shugg1e
17 Apr 2018
Re: Tiny volumes = large moves somethings brewing here insiders are getting inI have a feeling this is about to pop big time
Girdz
17 Apr 2018
Re: Tiny volumes = large moves 60000 reported after the bell DDD. Got to buys at 54p and 55pSlowly slowly catchy monkey
Dictum de dicto
17 Apr 2018
Tiny volumes = large moves I can't believe how small the volumes are relative to the price moves in this stock. It looks like there is very little selling going on, and even the mid 50s and upwards doesn't look like it's going to entice many more.The permits coming through will make life very interesting for the market makers, who may well struggle finding the right price. For me, the permits represent the start of open-season in the M&A space. Sure, it's not production, but they represent a completely different valuation criteria; a massive de-risking event. We know that there have been more than a handful of mid-caps, and possibly majors, already kicking the tyres on Condor so I can't see it taking long before something more solid takes place. The Condor's of the gold world a few and far between, and it's a binary situation; one company's gain will be every other player's loss. Meanwhile, the window on getting those permits is already open. They could be granted as early as this week, or maybe not until June. I err on the sooner rather than later side but I've no real insight into the speed of administration in Central America. From what I can see most of the stakeholders are now on-side so it can only really be admin that is holding things up; unless anyone knows better. The 'market', what there is of it, seems to be sniffing out the opportunity but judging by the volumes there is still a lot of circumspection around. The non-believers still outnumber the believers. But that will change.Counting down the days.
simms45
13 Apr 2018
Re: Permits? Lets hope those permits are forthcoming and happy to go along with your forecast of this month but given the scale of the documentation they need to wade through i would be forgiving if they signed them off before July. I say July as otherwise nothing will happen until after September as everyone takes a long break. I have not direct knowledge of the local community and just a personal view about what they were trying to leverage (normally compensation) but if many become employees on good wages and give up the compensation route then you might be correct but i dont have any specific information but i do positively note there is no re-run of the anti capitalist petitions at the moment so that does suggest fatigue on some sorts. Hopefully they will not be blockading the pits in the future. If you have any information that Mark has been going door to door getting each of the objectors on side that would be nice to know or otherwise i will probably bump into him on the backstreets of Mayfair.
Dictum de dicto
13 Apr 2018
Re: Permits? I'm more optimistic than you on a couple of points.Firstly, I get the impression that the local community are far more enthisiastic about the situation than you might be thinking. The prospect of several hundred (relatively) well paid jobs is far more alluring than the inconvenience of having artificial landscaping imposed on them. My understanding is that the revised proposals sorted out most of the concerns that they had.Secondly, my thinking is that (partly because of the above) the permits could be granted as early as this month (April). Admin is slow in central America but it looks like all parties are now supporting the move, which suggests that it is literally the speed of bureaucracy which is holding things up. Agreed on the illiquidity of the share, which is why I think we will see a fairly robust and positive reaction when the permits do land. Anyone who doesn't buy now will have a far more challenging time in a few weeks time, at least in buying at today's levels. The FD may well have been using his ISA allowance but he's also no doubt thinking that if he doesn't go now he will be 1) precluded from buying due to inside trading regs (closed period) and 2) not much chance of buying in the 40s.Fingers crossed on a decent revaluation when they finally comes through.
simms45
13 Apr 2018
Re: Permits? I think the level of free float for this stock is a major factor as in reality only £50k-£80k of stock is being traded daily in the market but we are seeing large price changes with a bid spread of around 7% so very large. Therefore even relatively small buys can move the share up and down and in light of new news little to do with fundamentals.it is encouraging that a further director has bought a small amount if the open market to lend some confidence but it was a small purchase. obviously insiders have small windows to make investments and probably this was his ISA allowance being used up at the start of the financial year.With the threat of ongoing issues in the Middle East and wider the POG has seen a general uptrend that is likely to continue as Russia are the 2nd largest gold miners in the world. if Mark was right we should hear something before July and the AGM is conveniently on the 26th June so i am sure he would like nothing better than to come to the AGM and start talking about putting shovels in the ground rather than explaining his disastrous 3 years of wasted time trying to ride rough shod over local residents thinking the Nicaraguan government would sweep them aside. This to me is very troubling they even thought that was possible and to not have quickly consulted and found a way forward.I still think the local community will be doubling down on efforts to stop Condor as they now face no compensation and still a big pit on their doorstep with just a 5m high wall and most of them connected to artisan miners means their livelihoods might be affected. Appreciate that many might well go and work for Condor so lets hope Mark is on the ground smoothing over the issues quickly and not jetting around the world doing his little presentations. i wonder how many weeks he actually spends in La India as i am not sure the management team are on the front line as much as they should be as this should have been done and dusted years ago.
