832 (H1 FY2016: €781), DekelOil's profitability is expected to grow going forward. This means the Group will be able to comfortably fund its scheduled debt repayments from operational cashflow, while we expect management to continue to improved debt terms. Importantly, and as previously noted, DekelOil was a Brexit winner with the appreciation of the Euro against the Pound of c.16% post Brexit translating into higher Sterling earnings. Having positioned itself so, Beaufort believes the Group will be able to support its long-term operational ambitions while also producing a sustainable surplus. As these are realised, shareholders can expect to be rewarded by management implementing a formal dividend policy. Beaufort has maintained its full year 2016E revenue and EPS forecasts of €27.5m and 1.42p respectively and retains its Buy recommendation on the shares with a price target of 21p."
gretel
13 Oct 2016
Cantor reiterate Buy and 24p price target [link]
gretel
13 Oct 2016
Good Q3 update overall Q3 production update today looks good overall to me. Lower CPO production, but "significantly higher CPO prices", good PKO production and improved prices - and October is looking really good for Q4:[link]
gretel
28 Sep 2016
Cantor say Buy and 24p target Cantor Fitzgerald say Buy and have a 24p target here compared to Beaufort's 22p:[link] are forecasting 1.17p EPS this year and 2.27p EPS next year: 2016 2017 Date Rec Pre-tax (£
EPS (p) Pre-tax (£ EPS (p) Cantor Fitzgerald Europe 21-09-16 BUY 3.22 1.17 6.34 2.27
gretel
28 Sep 2016
Great new article about DKL Terrific article today by the Private Punter in the Cambridge News, including an interview with the CEO:[link] story here looks increasingly attractive to me.
rikid
22 Sep 2016
Re: Beaufort Securities say Buy Half price shares😁
gretel
22 Sep 2016
Beaufort Securities say Buy having trimmed this year's forecast to 1.42p EPS. Which makes the current 11p share price pretty good value imho.Presumably next year's forecasts are similar to Cantor's at around 2.27p EPS:"Our view: Very much delivering on best expectations, with the commodity pricing the only real blot on DekelOil's landscape. And even this has faded somewhat given the improvement in pricing post-period end, as its international markets regained their composure following Nigeria's niara collapse that resulted in the ending of its US$ fix back in June. This meant that DekelOil missed our first half expectations and, as a result, we now have to trim our full year 2016E revenue and EPS forecasts back from €29m to €27.5m and 1.75p to 1.42p respectively. We have, however, left our 2017E and 2018E estimates unchanged in anticipation of activity and returns continuing to build significantly during these years. With capacity to produce 70,000 tonnes of palm oil per annum, there remains room to more than double CPO production. Combined with the Group's recently commissioned kernel crushing plant, which is already producing value-added products, output is on course to expand substantially going forward.Significant growth in profitability also means the Group will be able to comfortably fund its scheduled debt repayments from operational cashflow, while we expect management to continue to improved debt terms going forward.Importantly, and as previously noted, DekelOil was a Brexit winner with the appreciation of the Euro against the Pound of over 10% post Brexit translating into higher Sterling earnings. Having positioned itself so, Beaufort believes the Group will be able to support its long-term operational ambitions while also producing a sustainable surplus. As these are realised, shareholders can expect to be rewarded by management implementing a formal dividend policy. Beaufort retains its Buy recommendation on the shares and places a price target of 21p on the shares."
gretel
21 Sep 2016
Good results today imo And Cantor Fitzgerald have now increased their target price slightly to 24p (from 23.5p) and say Buy:[link] bought some of these this morning for the first time.Looking pretty encouraging online earlier on - only a maximum 50k shares available to buy, whilst you could sell more than that at the 10.75p bid.Q3 figures will be out soon, so further news flow could propel the price further upwards.
one4all
07 Jul 2016
cpo production in tonnes 2nd qtr 2015 was 12500 , 2nd qtr 2016 was 13400.....so thats not a ramp up in production at all. seem too have hit a production ceiling ..
one4all
07 Jul 2016
bit disappointed in production was expecting to get over 30k and margins to be getting better, maybe there is a maximum amount of FFB from farmers at the moment. next season we should have a first real big harvest from our own crops.
here and now
24 Jun 2016
Lincoln Moore Two new interviews…No.506 where he goes over the recent placing and acquisition and 509 where he explains why Brexit will add even more profits to DKL's bottom line. He also repeatedly talks about the approach of dividends following 2016 huge increase in production and profits[link]
here and now
19 Apr 2016
new video [link]
here and now
19 Apr 2016
Re: Milton group! They keep buying on the market, clearly they know value when they see it.
