Eagerbeaver66
22 Jan 2018
Re: Trading Update Does seem very sentiment driven, with a few % changes multiplied 10-fold in the share price changes herePass my parcel seems up between 200% and 700% ( depending on which measure you use!) but obviously still has a long way to go to balance the gradual decline in newsprint.
casabanker
22 Jan 2018
Re: Trading Update Well this looks like profit warning number one. It's disappointing and frankly unexpected.Casa.
Hydrogen Economy
22 Jan 2018
Trading Update Well the trading update has certainly killed any optimism here. "While overall revenue performance has been in line with our expectations, a combination of delays to contracts in PMP, weaker margins and market uncertainty in Mixed Freight, and slower than anticipated realisation of cost reductions from the Group's integration strategy in order to preserve current service levels, mean that we now expect full year adjusted profit before tax for the continuing operations to be in the range of £42m to £45m, with current dividend expectations underpinned by a continued good cash performance"Digital Look forecast pretax 2018 is 49.05m so a significant downgrade."Despite these positive indicators, forecasted margins and costs have been adversely impacted because the primary driver of growth has been a rapid increase in lower margin customer returns through parcel shops, with further acceleration over the Christmas peak. Ongoing delays to the implementation of new contracts and the roll out of new B2B services means that the margin mix is unlikely to improve in the near term" The future of CNCT depends heavily on PMP to offset news decline, so this is very worryingmmm..H2TRADING UPDATE Connect Group PLC is today issuing its Trading Update covering the 19 week period to 13 January 2018. Overview Total Group revenue for continuing operations of £564.5m (FY2017: £584.9m) has decreased by 3.5% year to date, with the anticipated decline of newspaper and magazine sales more than offsetting revenue growth in Mixed Freight and Pass My Parcel (PMP). While overall revenue performance has been in line with our expectations, a combination of delays to contracts in PMP, weaker margins and market uncertainty in Mixed Freight, and slower than anticipated realisation of cost reductions from the Group's integration strategy in order to preserve current service levels, mean that we now expect full year adjusted profit before tax for the continuing operations to be in the range of £42m to £45m, with current dividend expectations underpinned by a continued good cash performance. Early Distribution Total revenue in News Distribution and Media (comprising Smiths News, PMP and DMD) was £500.4m, a decrease of 4.1% (FY2017: £521.7m), in line with our expectations. Newspapers and Magazines The overall sales decline of newspapers and magazines remains within our medium term forecasts, with newspapers continuing to perform more strongly than magazines. We do expect stronger magazine and sticker sales as we approach the FIFA World Cup in June 2018, enhancing margin in the second half of the year. The overall profit and cash from newspaper and magazine sales is performing in line with our expectations. Pass My Parcel Volumes in Pass My Parcel of 1.3 million units have grown 347% year to date, and we start the new calendar year with a run rate up 740% on January 2017. Overall, volume growth is in line with our plans and we are pleased with this aspect of progress, which demonstrates an increasing consumer awareness of PMP, and the range and availability of its services. Year to date revenue of £2.5m is up 222%, representing strong growth. Despite these positive indicators, forecasted margins and costs have been adversely impacted because the primary driver of growth has been a rapid increase in lower margin customer returns through parcel shops, with further acceleration over the Christmas peak. Ongoing delays to the implementation of new contracts and the roll out of new B2B services means that the margin mix is unlikely to improve in the near term. As a consequence, we do not now expect full year losses from PMP to reduce from those incurred in FY2017. Media DMD media distribution to airlines and travel points continues to perform in line with our expectations. Mixed Freight External revenue of £63.9m (
marktime1231
10 Jan 2018
Re: CNCT SP Except that we go ex-div by 6.7p tomorrow so watch the sp slump. The recent rally has little to do with data about the the business or the economy and is all about the dividend.A trading update c. 23 Jan will end the need to speculate whether it was wise to hold today. I was hoping for a chance to trim but now I am holding my breath.In theory at a p/e of just 6 the shares are oversold, so long as the business is relatively stable or merely drifting rather than troughing. We would have heard by now if there was any really bad news to come ... wouldn't we?Not brave enough to add any more to my holdings but still I am hopeful of 130p, even if we have to wait for the hard financials and interim dividend decision in late April or early May.
