MarcAdmin
08 Oct 2019
New format problems
Dictum_de_dicto
05 Aug 2018
Impact of permits Some reminders from the video: Current MV in the circa $30m zone. NPV of project is $195m. AISC circa $700 and spot currently circa $1215. Value gold in the ground $12. The numbers speak for themselves as far as the potential is concerned. ddd
Dictum_de_dicto
05 Aug 2018
Impact of permits For anyone who missed his July 18th interview explaining the background to the permit process. [link] ddd
Dictum_de_dicto
05 Aug 2018
Impact of permits I posted a lot of this on LSE so might as well copy it here. It’s some weeks since Condor provided the required info and with Nicaraguan politics now more likely to accelerate progress in creating new jobs than delaying, I don’t think the permits are too far away. It’s probably time to look a bit further ahead. We are either going to get the mine up and running or will be bought while doing so. Given the nature of the type of mining proposed we could actually be in production in 2020, assuming the permits are very close. There will still be some fund raising and preparation work but these are operational certainties that will be dealt with as needed. The permits are the game changer as far as major risk is concerned. What most people are no doubt thinking is whether Condor will get bought during 2018 or 2019, before it gets anywhere near producing an ounce of gold. What we do know is that Condor has been visited on multiple occasions over the past few years so that interest could soon be revived with a bit of news. B2B is certainly a possibility but it’s not the only player out there. My own guess is that we will see two or three interested parties emerge during the course of 2018. With Condor’s resource being one of the best on the planet it would not surprise me to see even a major come in quickly and make a killer offer. Anything could happen once those mega important permits are in place. It’s impossible to guess at a market price but what is clear is that at 40p Condor is anywhere between a third and a quarter of what it could be if a suitor appears. We will no doubt see some profit taking before a slow but inexorable rise to a realistic valuation starts. I’ve seen it many times before and have no reason to doubt that Condor will be any different. Fingers crossed that the permits will come sooner than later and kick-start the Condor heatwave. ddd
simms45
06 Jul 2018
Permiting one step forward today MC said he finally got the extra questions he needed to answer into the ministry and a good press release. Encouragingly it appears he was meeting with them in the last few weeks so the ministries are functioning reasonably normally. Apparently the delay was actually engineers accessing La India because of vigilante roadblocks and not anything else that a heard from the lse newsboard. June permits? Market Discussions Not looking good for June. I guess you can never tell with South America. I’m assuming the answers to the questions went in on May 31st so the ball is back in the Nicaraguan court. I don’t really see a central government downside to the permits being issued so I guess it’s an ‘any day now’ situation. I would ask for news from the company but I suspect they are no wiser than we are at the moment. We just have to wait. Meanwhile the protest situation in Nicaragua itself has almost become ‘normali… I think the government want to continue that it is business as usual. Given the 1000 extra jobs and $120m investment the country are in more need than before to become more pro business which is one of the main opposition aims to open the market more to inward investment. Therefore the pressure from the opposition to some extent will push Ortega to take on a more pro business attitude, assuming that is he is still in power over the next few months, and jobs are one of the top priorities for his country.
Dictum_de_dicto
27 Jun 2018
June permits? Not looking good for June. I guess you can never tell with South America. I’m assuming the answers to the questions went in on May 31st so the ball is back in the Nicaraguan court. I don’t really see a central government downside to the permits being issued so I guess it’s an ‘any day now’ situation. I would ask for news from the company but I suspect they are no wiser than we are at the moment. We just have to wait. Meanwhile the protest situation in Nicaragua itself has almost become ‘normalised’. Not a good situation if you live there but the international press seems to have lost a lot of interest. I’ve not heard of the local political situation impairing gold production, unless someone knows better… Time to sit on my hands again. ddd
Dictum_de_dicto
27 Jun 2018
Gold price expectations Financial Sense is getting bullish on gold. I’ve not seen this for years; at least not since the 2010/2011 period. About 44 mins in: [link] ddd
Dictum_de_dicto
14 Jun 2018
Gold price expectations I’m reading and listening to some quite bullish stuff on gold at the moment. In a nutshell, despite the increase in the DXY gold has stood its ground. This bodes well for the next few months given that we are now in a seasonal weakness period. A bit of background on seasonality: [link] ddd
Dictum de dicto
31 May 2018
June permits? Wasn't May 31st the day the final set of questions were to be answered by Condor? If so, and assuming that the answers given are satisfactory, then we could still see the permits granted by the end of June. It is obviously impossible to make a fully accurate call on the subject given the extraordinarily long period of time that has elapsed already, and the current political distractions. Nonetheless, despite the political climate, if the agencies involved are still moving forward then a month or so looks long enough to schedule a meeting to review the answers, and actually issue the permits. mid-year still looks doable.Fingers crossed that we can at last see some progress on the matter.
