forddrive
15 Sep 2017
Diageo Note the muted share price reaction to the strengthening of the pound.
Bill1703
15 Sep 2017
Re: Berenberg downgrades "What have you done Bill!"Yes, still got it ... evidently. The power to move markets, and have market makers scurrying back from the pub... or in the other direction, as the case may be.Of course, I picked the wrong note to write... not for the first time! Should really have written the Reckitts SELL note...And then, like any good broker, immediately begin work on the Reckitts BUY note... for publication only a few days later...
II Editor
15 Sep 2017
NEW ARTICLE: Why investors are turning their backs on UK equities "James Thomson, the respected investor who oversees the FUND:XL06:Rathbone Global Opportunities fund, has been moving his portfolio out of the UK stockmarket following last June's Brexit vote.He is not alone, with figures from the Investment ..."[link]
LK Hyman
14 Sep 2017
Re: Berenberg downgrades Abeetle,"meant 'pounding'"LOL. I think I shall console mesen with the thought that, if I value my shrunken wad in euros rather than pounds it doesn't look quite as bad as it does in pounds ... lookin' at today on a discrete basis you understand.At least DGE suffered as much as its peers. I don't think I could have stomached it if it had soared onwards and upwards, having abndoned DGE for more ULVR back whenever it was.LKH on the flybridge
abeetle
14 Sep 2017
Re: Berenberg downgrades oops messed up again - meant 'pounding'
abeetle
14 Sep 2017
Re: Berenberg downgrades What have you done Bill! 
Our DGE (and, OK, ULVR) boys have taken a heck of a beating!They drive 'em up and they drive 'em down.
Bill1703
14 Sep 2017
Re: Berenberg downgrades "... downgraded his recommendation from 'buy' to 'hold' with a target price of £25.50..."Hardly a punchy call... even in a world of distinctly unpunchy analyst calls, these days, too often...What this one needs is a proper analyst... not too many of them around any more. But I'd love to roll back the years and write this one
GE... Reiterate SELL recommendation ... target price £19.70."I have no expectation that the US people will be drinking less booze, regardless of ethnic origin... god knows, I know I won't be! But it don't matter none ... I ain't going to pay 24x FX-inflated EPS for a mature business showing only minimal underlying growth - and nor should you!"Particularly with all that (temporarily) FX-inflated FCF burning a hole in Ivan's intricately tailored pocket... which fills me with apprehension, and George Clooney with euphoria."It is a short research note, as many of the best ones are... but I think it pretty much covers it?
LK Hyman
14 Sep 2017
Re: Berenberg downgrades If the article is right that people will drink more premium booze that may encourage Ivan to sell some of the tail brands. It'll be interesting to see if he does and what he gets for them.Fingers crossed he doesn't do another Bushmills and then think "Ooh! I need a good Oirish whiskey ... I'd better invent one .... wasn't there once a distillery called Roe & Co that everyone's forgotten all about?"LKH on the flybridge
gamesinvestor
14 Sep 2017
Re: Berenberg downgrades "Diageo (DGE) on the back of long-term predictions on the reduced consumption of alcohol."I reckon this is total bxllxcks, as everyone will be sitting around with nothing to do because robots will be doing all the work, driverless cars will mean you can go to the pub whenever you want and boredom will drive everyone to drink !!Games -- on a serious note though I doubt their predictions will have anything to do with the short term overvaluation of DGE -- more likely the currency shift has more to do with it and Ivan's sqaundering of shareholder funds have not hit home yet to the majority of complacent shareholders.
IOMINVESTCOM
14 Sep 2017
Berenberg downgrades Berenberg has downgraded beverage company Diageo (DGE) on the back of long-term predictions on the reduced consumption of alcohol.Analyst Javier Gonzalez Lastra downgraded his recommendation from ‘buy’ to ‘hold’ with a target price of £25.50 on the shares, which fell 19p to £25.60 yesterday.He said over the past decade, US alcohol consumption had increased – despite decreases in western European markets – but this was forecast to reverse in the next 10 years due to older millennials becoming more health conscious, a maturing of female consumption, and a change in the ethnic mix.‘The data suggest Americans will drink less, but more premium. Beer, spirits, and wine producers need to adapt, with “tail brands” increasingly becoming a drag on financial performance,’ he said.‘We calculate Diageo, which we downgrade to “hold”, has the largest tail of brands – 17% of sales.’[link]
gamesinvestor
13 Sep 2017
Off Topic - PurpleBricks This article tries to take a stab at a possible future value of the business based on a reasonable if not perhaps optimistic set of assumptions -- that Purple Bricks wins 10% of a static UK estate agency market at a defined future (not too distant) date.[link] this is number 9 on Woody's list, I wonder how much similarity in his investment analysis there is between this and his own -- and for all the other in his top 40 (I'm assuming the other 95 stock picks are a stab in the dark, as there wouldn't be enough IT power in his company to work on all those as well as his top 40).Any how, I digress from the main point, the model described shows that based on the assumptions, the mature business once reached might be valued at approximately 328p once all the 10% of the market sales have been won and it's then a mature and stable (inflation linked growth) company. Big IF yes?The value, or more to the point, the price of the shares at close today are approx 391pComments welcome as to whether you think there is any validity in this approach?Games -- anyone up for a similar analysis of their own top 10? -- I must make a start he thinks lol !!
abeetle
12 Sep 2017
Re: Another good reason... Buy-back EPS ... Yeah, it's kinda worrying, not to mention he who I cannot bear to name! But the status quo is sure looking more attractive to me.the more this hard brexit stuff drags on.But enough of that- the inflation increase linking to the £ rising sure knocked DGE today- and others of course - but after the sharp rise, I guess linked to the share buyback promise, the trading bots will maybe be bearing down soon.
gamesinvestor
12 Sep 2017
Re: Another good reason... Buy-back EPS ... " I agree with Nick and Vince"I couldn't agree with anything either of them ever uttered. Never has there been two more disingenous politicians amongst generally disingenous politicians.Games -- he uttered not disingenously !!
abeetle
12 Sep 2017
Re: Another good reason... Buy-back EPS ... Well a known known is the faint possibility that this government will make a total hash of Brexit.As to that there are also many unknown unknowns - as to the known unknowns I'd hope against hope they've given them some thought.At the moment - sad though it is - I'm coming round to say I agree with Nick and Vince and (aaaaaagh) someone else!
Bill1703
12 Sep 2017
Re: Another good reason... Buy-back EPS ... "... but didn't (I think) specify the price at which the bonds were actually sold..."Top marks, LKH, you are indeed right... bonds not actually issued for another couple of days, so we will have to wait for the actual market pricing details.But I would be very surprised if I have to revise my original point... to wit, that while ultra low bond yields undoubtedly put pressure on pension deficits and the financing implications thereof, they also mean that these, and other, financial liabilities are made considerably easier to meet and manage than they otherwise might be, and for quite a long forward horizon...So yet again, I go as far as to say... the market is overly concerned about pension deficits, at the moment. Although some degree of concern is obviously warranted... and it's hardly a surprise, as this particularly paranoid, nervy market is overly concerned about a whole series of issues. IMHO, natch... I am also well aware that it is the things that nobody is currently worried about at all that will probably prove to be the biggest problems... it was ever thus! As to what these might be... your guess is as good as mine, we cannot know - otherwise my point here would be necessarily invalidated!
