marktime1231
24 Jul 2017
In line decline, some positives The trouble with a business operating on such a narrow margin is that an expected 1-2% decline in revenues has a potentially much more severe effect on margins. But the news is no worse than that, there is a little good news along with the (expected) decline in some sectors.The cash from the sale of the education division, the results from fledgling development areas and the hint of a little bit of cost reduction to reveal at the prelim final results in mid Oct. Not enough to offset strucural decline ... might we see £25-30M earnings down from £42M last year?Lots of free cash flow still so a dividend of 10p looks secure. I maintain this is good value up to 150p, the sp should begin to pick up towards that as we approach the dividend announcement.
marktime1231
21 Jul 2017
Re: Interesting article A terrific analysis and worth another read tomorrow with fresh eyes, thank you.The conclusion is that if margins were stronger and there was a glimmer of growth potential then this would be a clear bargain, but the author who is a Hold is worried about longer term risks and what might happen to dividends.Any vaguely positive hints in the trading update next Monday 24th July might give momentum to a bounce in the sp already underway.I wonder if progressive debt reduction will help margins, there is spare free cash flow after covering an already healthy dividend to cut into about £140M of borrowings - has the recent sp trough been because of a fear of interest rate rises creating a debt burden, and those fears have now eased?Shore Capital are the latest broker to go "Buy" at close of play this evening, and there were two really big late trades to suggest someone has already made their mid up which way this will turn out. If I was not already well in I would be thinking of this as a Strong Buy for its short term recovery prospect.
Blanketstacker
20 Jul 2017
Interesting article [link]
Bill1703
13 Jul 2017
Re: Third time hopeful "I don't have any view about Connect, though its biznay don't look terribly exciting to LKH..."No, LKH, not in the least... and that's just how I like my shares, for the most part!The corporate graveyard is full of once-exciting stocks... alongside the one full of the paupers who chose to "invest" in them...
LK Hyman
13 Jul 2017
Re: Third time hopeful Bill,"Glass half full, or half empty? Still the former for me..."That's what a lot of people said about Carrion!I don't have any view about Connect, though its biznay don't look terribly exciting toLKH on the flybridge there's a minute of my life I won't get back
Bill1703
13 Jul 2017
Re: Third time hopeful "I have added a third (and it will be a final) slice to my holding in CNCT this morning at 95p... There are no concrete reasons why this stock plunged early today. A single small trade registered at a price 6% below where it was trading quietly has caused panic reactions."Yes, the quick recovery suggests the drop to ~90p might prove to have been the "great opportunity"... only time will tell whether I will kick myself for having missed it. At that SP, forget a divi yield well above 10% - the FCF yield was up at 22%/18% (last 2 yrs)... you simply don't see those kind of figures very often, and indeed we didn't here - for long!Still watching very carefully... even back around 100p must be surely still be the wrong price, either it's worth a lot more - or the business is about to take a much deeper bath than current projections anticipate. Glass half full, or half empty? Still the former for me...
marktime1231
13 Jul 2017
Third time hopeful I have added a third (and it will be a final) slice to my holding in CNCT this morning at 95p.At p/e < 5 and yield > 10% it would have been rude not to.It was either that or be suckered into the dead cat bounce at CLLN up 10%.There are no concrete reasons why this stock plunged early today. A single small trade registered at a price 6% below where it was trading quietly has caused panic reactions. Since then things seem to be returning to a wary but more normal trading pattern. Time for a broker statement, these situations are what they are paid to deal with.Maybe a "market maker" was playing a game on everyone who had a stop loss instruction and has now hoovered up some bargains. There ought to be a sniffy investigation by the market regulator if we can't find any mention of shorting activity or any gossip to make sense of this, only the investor blogs like this one are trying to rationalise it.
Oxtrader
13 Jul 2017
Re: Hmm or have I got it wrong? I am scrambling to news bites as after-all; there's very little to go on at the moment. Thing is, Connect Group raised an Rights Issue to facilitate the purchase of the Tuffnells Logistics business. If the market turns sour on the Logistics industry, it makes it look like a bad bet gone wrong.Dart Group has a small sector in Logistics, which reported their final results this morning. They are down 12% as a result. I've increased my CNCT holding by 15% this morning on the attractive price at 91p.
forwardloop
13 Jul 2017
Re: Hmm or have I got it wrong? Don't know if CNCT is a member of the transport group or not, but if fits as it is such a mixed business.And , yes, the paper industry is in structural decline - you could have quoted Johnson Press as well as they move to new on line business models. So CNCTs distribution business is caught up in that. But this is not new so something else must be driving the price down? Though if you look at the chart, history suggests it is not the first time . I wonder what the reasons were then?
Oxtrader
12 Jul 2017
Re: Hmm or have I got it wrong? My take on things.. I am too a Connect Group holder mind. The current share price has dropped since its Dividend Pay date on the 7th of July, which is perfectly natural. It's at its low end of the dividend cycle. However I think its suppressed further due to wider issues, not necessarily Connect Group’s fault.The new sector that Connect Group has invested in, the Tufnell’s Parcel Express. The Transport industry has suffered 3 month lows (below): [link] believe the larger attributing factor is the Newspaper industry. Whilst Connect Group have always worked around a managed decline. However a Publishing company, Trinity Group (Who also distribute alike Connect Group) posted a pretty distasteful Trading update on the 30th of June:[link] revenue is expected to fall by 10%, with print declining by 12%”.Trinity, you make comparisons to Connect - have also fallen pretty heavily the past month. An second peer would be Daily Mail on a Month comparison - which too posted a 20% drop in profits recently:[link] that respect, it’s pretty tough time for Connect Group to have a strong share price; especially after the dividend pay-date.I might double up soon enough. Will wait a little longer however.
forwardloop
12 Jul 2017
Penny share Back to being a penny share again. I wonder what ticks? Someone must know.My theoretical capital losses now exceed years of divi gains....
Eagerbeaver66
11 Jul 2017
Re: CEO buys 108k shares in SIPP Presumably its still a mildly encouraging sign?- One might imagine that he is chosing to take a smaller capital gains tax hit while the price is low, in the hope that they will recover without being hit by CGT in the SIPP.
Hydrogen Economy
11 Jul 2017
Re: CEO buys 108k shares in SIPP ForwardLoopWell corrected, sorry missed that there were 2 entries on the RNS.H2
forwardloop
10 Jul 2017
Re: CEO buys 108k shares in SIPP Er Hardly?He sold them first then bought the exact equivalent within the protection of his SIPPNet change = 0
Guitarsolo
10 Jul 2017
Re: Hmm or have I got it wrong? OK, now I am starting to get a bit ****** off! Having said to myself that I am exposed enough, I convinced myself to average down a little further with another tranche at 107p, and then it drops another 5%. I can't see this is significantly shorted......is it really that unloved?Oh well, I am here for the divis more than anything else. Now, anything that threatened that would probably really **** ** ***.......Guitarsolo
