Fatlunch
25 Oct 2016
News Let's hope we get some exciting news soon.Good luck all long term holders.FL
The buzz
19 Oct 2016
Re: Thermal Coal Price A smidgen of a rise on very low turnover. Spread shown as 2.86-3.24p but dummy buy just now for 100k shares got a quote of 3.0446p a share. Still too low in my books - and yesterday the price for Nov 2016 delivery rose to $91,2mt.That said, I am wondering if it is better to restart an existing CZA coalfield rather than buy into a producing coal field when the price of coal has gone up (and could then fall back again!). On retrospect it is unfortunate that the Universal Coal deal did not complete, as then CZA would have benefited from the higher coal price - albeit much of the coal production was supposedly at a fixed price. Conversely - if coal fields are now worth more - then CZA's coal fields will be of interest to others. Not necessarily a take-over of CZA, but the sale of one of its coalfields, possibly with a royalty element, giving cash to develop some of the others?The B
The buzz
18 Oct 2016
Thermal Coal Price I am surprised that the share price has not moved with the improved prospects for thermal coal:-[link] spot price went up yet again yesterday:-[link] spot price for November has now reached $87mt,Aha, I finally seem to have found a web site for coking coal prices:-[link] always its a case of what will the price be when one manages to get a mine back in production. I would have thought that Vele and Mooiplaats should not take all that long to restart, but one does not want high start up costs, find that the coal price has fallen back and then have an expensive decommissioning process. Either way, the value of the coal in the ground must be higher now than just a few months ago?The B
The buzz
12 Oct 2016
New Director - China Representative Sounds like we have a really good experienced and knowledgeable new non-executive director joining CZA from its largest share holder (HEI). Sounds like a typical Chinese approach of spending time and really getting to know a company. I observe the coincidence of his appointment and the rocketing price of coal?The B
The buzz
11 Oct 2016
Quarterly Price For Coking Coal Just spotted $200mt being agreed for metallurgical coal for the next quarter - this is the key price as it is what miners are contracted to for the big customers:-[link] must make CZA very attractive now - especially as buying coal mines is now in play:-[link] puzzles me is the apparent low turnover in CZA on the LSE, It strikes me as almost a one way bet at the moment. ie Not much scope to lose but the prospect of a windfall gain.The B
hedger123
11 Oct 2016
Re: KEPCO-led consortium to build $2.1 billion thermal power plant in South Africa Let's not forget Chinese investment as well! No idea what the takeover price would be!!! 20p
2bozmo
11 Oct 2016
KEPCO-led consortium to build $2.1 billion thermal power plant in South Africa [link] on our doorstep. Someone suggesting on other boards that someone like Exxaro (or Chinese/Indian counterpart) might take us out given recent move in coal prices
The buzz
06 Oct 2016
Mooiplatts Further to my previous post, I have been digging up some history re Mooiplaats. The closure announcement was :-file:///C:/Users/Peter/Downloads/mooiplaats_colliery_care_maintenance_3jun13.pdfAt 3rd June 2013 I believe that the price of thermal coal was about $81mt:-[link] price of thermal coal at Richard's Bay on Wednesday for immediate delivery was $76.6mt:-[link] although we really need a price well clear of US$81mt to consider re-opening Mooiplaats, we are not that far away now - plus the muddying factor that the US$/Rand exchange rate has changed considerably in the mean time. In June 2013 it was about 10Rand to 1US$[link] current exchange rate is about 13.8Rand to 1US$:-[link] it too naive to say that $81 in 2013 equated to 810 Rand, but 810Rand in 2016 is 810/13.8= US$59 - well below the current price of $76.6mt. I am sure that it is not quite that simple, but illustrates my point that Mooiplaats may not be quite the lame duck that it has been for the last 3 years - as a result of the price of coal improving and the value of the Rand falling in value.Oh, I just came across this article:-[link] suggests that China may have cut back supply too much causing a shortage - no mention of the low quality polluting Chinese coal that they were trying to stop using - but one needs to head the possibility that the current high coal price may not last for much more than the next few months. That said the analysts are all upping their projected price for coal in 2017:-[link] B
