malj1
17 Oct 2018
Pre Close Update I agree your broad view, though my eps projection is lower than yours. That said if they scale back land buying, given reduced sales, & they already have at least 11 yrs cvr, then cash flow remains strong protecting the dy. CRN are oriented to greater London/London/se/somewhat premium pricing (partly inherent in the regional focus). They have been hit by 3 issues. A/ 2015 changes to SDLT making premium transactions significantly more expensive (which has also made the secondary market moribund, again hitting CRN as any premium priced sales tend to be more reliant on ‘chains’ which will clearly be harder to form/achieve). B/ progressive dis-incentivisation of investor sales via gov’t moves mainly on SDLT +. C/ brexit fears, now I think at peak panic, stalling transactions. Only C has really ramped up in the last couple months. So CRN is really a call on London & how you think this will perform post any brexit settlement. The general housing supply-demand imbalance is worse in London than anywhere else in the UK. Enquiries remain at record highs. Converting those to sales has worsened. If London ceases as a global city then CRN is a sell (along with UK plc). If there is a recovery of sentiment post whatever brexit settlement then CRN is a steal. Prime central London properties have already shown a nascent recovery in recent months. This may be a ‘stats quirk’ or maybe ‘smart money’ is calling this as maximum fear/cheapest prices.
Greyinvestor
17 Oct 2018
Pre Close Update My estimates are EPS 66p, DPS 33p, giving a P/E at last night’s price of about 4.9. Dirt cheap. Trading at fractionally above NTA. A target for a buyer?
Greyinvestor
17 Oct 2018
Pre Close Update Effectively a profit warning out of CRST today, with it’s pre close update. But not really, because the update is actually slightly above current analyst expectations So more a warning that CRST is struggling to hold profits at a stable level, whereas competitors are doing much better. This has been a very poor purchase by me, well down on my purchase price. CRST is stuck at a higher price point in a depressed South East of England. Brexit is hitting hard, as is Stamp Duty. The stuff that is shifting is the cheaper, northern stuff. CRST needs to sharpen its appeal and pricing. The FD is going. The divi is being held at 33p this year and hopefully next. There is only one way to describe this stock; dirt cheap. It’s risky but I’m going to hold on. For me the great imponderables are Brexit (why are we doing it, madness?) and interest rates. A run on sterling and an inability to sell gilts could bring the house down. A risky Hold for me.
Greyinvestor
08 Aug 2018
Results out today Topped up on these today. I rarely add to a losing position, and my holding is well down in value, but I believe that the recent share price drops are extreme…
old_punter
22 May 2018
Decent value I paid c480p a month or two ago but luckily bought twice as many c425p early on Monday and am pleased to see some recovery now to 447p, at which level they still look undervalued.In this market, any disappointing news gets a severe price response and this was no exception so its now an opportunity to get a 7% yield in a well run company with maybe boring or moderately poor short term prospects. Even so, I reckon its by no means certain the dividend will be cut but probably in the price if that happens.But WDIK.
gamesinvestor
21 May 2018
Re: PI's buying while Directors sell.. 16-May-18 Taylor Wimpey TW. Beeston,Kevin S 550,000 @ 2.01p £1,106,826.64Games
EssentialInvestor
18 May 2018
Re: PI's buying while Directors sell.. No post here makes the slightest difference to a £1 billion market cap company.I referenced the director selling, are you disputing that?.Also referenced the last chunky sale in April.all means keep adding.On reflection my own view is now a Strong Sell.
marktime1231
17 May 2018
Re: PI's buying while Directors sell.. Value yes, trap is what is you are using.Please do talk this down to bargain basement when I will be adding to my long term income portfolio.
EssentialInvestor
17 May 2018
Re: PI's buying while Directors sell.. Stephen's latest disposal was on 18 April.Have a look at some of the sales over the last year.Woody sees value though, so that's all good, irony intended.
EssentialInvestor
17 May 2018
PI's buying while Directors sell.. Oh, Woody buying as well.Value trap imv, late stage cycle with margin compression and stagnant HPI.Highlighted the BOD selling last year on another site.Yesterday was not a surprise.
Greyinvestor
16 May 2018
Calendar year Sorry, should have said that my figures relate to this calendar year and compare with the FTSE at about +1%.........
Greyinvestor
16 May 2018
FTSE future When you talk generalities about the FTSE, it sounds like brilliant value. But look at the specifics of each company and you see lots of overgeared businesses. However there are a good number of lowly geared, high yielding, albeit potentially cyclical companies. In my view we are seeing a repeat of the tech bubble; buyers are steering well clear of boring, lower growth, value businesses. Woodford was right last time and may well be right again.I think that companies like LLOY, AV, CRST, NRR are stonking good value. I’ve filled my boots and intend to enjoy the divis. Admittedly I am now 63 and therefore as keen on income as growth. I also hold CLIG.I’m getting my growth kick from a smaller number of RQIH and BPM.My performance to date is suffering from my value bias; I’m down 1% on my personal holdings (I spend the divis) and up 1% on my pension where I keep the divis and hold 40% of cash awaiting a rainy day. It remains to be seen if my strategy is sound, but my value bias at least has the virtue of appearing to be much better value than any bond, gilt or annuity.
malj1
16 May 2018
Re: The curse strikes again On yr last para.The FTSE is currently on a forward dy of 5.2% net of basic tax, which should compound at say 8% pa (the retained earnings return on equity) & reasonable inflation protection. I suspect this is due to the brexit fear. This compares v favourably, to put it mildly, with medium term gilts yielding 1.4% gross which can only compound at ca 1% pa & no inflation protection. Either the economy implodes or post a reasonable brexit the FTSE rises somewhere +30%/+50%. This would return the dy to a reasonable average & the index to a historic level in line with previous ratios to the Dow/S&P. We shall see.
FRTEB
16 May 2018
Re: The curse strikes again CRST is also my pick of the housebuilders. The update is sound but tinged with realistic caution, given where we might be in the housing market cycle. I do think there has been an overreaction to the results here and the sp is being unjustly punished but CRST seems cheap to me and is a solid business offering a stonking yield. I hold a fair chunk of CRST and I'm sat on a sizeable paper(electronic) profit and will continue to hold. I have scope for one more (final) tranche but will see how things pan out with the market over the coming months... Speaking generally (not specifically about CRST) my gut feeling is that we're being primed for bigger falls across the markets - there have been too many OTT reactions to OKish results just lately. The next few months might present some wonderful buying opportunities (or might not!)
marktime1231
16 May 2018
The curse strikes again Ridiculous over-reaction to an update which is fundamentally positive but rightly cautions about a flat market and price pressure, so H1s will be at the bottom end of forecast, dividend not in danger. That is not a profit warning is it! A 12% slump because ... a blight on all shares beginning with C.Added a good chunk just now at 440p, there is no sensible reason on earth why a growing profitable business with fair outlook should be trading on p/e < 8. CRST remains my pick of all the builders, the bad news (and some) already priced.
