FRTEB
16 Mar 2018
Re: Whats causing crash?? The fall in the sp does seem excessive on no news. Either someone knows something that the rest of us don't (it wouldn't be the first time) or the price is being manipulated down so someone can mop up on the cheap. I continue to hold CRST as my only housebuilder. Baring a calamity that's about to crawl out of the woodwork I'm leaning towards recent sp movement being a buying opportunity. Time will tell.
malj1
16 Mar 2018
Re: Whats causing crash?? I suspect this is Mr Mkt continuing his record of successfully predicting 7 out of the last 2 recessions. Bacause as any fule kno the house market is gonna crash. Other than a/ there's corporate specific problem, which I doubt, or b/ the house market implodes, which I also doubt, then this is starting to look v v attractive. Eye open for the AGM next week. But there has been a general sell off in builders for all the usual reasons by the usual suspects. Depends whether you're a trader or an investor. We shall see.
Gooffy
16 Mar 2018
Whats causing crash?? Ex divi but this is a big fall on no news
FRTEB
27 Feb 2018
Re: Added to my portfolio today Good review. I previously held Barratt (a good while ago) and Galliford but sold both. I think out of the housebuilders CRST is a good choice but then I would say that 
Biggest worry is Woodford - increasingly think the city has it in for him.
marktime1231
27 Feb 2018
Added to my portfolio today CRST is not exposed to the problems of infrastructure companies like GFRD, nor the premium London slump which is going to hit BKG performance. Building around London and the SE remains as good a prospect as any, and CRST is "competitive" with gross margins c. 20% and content to work on projects with a big social housing content - just won a £100M+ deal in Farnham.Rated by IIT who pick winners ... also by Woodford who has been "serially unlucky", but then he has to get one right just to prove the rule. Another company starting with the dreaded C, maybe this one will break my losing streak.Paying down refinanced debt, although the cash position is propped up by what looks to be slow payment of trade creditors. Reasonable land bank, pipeline, work in progress. Forecasts are solid rather than spectacular. Says outlook is depressed by Brexit headwinds but I don't see how or why especially, just mantra? Have I missed something? I hope CRST haven't been selling houses on flawed leasehold terms.PSN is more profitable with a peaky 28% gross margin but that is priced in on a sp up 23% over the year from £21 to £26+ and a p/e 12+ as good as builders get. Dividends promised to increase but they needed to catch up. More exposed if there is a cooling of demand for more expensive new homes? An unresolved image backlash against undue exec bonus payments? Govt may react to criticism that its schemes to boost new buyers have been used to inflate profits by some builders ... and PSN looks most exposed to that criticism, and frustration that affordable homes are not being built at the rate which voters want. My suggestion builders pay a £10K levy to Shelter etc for each of the 9,000 or so rough sleepers in the UK, and a £1M fine deducted from exec bonus pools when one dies on the street - not yet adopted as govt policy.So actually on paper at least the scope for CRST to improve margin and business activity should be stronger than other builders already more profitable?The CRST sp has not recovered from market wobble and muted response to fair results in Jan, still sits 10% lower than last March. Looks cheap to me at 490p on a forward p/e of 7.5 and 6.75% yield, 21.8p of which is just two weeks away. Consensus is fair value 550-610p, and I think broker sentiment is too gloomy, maybe on fears of limited prospects or maybe because the dividend while covered 2x is being pushed faster than earnings growth. Only one shorter at 0.79%.IF prospects remain no worse than solid and IF there are no hidden gremlins this stock ticks all the boxes of a cheap buy.
Gooffy
22 Feb 2018
Hmmm Results good, persimmon and barratt goodshares downmust be the interest rate risk and brexit.Not selling might buy more
malj1
25 Jan 2018
Re: Results today Yes.Not quite sure I'd describe operating margin as 'under pressure.' There was quite a discussion of this y'day - you might want to listen to the mtg playback along with looking at the charts.In fact tot co op% rose a tick in the fy & hO17. Op% (& asp) are affected by a couple of issues. A/ exiting-mothballing central London - this is a one off which at some point recovers, as there is currently effectively no development in central London (but I don't know when). B/ currently unusually high % soho units (just under 1/4 total sales - with low asp & no profit) due to opening a lot of new sites - this will invert.But mainly CRN are about to radically increase unit output. To give themselves some insurance in the event of market weakness/asp falls on this they have step changed l/b buying to increase jv & partner land. They forego some margin but get far better deferred payment terms + l/b price flexibility (downwards) in the event of asp falls. So it's a case of op% lightly down but they end up being an asset-lite model & thus ROCE up. On this basis their £ spend will enable to buy more l/b units than previously.In the background they like all main builders are still able to buy l/b at prices that exceed their hurdle rates (you should think why that is). Housing stock in the 2ndary mkt is at the lowest level since about the 1950s. New build looks to hitting capacity constraints about now at a level of 200k units pa for the UK. Pricing pressure will re-emerge sooner or later.
PacificSailor
25 Jan 2018
Re: Results today Having read their presentation, margins may be under pressure, but there is more product which leads to increased profits. With the government pressed to support housing and CN showing that it is competitive, the investment case is a no-brainer surely?
Greyinvestor
24 Jan 2018
Results today Results out today. Housebuilders are losing popularity and have probably topped out, EPS wise. But if you think that EPS will remain fairly static, they are still good value.I'm holding for yield. It's a bit risky, because margins could fall and Capex has increased, but I still think that the shares rate a Hold.So a Hold for me. 33p of divi/520 approx = 6.3% yield.520/65p eps = P/E of about 8.
II Editor
19 Dec 2017
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BuySel
19 Nov 2017
Re: The bounce is on nice rise again last Friday and now news of the Chancelor is going to give us good news on the Budget...........The SUNDAY TIMES -19th November 2017,Budget: Philip Hammond pledges to build 300,000 homes a yearPhilip Hammond will use the budget this week to announce plans to build 300,000 homes every year — the equivalent of a city the size of Leeds.The chancellor has revealed that he will unveil billions of pounds of extra investment, plus new powers and planning rules to ensure construction firms start building on sites that already have planning permission.In an interview with The Sunday Times, Hammond said the government would stage an “intervention” because the market for developed land “is broken” with 270,000 unbuilt residential planning permissions in London alone.Hammond vowed to do “whatever it takes” to get builders building and pledged that “the next generation will have the same opportunities as their parents to own a home ”..........
BuySel
16 Nov 2017
The bounce is on From the start of the day, plenty of profit taking as it was reaching higher, thee best was 531pcurrently 522.50p as profit taking still goes on after the large riseBest performer of the house builder
PacificSailor
15 Nov 2017
Re: Hmmm I can't see it staying down for long.Other builders' reports have not been so good, which has perhaps cooled the sector.As you say this is a buying opportunity, especially as there are no recorded shorts on Shorttracker.
malj1
15 Nov 2017
Re: Hmmm Well I've trawled the IMS & was in the conference call. I saw nothing to warrant this sell off. CRN to me looks wildly anomalously (under)valued both in general & compared to any other builder. For this valuation to hold true you'd have to assume a/ part of the business will comprehensively implode & b/ they comprehensively fail to deliver on their s-curve. So .......... gulp .............. big big buying @ £4-80 & I'll probably be back again. We shall see!
Greyinvestor
15 Nov 2017
I agree All the housebuilder results are similar. Everything flattening off. Directors clearly did sell at the top.But....the valuations are exceptionally modest, the yields are excellent. In my view they are still good Value stocks.There are, of course, risks with interest rates and the Help to Buy scheme. In my view they are priced in.There is also the seasonal factor. Housebuilder shares always seem to fall now and rise in the spring.