The buzz
06 Oct 2016
Re: Good news... Decided to top up. Just bought 100k at 2.93p on the ICAP S and D Exchange, but is not shown up on the LSE trades.Just did a dummy deal for a further 100k shares and still got a quote of 2.93p, so here is a buying opportunity, so I am showing a speculative weak buy as this is a good price and the current price (that continues to rise) is transforming the fundamentals of CZA's positionPlus I know from experience with Western Canadian Coal a few years ago - when the price of coking coal was shooting up, the share price just did not move, until all of a sudden it shot up to incredible levels, So I am anticipating a re-evaluation with CZA. I made a considerable sum of money before so fingers crossed that I can repeat the trick this time as well?? Oh my other key interest is with APF - they have huge interests in royalty payments from coking coal - they have been moving up quite a bit of late - so it's CZA's turn now, We just need a repeat of exceptionally bad weather in Australia near Newcastle Bay to dislocate their coal exports - they have just had a really bad storm in nearby S Australia - so it is not beyond the realms of feasibility.Just talked myself into buying some more. Just bought 105k at 2.93p - this time of the LSE. Dummy deal gave 2.923p so the higher turnover must be narrowing the spread, I had better log out of my share account before I buy even more!The B
The buzz
06 Oct 2016
Re: Good news... Well spotted!As for thermal coal - I keep on droning about the higher price of thermal coal at S Africa's Richard Bay terminal keep on going up:-[link] suspect that one of the key rivers - apart from the oil price is China has been forced to reduce pollution and increase safety in their coal mines. The results has been a significant reduction in the production levels of their low quality coal - and the demand for quality Australian coal has increased - and priced are noticeably higher at their Newcastle Port (compared to Richard Bay):-[link] This makes S African coal competitive even with longer transportation distances - and this should help the upward price movement of S African thermal coal.I must check at what level will Mooiplaats start to become economical to start mining again - either was it should be worth a lot more now than the last time that they nearly sold it.The B
Jitter
05 Oct 2016
Good news... [link]
The buzz
29 Sep 2016
Re: Coal Price Noticed that yesterday there was a jump of $3mt to $73.35mt for delivery in October, with a similar rise for most other months:-[link] there are some doubts whether the oil price is on a sounder footing:-[link] underlying story is that the price of oil is less likely to fall back significantly and therefore one would assume that coal will become more competitive.The B
The buzz
27 Sep 2016
Coal Price The coal price is central to whether CZA mines coal and makes a profit. I have just noticed this interesting iii article about APF and it gives quite a bit of information that is pertinent to CZA:-[link] particular a spot price of $200mt for coking coal. The price for thermal coal is also doing well:-[link] an apparent rolling wave of higher prices moving forward.High quality low polluting coal is the key - (China has been closing down many mines that produced polluting coal, uneconomic or unsafe). This is where CZA stands in a good position. Of course the jewel in the crown is always met. coal so high prices there are very interesting.I am not sure what repercussions this has on ESCOM puchasing/ prices, nor the slow meltdown of the ANC - perhaps one of our S African followers can advise?One of the reasons quoted for a weak steel price in China was a slowdown in the housing market. Well judging by his article there are still places were demand far outstrips supply:-[link] of course there is the oft mentioned need for the USA to make big investments in it overhaul of its infrastructure - but that is another story.The B
hedger123
22 Sep 2016
Re: Share Price On LSE website, it's been suggested that company are aiming to have cash generating asset nailed on by end of October. Conference call and quarterly update & results next Friday, 30/9/16
HPC Follower
22 Sep 2016
Re: Share Price The CZA share price weakness is due to the failure to close the merger with Universal and the lack of news since.I will continue to HOLD as the prospects remain good, at least whilst the current senior management are in place - since they do seem to know what they are doing and do typically justify the decisions they take.