shugg1e
30 May 2018
Re: New lows Im tempted again here risk on the gold price but any uptick ( which is overdue ) will see handsome rewards.
Dictum de dicto
18 May 2018
Re: Why so volatile? It doesn't make a lot of sense to me unless you put it down to fear over political factors in Nicaragua. The main fear is 'delay', although as we already know MC was called in for a few final (hopefully) questions AFTER the protests started. Thus as the moment it looks like they are irrelevant to the approvals process. Quite frankly, whoever ends up running the place will still need economic development. So, as long as MC answers the questions I can still see the permits being issued by the end of June. If they don't land by June 30th then I could see a few people start to lose faith. For the record I did think we would see something by the end of this month but it looks like my expectations at the time were far too early. Still a buy although it's starting to feel like an interminably long process. I bought into the Falklands Oil story (DES in 2003) so no one can accuse me of lacking patience, but there are limits. As one wag on the RKH board remarked recently. Words to the effect of 'I bought-in dreaming of it buying me a sports car but now my dreams are more of a portable mobility scooter..'We live in hope that we will actually make some money out of it before retirement.
elvor
18 May 2018
Why so volatile? Does anyone have an opinion why this is so volatile? Basically over the last year (and much longer) we have apparently been edging closer and closer to a decision on permits, which everyone "thinks" is a no brainer (just like OXS right?). So why does the price fluctuate so much? you should assume(or at least I do)that everyone here is here for the permit decision. So day to day issues, POG, local unrest.. in theory shouldn't affect the price so much.Clearly there's a floor in my logic as it is quite volatile.Thoughts?
Dictum de dicto
16 May 2018
Re: Results Update There are always risks in politics, but if you analyse the situation delaying a decision to issue the permits would be irrational. There seems to be multiple reasons for the protests but underneath all of them is economic development. They need projects like Condor to deliver the taxes that fuel their social security system. Those pensions that were reinstated a few weeks ago are not affordable without it. And it’s far bette to have people working than having enough free time to protest! There might be a bit of caution regarding giving locals another reason to protest but I reckon the government really wants this project to happen.
Temujiin
15 May 2018
Re: Results Update Credits to AndrewFfoulkes on LSE, From Mark to his email circulation list:A bit more detail......... despite the political unrest, I had a meeting 2 weeks ago with 2 Ministries to discuss the findings from their site inspection. We will submit the technical information by 31st May 2018. Assuming the technical information is okay and there are no further questions, the Project will be signed off as technically okay and goes to the Minister and President for approval. A date for a Public Consultation should be set and permits granted a couple of weeks later.The risk is that the political situation delays the permitting process. A Dialogue table for mediation and finding a way forward is set for tomorrow. I don£t have a crystal ball, the situation is very tense. Talks could breakdown or go smoothly and a settlement reached.The geologists are excited about the high grade rock chips and new discoveries. We continue to believe the current 2.4M oz gold resource can be doubled and La India Project hosts a 5M oz Gold District."Detailed geological mapping and vein characterisation continued along several veins, which included the collection of over 150 rock chip samples. On the America Vein Set, 24 rock chip samples returned gold values greater than 5.0g/t including
Dictum de dicto
15 May 2018
Re: Results Update I had become aware of this, which was the reason for the 'business as usual' post. Maybe it was too cryptic.The sense I had is that the protests are irrelevant to the company progressing. If anything the local agencies may even want to accelerate permit approval, possibly to present a new mine and 700+ jobs as a PR coup in an economy that desperately needs positive economic development news. Approval by mid-year is still on the cards from what I can see, and maybe even before that. There may be a few regrets from former holders in the next couple of months. I for one will be sticking with it.
