macbonzo
07 Jan 2018
Re: Sell to I don't think the High st is doomed, however, the British High St, looks like a commodity and the out of town shopping centres are no better. Having three bookmakers, a costa, two opticians, Carphone Warehouse, EE, Vodafone, O2, Greggs, Subway and Boots, shows a lack of imagination. Similarly, a out of town shopping centre with the two anchor tennants - M&S and Sainsbury/Tesco then fill in the spaces does not constitute choice. In fact BAA can do a better job.You don't have to travel to far within Europe to see the right mix of brands and independents combined with relaxing urban architecture can attract shoppers. Stockholm, Turin, Innsbruck, Bolzano, Zurich, Freiburg, all manage to find the right balance. These towns have independent bookshops, which serve great coffee, proper newsagents, bespoke tailors, pedestrianised areas and parks. In fact, in my local town, in Piedmont, I went into my 'giornalista' and asked her if she could get me a copy of the weekend FT. She produced a huge folder, looked down an alphabetical list, and saw it was printed in Milan. She had it two days later.Until Cushman Wakefield, Ryden & Partners et al realise, that, to encourage footfall, you need to have the right mix of shops and a pleasant environment, then people will shun the British high street.
Gooffy
07 Jan 2018
Re: Leases I sold last week.I think the big question would a new buyer be able to amend the leases pretty sure they couldn't do worse than current management, I feel sorry for the staff who are very dedicated.The CEO who bought share was CEO of Bradford and Bingley which was bailed out, wish I had known that before I bought .Mike Ashley in at 80p which is why I held.
Bill1703
07 Jan 2018
Re: Sell to £1 "I agree old fashioned department stores and large bookstores are doomed ... But I think there are a few companies on the High Street with a future - Primark (ABF), Next, M and S, even the grocers... Truth is people like shopping......."Sure, Online will continue to grow its overall share... but only gradually, and likely at a decreasing rate (in % terms if not absolute numbers). The experience in grocery is a case in point - yes, online share still growing, but it's still a LOT smaller than the excitable projections suggested it would be by now, 15 years or so ago when Ocado and Tesco were making their first significant strides. The key will be "right-sizing" (and right-shaping) your physical footprint and online presence... If you can gradually reduce your floorspace, in line with trend, while keeping your online service fresh and fully functional, you will likely do just fine. M&S seem properly focused on this now (though execution remains uncertain), Next to an extent, likewise the grocers, albeit to varying degrees. Click-and-collect will be a key component - the customer volunteering to assume a large part of the cost. And many will remain happy to do so... because, as THB says, people do like to shop!The DEB issue is they can't cut footprint - and costs - fast enough, due to onerous lease terms (both in term and rental rate). Eventually the rental market will collapse, and it'll be a buyer's market indeed for anyone wanting to set up on the High Street... you only need so many Pound shops, the bookies are going online too, as are the estate agents... you can try opening new pubs and restaurants but it's already hard enough to make any money from these. Bad news for the commercial property companies, but no reason why they shouldn't have to "right-size" too...The question is, can DEB survive long enough for this scenario to play out? Not all physical retailers are going bust, we could be surprised how few do (IMHO) - but there will undoubtedly be a steady trickle, including some household names (it was ever thus... nothing actually new in this trend). Probably touch and go for DEB... with a few twists and turns before the decade is out.
tomhawbuck
07 Jan 2018
Re: Sell to £1 I agree old fashioned department stores and large bookstores are doomed - in the US Barnes and Noble don't seem to be doing too well and nor do the department stores according to Saturday's FT. But I think there are a few companies on the High Street with a future - Primark (ABF), Next, M and S, even the grocers. I couldn't park at my local M and S on Saturday it was so busy. Truth is people like shopping.......
DoctorInternet3
06 Jan 2018
Sell to £1 As long as you can short short short and hold to £1 you will win: - the High Street is for the likes of Poundland, Paddy Power, EE, Three Mobile and Heart research.. period. The Internet is for Currys PC World, Ebay. Dolce Gusto and Amazon. For Debenhams and House of Frazer: the only way is down from now on, (like BHS and Woolworths PLC!)...Internet Rules OK
Einstein the Second
06 Jan 2018
Re: NEW CEO NEEDED Ian Cheshire buying, he must be backing Sergio to turn the supertanker around.It is currently steaming full ahead towards the land of negative margins.Got a bit burnt on this myself, but good luck to evryone in at this price.
forwardloop
05 Jan 2018
Debenhams 'structurally challenged', [link]
forwardloop
05 Jan 2018
Divi cut on the way [link] Bank reiterated a ‘hold’ rating on Debenhams and cut its target price to 30p from 33p, citing weaker margins.Citigroup also cut its target price for Debenhams to 30p, leaving its rating at ‘neutral’. The broker lowered its pre-tax profit forecast for the year by 32%.“Our outer year forecasts reduce by a similar amount and we cut our full year dividend assumption to 2.0p from 3.4p,” it said.
the rag
05 Jan 2018
Re: NEW CEO NEEDED [link]
macbonzo
04 Jan 2018
Re: Debenhams take over target now I think the UK supermarket sector is rather different. It is was economists would term as 'perfect competition'. In fact, I doubt there is another country where the consumer has such an array of choice and quality when it comes to food. Ok, I accept that you have M&S and Waitrose at the top end and Lidl, Aldi and Coop at the budget end, but, I would argue Tesco, Sainsburys and Asda form the bulk of the market. I think Justin King helped sainsburys to gain market share from Tesco.The problem debenhams have is that whatever they offer someone else does it better (whether in terms of cost or quality) than they do. That's just bricks and mortar retailers, too. John Lewis and HoF are miles better on quality and their stores are much better laid out. There are a plethora of budget retailers . They are getting squeezed at both ends.
cashpharma
04 Jan 2018
Re: Debenhams take over target now I am not a shareholder but why would it need a CVA if its making 60m profit a year and has very little debt(or pension liability)?
TX2
04 Jan 2018
Re: Debenhams take over target now Nobody in their right mind would buy Debenhams in its present form;as I have tried to point out it is locked ino long expensive leases it cannot restructure,relocate,resize its stores to meet current needs.It will survive but probably only after a CVA to shed leases & refinancing;but I fear this is likely to leave little value for present shareholders.
cashpharma
04 Jan 2018
Re: Debenhams take over target now Not sure about the idea that there is never any profitable middle ground between cheap /low quality and expensive/top quality. All the analysts said that about Sainsbury a few years ago when in fact it was trading very successfully with its mid point offering.
Gooffy
04 Jan 2018
Sold Another IC blunder following Carillion, I do wonder what there analysts do apart from look at numbers. I did feel positive when looking at the shop over Christmas it was busy tills were busy however I did note the gifts seemed rather expensive. The Coffee shop is always busy. To me he is experimenting rather than doing it I bet Archie Norman turns Marks round very quickly already got rid of finance director!!Agree it might get taken over but I have lost confidence in this CEO
macbonzo
04 Jan 2018
Re: Debenhams take over target now The retail market is cut throat and you need to know where your niche is. All these years back when I was at business school you were told that you either went for low cost leadership (ford) or you went for high end differentiated niche (Mercedes). The one place you did not want to be was caught in the middle (Rover). That is where Debenhams seems to be. You are competing against Selfridges and HoF at one end and Primark, Asda H&M at the other end. At least with Mike Ashley you know that it will be 'pile them high sell them cheap' Debenhams has no focus. Maybe it will have to go down the BHS route.
