gamesinvestor
22 Aug 2017
A Woodford Fundholders Response """I am becoming increasingly concerned by the mistakes being made. I don’t say this lightly having followed Neil for many years (and my late father before me back to the nineteen eighties).There is something clearly wrong when a company which makes up 4% of your portfolio loses 65% of its value in a day, due to problems many of which you already knew about. Where was the risk assessment? Were there no other companies which could provide similar returns with less potential downside?The old mantra that “We don’t believe that today’s fall in share price is justified etc etc ” is something I would only expect to hear once in a blue moon, not on a regular basis.Has Neil got his fingers in too many pies?Is he investing in too many companies?Is there anyone at Woodford Investment Management challenging Neil’s decisions?When a footballer has a bad game but thinks he was brilliant you know he is going nowhere. The same applies in all walks of life."""
Bill1703
22 Aug 2017
Re: Difficult to Rationalise "I'm having a lot of difficulty finding anything... anything at all."Well, LKH, no harm on sitting on a big cash pile for a while... though not for too long, of course. And I'm not convinced we're going to see that major market correction that some seem so certain of, the conditions are just not flashing amber IMHO, let alone red.But still plenty of scope for considerable sector and individual stock gyrations and rotations, of course, in what may be a flattish market for a while yet...For your consideration (I am nothing if not persistent):I can see a case for LGEN in such a portfolio - and if not, then an Aviva, or a Pru (LGEN may still be the best of that little lot at the mo, though I myself hold AV.)VOD - not as cheap as it was, of course, but still decent headroom, with incremental news flow looking fairly positive.ITV - very cheap now, gotta be limited downside, and it will likely swing back on any upbeat economic news - if the bid doesn't get it first. M&S - yes, I know, but you'd be disappointed if I didn't mention it... world class brand with a Poundland price tag, and just look at that FCF!Whitbread - hasn't done much of late, but the figures remain consistently strong.All these are decent "value" plays for me at current levels, with longer term strengths and "story" - and none of them punts! Though I have a few of those too, if you are really struggling....
gamesinvestor
22 Aug 2017
Re: Difficult to Rationalise "I'm having a lot of difficulty finding anything ... anything at all."Moi aussi mon ami - it's intensely difficult.Having moved 20 odd % into cash I've been looking for a sensible watch list.So far I've put placeholder stakes in Alliance Pharma and might big up.Shire is a gift, but I'm already in it - innit?IG Group looks like a winning hand - I went wellie deep in this and I'm up 30%Britvic - ditto but looking fully priced as of nowCard - similar to BritvicVictrex - doesn't look like it's peeked yet.I only wish I'd sunk more into these -- Microsoft + 64% (3.4% of my wad)Apple + 66% (2.2%)Novo Nordisk +34% (3.1%) - just completed successful trial of type2 diabetes drugPayPal +68% (2.2%)Games -- everything's easy in hindsight !!
gamesinvestor
22 Aug 2017
Re: Difficult to Rationalise "Importantly, this is not a credit quality problem – it is an operational issue which has been self-inflicted by the company."He's really lost it this time."""Indeed, across the UK, I believe that credit trends are improving, as evidenced in the recent bank reporting season.""">> Amazing statement - consumer credit has significantly increased per household since 2008 and salaries have not kept pace with inflation even at this low level.Games - I wonder if he bought some more PFG today?
LK Hyman
22 Aug 2017
Re: Difficult to Rationalise Games,"Don't you mean the bottom 5 of your top 10, or are you reconsidering the lot."Moi? Reconsider? How very dare you!Yes, I do mean the bottom 5 of my top 10. I'm having a lot of difficulty finding anything ... anything at all. I doubt that Treatt will make it; that capex programme of theirs (both in Bury St E and Florida) is quite demanding. I note that they have a fair bit of Spirax-Sarco kit in Bury by the way, though steam is a bit old hat innit? I'm considering LGEN but worry that I don't understand what the sam heck they're doing. Yeah, Halma has risen too far ... and the management have effectively stopped adding to their holdings (see the Halma board). I'm also considering putting RIT Capital on the list. That Jake Rothschild is a downy old bird and he has a couple of hundred million quids' worth of his own chump change in the company, which has to be reassuring.I'll keep you posted.LKH etc
LK Hyman
22 Aug 2017
Re: Difficult to Rationalise Games,"I'm lookin' forward to his next commentary on [im]Provident"Well Woody has now spoken and, sure 'nuff, "it was undervalued yesterday and it's now even more undervalued" apparently, according to the words of Woodentop.So that's all right LOL.LKH on the flybridge will not be buying provident Financial, no sirree!
gamesinvestor
22 Aug 2017
Re: Difficult to Rationalise ""still working on that Top Ten""LK - Don't you mean the bottom 5 of your top 10, or are you reconsidering the lot.So far you have RDSB; ULVR; National Grid; Imperial Brands and RIO.Treatt not got a place?Halma -- or has it risen too far?Qinetiq -- far too risky and full of white coaty theorists Fullers -- steady eddie but has to be an outsider of a 10 placeGSK -- Would not be in my top 100 -- I only have 35 so there is a view!!Spirax Sarco -- Oh why did I never home in on this?Games -- Come to think of it, why did I sell Treatt -- You eejit games!
gamesinvestor
22 Aug 2017
Re: Difficult to Rationalise "I'm lookin' forward to his next commentary on [im]Provident: "Well his June update was published on 14th July. His July update is nowhere to be seen and it's the 22nd today so he's a bit late -- possibly he doesn't know what to write given that his top 4 are now AZN - hammered, Imperial Brands (down but not out); Legal and General (a pension timebomb in the making - IMHO); and number 4 is Provident Financial (was 4.59%) so he must have lost hundreds of millions today alone.5 - Abbivie - doing OK6 - Prothena - 27% down from it's year high7. Capita -- about half price from when Woody bought it 8. Lloyds - Lol !-- well down on his entry point -keep and eye out for queues Woody9. Therevance Biopharma - Also half price10. Purplebricks (looks like it's getting shorted to the moon and back)11. Burford capital -- the best one here so far12. Benevolant AI (Unquoted) so it's anybody's guess (Woody knows about AI then?)13. Babcock -- 1400 ---- now down to 813 and still falling14. Stobart -- Woody is a trainspotter as well15. Alkermes - OK but still 20% down from peak16. Taylor Wimpy -- why wait to the top of the housing market to buy it?17. New River REIT -- Good luck with that when everyone is going online18. Lancashire -- Finances look very dodgy here19. G4S - Got trashed and then recovered and in the process of being trashed again20. Next - He's lost an absolute fortune on Next from his entry at the 75xx to 80xx level.In his next 20 he has :-Allied Minds - tanked Drax - go figurePayPoint - going nowhere and well down after losing mobileThe AA - Oh dearThe other 95 stocks (yes he now has 135 stocks - bigger than a tracker fund) seem inconsequential as they are so small in contributions -- 45 of the list are unquoted companies in an equity income fund.Games -- Good luck if you are in this fund
