II Editor
23 Aug 2016
NEW ARTICLE: The Oil Man: Cairn Energy/Far "Briefly this morning, I notice that things are moving on apace in Senegal with an announcement by PNK:FARYF:Far. It has increased its contingent resource number by 14% to 641 million barrels and says that the field "has the credentials to support ..."[link]
JRz
19 Aug 2016
Re: RNS 210p is broken. Next target is 230p.
Sambram
17 Aug 2016
Re: RNS £2 plus today FirstEnergy Capital: "Cairn has increased its resources estimates at SNE in Senegal from 200-690 mmbbl to 274-906 mmbbl with a 2C Contingent case of 473 mmbbl which is 28 mmbbl above our estimates. Cairn’s 2C Contingent estimates remain well below its partners Far and Woodside (circa 560 mmbbl) and reflect different views on recovery factor. The next steps in Senegal consist of addressing the recovery factor uncertainty with further appraisal activities. Costs continue going down at Kraken and Catcher but also in Senegal where Cairn has reduced expected development capex by 25%...We continue to see Cairn’s shares as not particularly cheap, except if one assumes a swift resolution of the Indian litigation; which we do not want to bet upon."Taken from Research Tree
JRz
17 Aug 2016
Re: RNS £2 plus today Ticking up slowly - currently trying to break 210p. May reach 230p as CNE is tracking Tullow historically (IMHO).
Stoatstail
17 Aug 2016
Re: estimates upgrade Jay, you are correct.Remember the Rajasthan build up well.Cairn's mantra under Bill G was always 'under promise, over deliver'.A good Scottish trait that I like. Always leaves some better news to follow.Stoatstail
jaymac3
16 Aug 2016
Re: estimates upgrade Thanks for the comments Sambram but please do remember that Cairn has always been cautious about forward estimates of reserves. Remember Rajasthan?I am only giving it a "weak buy" rec because of the time scale to production as I do believe it will be a Strong Buy before this time next year.Cheers, Jaymac3
Sambram
16 Aug 2016
estimates upgrade Broker Updates on Research Tree:AlphaValue:"Senegal 2C contingent oil resources have been increased to 473mbbl (vs. 385mbbl previously). The third phase of the drilling programme should start in Q4 16-Q1 17 (further evaluation of SNE), benefiting from low rig rates. At the same time, conceptual development is underway. North Sea: remaining development capex at $315m (H2 16 to be FCF positive by end-2017), o/w Kraken $215m, Catcher $100m, and $110m in H2 16, $205m in 2017. Kraken should come onstream in April 2017 (plateau at 50kboe/d, net c. 15kboe/d, $100m cash flow at $44/bbl – forward curve); Catcher in H2 17 (ramp-up in 2018)."FirstEnergy Capital:"Market reaction: positive to our numbers on lower capex and higher resources. However some investors might be disappointed that Cairn's latest resources estimate at SNE remains much lower than Far and Woodside's":
II Editor
16 Aug 2016
NEW ARTICLE: The Oil Man: Cairn Energy "Cairn EnergyI will write more tomorrow, but worth saying a few words this morning, albeit from a platform at Victoria station!LSE:CNE:Cairn has increased Senegal numbers but remains in the ultra conservative camp and is still lower than both ..."[link]
Nige the snake
16 Aug 2016
RNS £2 plus today Simon Thomson, Chief Executive, Cairn Energy PLC said: "Successful appraisal of the world-class SNE discovery in Senegal has significantly increased 2C oil resources to 473 million barrels with associated 2C oil in place in excess of 2.7 billion barrels. Drilling is scheduled to re-commence in Senegal shortly, benefiting from lower costs across the sector. The programme contains options for multiple wells and in addition to ongoing appraisal of the SNE field, the Joint Venture continues to assess optimal locations for further exploration drilling on the acreage. Cairn's exploration and appraisal focus in Senegal is balanced with development assets in the UK, with first oil targeted from both Kraken and Catcher during 2017 and in the meantime Cairn remains fully-funded in respect of all of its capital commitments."