Dictum de dicto
13 Apr 2018
Permits? Is the market finally sniffing out the fact that the permits are getting very close?You can never tell but there isn't much else to move it at the moment. The FD buying a few, announced yesterday, may well have helped.
Dictum de dicto
07 Apr 2018
Re: MC Vid - meetings I picked up on a comment re: two meetings last week:1) Final site inspections by three ministeries. 2) British ambassador met Minister of Mines.This sounds to me like the permits are very close indeed, maybe only a week or two.
simms45
06 Apr 2018
Re: MC Vid i have been doing some more research and i agree that permits do look increasingly likely as a number of other foreign miners have got the permits in the end. There was a nice line iin one of the videos where Mark Child mentioned meeting the presidents son and that is often a good sign someone is listening However like most of these goldmines it is the guy selling the pickaxes who makes the fortune and i wonder how much of the cash shareholders have spent over the years on digging holes has been making others rich and being suspicion would ask who owns these companies? The £2.5m raised will keep the wheels moving and hopefully be enough to get us over the line for permits and then hopefully you might hope the lending wandon will pull up with $120m but there will be strings attached. I think the recent private placement at 43.5p will be a bit of a hold-up for sometime to come although i do not know how many of these shares are held by long-term holders. I have noted the price of 43.5p is pretty much sticky at the moment. That could mean there is a slosh fund of stock floating around going for the placement price. Hopefully long suffering shareholders might see some real action this year.
Temujiin
06 Apr 2018
MC Vid For those who haven't seen it, the latest MC Vid from recent Master Investor Show 2018, still (as always) sound confident of permits shortlyTaken from LSE so credits to Goneawol [link]
simms45
05 Apr 2018
Re: looks interesting but I agree that in some ways Mark Child is aligned although he has picked up a very nice steady salary over the last 12 years, sits on a lot of options and shares and impressive that since it was formed he has not actually got his hands dirty and put a shovel in the ground, so to speak. We can hope the Nicaraguan government do not have other ideas about the structure of the mine as you sense in these countries that ministers who hold the keys might well fancy the goldmine for another interested party and have quite a lot of say. While it looks possible the government might provide the permit it is far from a certainty given the background of opposition from locals who might be now just a annoyed as they probably all thought they were going to get a payoff and now they will not, but still be within earshot of the mine but with a 5m wall in the way. something tells me the locals are not exactly now going to roll out the carpet after all this time. My other question is that if Condor does get the permit how long do we need to wait before we start to see some revenue hitting the coffers and the costs to get to that point? my understanding is that even with permit in hand are we talking 6/12/18 /24/36 months before operation and what money shareholders will need to input? There is just something nagging me that why has so much time elapsed and not a single permit been forthcoming. my only real assumption is that the management are relatively incompetent or not really rushing to get any mine open.its important to be suspicious as i have been on the receiving end of listed companies that end up in trouble, only for the assets to be sold to someone else to enjoy the fruits and todate i think shareholders have sunk £40m in this mine over the last 12 years and today the company is worth £27m?
Dictum de dicto
28 Mar 2018
Re: looks interesting but I know all about juniors burning through cash but in defence of Condor, MC is also a major shareholder and is more aligned with shareholder interests than most other directors. It's also reassuring to see that the £2.5m placing cash was raised through existing shareholders and did not require new money. The timing is interesting as well. my reckoning is pretty much just before the permits are expected to land - some time between now and the end of Mayearly June. Fingers crossed on a game changing announcement.
botmzup
26 Mar 2018
Re: looks interesting but Once the permits are granted the game changes, and with the grades of Au in results there will be plenty of big investors wanting in on a JV....or taking over!Solg proved a big find and the big boys came in with money to burn taking the price from low pennies to 46p in 7 months!!Profit takers have been very shrewd taking their booty off the table since, but it still shows how things can change dramatically once certain technical formalities are out of the way.And the permit delay issue `will` be out of the way...a case of when now, not if!!
simms45
26 Mar 2018
looks interesting but why has the management team spent the last 3 years burning through investor cash and putting forward a plan that involved resettlement that was clearly a problem from the start. The management appear quite inept to have spent so many years getting to this point anddoes make you wonder what exactly is going on? Assuming they are granted the permit i was reading somewhere in the region of $120m in capital investment is needed. did i read this correctly as this seems very high?The market cap is £28m is riding on a lot of hope that permits will be granted and they get processing.Does anyone know how quickly processing could start as they clearly will need to raise a lot more money to take this to fruition and the sooner they actually see some cash flow the better.
Dictum de dicto
25 Mar 2018
Re: Permit countdown - weeks not months True, we are in a 'show not tell' world these days but I do sense the lack of permits has been holding back the share price. My guess is that a potential acquirer will not truly take Condor seriously until those permits are issued. They are a pretty significant de-risking event.Good to see you still around DJ.