nk1999
06 Aug 2016
UBS view "Cairn Energy got a boost on Friday as UBS upgraded the stock to 'buy' from 'neutral' following recent underperformance, with an unchanged price target of 220p.The bank said several potential sources are emerging in Cairn. Firstly, it said the resumption of drilling in Senegal later this year sees multi-hundred million barrels of upside tested in a frontier, but proven basin.Secondly, UBS argued that investors get paid to wait for the oil price recovery."Cairn's North Sea projects don't ramp-up until 2H17E and so weak spot prices impact sentiment but not value. Once on-stream Catcher and Kraken give it around 25kboe/d of production which, given large tax loss pools, is notably cash generative."Thirdly, UBS said that while visibility on recovery of its 10% Cairn India stake is low ahead of arbitration next year, so are market expectations.The bank pointed out that Cairn's share price has sold off in reaction to two partner transactions: Woodside's acquisition of Conoco's 35% stake in the SNE discovery and the mooted Delek/EnQuest Kraken deal."
jaymac3
05 Aug 2016
Re: Reason for bounce? Don't know for sure but I do hope the Indian Government is being dragged to the negotiation table?
Doodlebugger
05 Aug 2016
Reason for bounce? Any reason for the enthusiastic bounce this morning, or is it just recovering lost ground?
nk1999
28 Jul 2016
RBC Cap From ADVFN:"Cairn Energy shares rose on Thursday as RBC Capital Markets raised its rating on the stock to 'outperform' from 'sector perform' and reiterated a target of 260p."We view the recent share price weakness as an opportunity to take a position in Cairn ahead of the first half results, 16 August, RBC said."We anticipate management will increase the resource number for the SNE discovery (in Senegal) and, more importantly, provide revised (lower) cost guidance for development of the field (last provided based on 2014 costs)."The broker highlighted news that Woodside Petroleum has agreed to pay $430m for ConocoPhillips' 35% stake in a Senegal offshore oil joint venture, containing the SNE oil discovery. Cairn Energy holds a 40% working interest as operator in the joint venture." In our view, although an unflattering read-through today, medium term, the deal provides another experienced offshore developer while removing the overhang/uncertainty associated with ConocoPhillips' well-known commitment to exit deepwater," said RBC.The analyst added: "The combination of a strong balance sheet, production base (from H2/17), and stated strategy to return value created by the drill bit to shareholders is increasingly making Cairn the 'go to' UK Main List exploration and production stock."
nk1999
06 Jun 2016
RBC Cap "RBC Capital Markets downgraded Cairn Energy to 'sector perform' from 'outperform' and cut the price target to 250p from 260p until 2017 drilling plans are confirmed.The Canadian bank said drilling success at the SNE field offshore Senegal has provided a welcome exception to recent drilling disappointments across the sector.RBC said the results demonstrated unequivocally that SNE has the potential to be a major oil field with reservoirs capable of delivering commercial flow rates.However, with limited news flow until drilling restarts in 2017, there is the potential for the stock to drift compared to leveraged peers, particularly in an improving oil price environment.In the medium term, RBC reckons Cairn remains well placed to become the "go to" UK main list E&P stock given a strong balance sheet, production base and stated strategy to return value created by the drill bit to shareholders."However, establishing this, more fully formed, business will require time and production start-up from the Catcher (Cairn 20%, Premier Oil operated) and Kraken (Cairn 29.5%, EnQuest operated) fields H2/17," it said.RBC Capital Markets downgraded Cairn Energy to 'sector perform' from 'outperform' and cut the price target to 250p from 260p until 2017 drilling plans are confirmed.The Canadian bank said drilling success at the SNE field offshore Senegal has provided a welcome exception to recent drilling disappointments across the sector.RBC said the results demonstrated unequivocally that SNE has the potential to be a major oil field with reservoirs capable of delivering commercial flow rates.However, with limited news flow until drilling restarts in 2017, there is the potential for the stock to drift compared to leveraged peers, particularly in an improving oil price environment.In the medium term, RBC reckons Cairn remains well placed to become the "go to" UK main list E&P stock given a strong balance sheet, production base and stated strategy to return value created by the drill bit to shareholders."However, establishing this, more fully formed, business will require time and production start-up from the Catcher (Cairn 20%, Premier Oil operated) and Kraken (Cairn 29.5%, EnQuest operated) fields H2/17," it said."From ADVFN.
Doodlebugger
19 May 2016
More oil, price drops A fantastic appraisal well on a world class field, and the price drops slightly. Wondering what the point is in oil shares. Seems the only way they will go up is due to a takeover bid