Hydrogen Economy
10 Jan 2018
CNCT SP A good decisive move in the SP over the last few days, continuing the rise which started at the results in October and after a spell of consolidation is showing signs of moving firmly on up, (inevitable after Bill's inclusion in his top 10). There is a golden cross on way for those who are less impressed by the fundamentals showing clear undervaluation. However you look at it, CNCT is a solid buy and for those who bought enough when it was under 100p a profitable hold. DYORGLAH2
Bill1703
01 Jan 2018
My 2018 Top Ten portfolio As foreshadowed on other relevant boards... 2018 trading from tomorrow, so time to repeat last year's "virtual portfolio" challenge. Same rules, as per the papers - equal weighted, valid for the whole year with no switching, full owning-up at year end! AACapitaConnect GroupGlaxoSmithKlineImperial BrandsITV Lloyds BankingMarks & SpencerStagecoachWPPI retain a bias toward UK exposure and 'Value' (the two closely related, obviously), with an expectation that the UK domestic outlook will clarify satisfactorily (if not wonderfully) this year. But it's no slam-dunk... and so hedged with a decent slug of overseas earnings and a general focus on "stock specific" stories - with LLOY the only real pure play on 'UK PLC' and associated sentiment. Ultimately, well aware that it's near-impossible to avoid losers as well as winners, I have asked the question - can I see 15% over 2018 (plus divis)? Without necessarily much help from the wider market. Four stocks stay in from 2017, with CPI, IMB, ITV and SGC still to justify their original inclusion and getting another chance (SGC was a close call). Bonmarche has done its job as "speculative" midcap retail play; VOD still looks fine to me but harder to see sufficient upside in either valuation or financial reporting; CARD and WTB were tougher choices, both still good for the long term IMHO but I see their respective attractions now more finely balanced against likely persisting near-term headwinds.I will doubtless be elaborating on the case for each of the "new" inclusions in the course of the year. FWIW stocks actively considered but failing to make the cut (as well as CARD and WTB): Braemar and SBRY (from my 2017 Top 10), then Aviva, BT, Debenhams, Gattaca, Merlin, Morrisons, Trinity Mirror.FYI I own 7 of the 10 stocks, with all of CPI (still!), WPP, GSK under active consideration (probably in that order). I'd be surprised if I didn't buy into at least one in the course of 2018.
marktime1231
22 Dec 2017
Re: Book sale Yes an asset previously valued at about £15M sold for about £12M, but was it not booking a £2-3M loss?Cashmore says he can develop performance better by focussing on the core business (Tuffnells parcels and WH Smiths newspapers), and yet the proceeds of this sale will pay down debt rather than invest in growth or efficiencies. That might protect cash flow and the whopping 10% dividend in the near term but core business has been on a downward trend.I would be more excited by the prospect of consolidation, logistics is surely a business where big is best. DX are looking for a tie up having fallen out with Menzies. Ron Series the new chairman and Lloyd Dunn the new CEO of DX were behind the turnaround at Tuffnells before selling out to CNCT ... I don't mean to start a rumour but there has to be a reason why Gatemore the activist investor behind DX walked away from a compromise deal with Menzies, and it won't be because of prospects for organic growth at DX.
Bill1703
22 Dec 2017
Re: Book sale "The sale of the book division will bring in up to £11.6m but am I correct to think there will be a £3.4m loss on sale... Appreciate it if any longer term investors can comment... Dividend yield is very attactive and thinking of reducing holding in BVIC to buy in.."Yes, it looks like there will be a "reported" loss of at least that level - but neither here nor there for me, an entirely non-cash issue. I don't put a lot of store in "carrying values" - merely random numbers on a bit of paper, stocks (for the most part) are not valued on backward-looking balance sheets which may or may not be works of fiction. Ultimately, they are getting a chunk of cash for a structurally challenged business which is materially loss-making - getting rid of it now looks like another good decision from this management, which will be enhancing to both financial performance and shareholder "value" going forward.FWIW I am fairly underwhelmed by BVIC up at these levels (see my recent posts on that board), largely due to the current cash flow profile... meanwhile, CNCT still offers a 13% FCF yield (even on the lower FCF recently reported), and the near-9% divi yield is 1.5x covered by FCF - BVIC can only dream of that kind of comfort. So obviously, I wouldn't discourage your putative switch trade, deepsleeves! Until relatively recently, CNCT sustained a 140-160p range for most of the past five years and I see absolutely no reason why we can't or won't regain that... The consensus broker target is up at 150p - usual pinch of salt perhaps with such things, but as it happens, I agree with it. The catalyst could well be improving sentiment on UK-focused assets into 2018 as our medium-term outlook clarifies with the Brexit deal.
deepsleeves
21 Dec 2017
Book sale Just started looking at these a few weeks ago.The sale of the book division will bring in up to £11.6m but am I correct to think there will be a £3.4m loss on sale. I think the carrying value of the division was written down previously to £15mAppreciate it if any longer term investors can comment.Dividend yield is very attactive and thinking of reducing holding in BVIC to buy inDeep
oggie2
20 Dec 2017
Re: Time for a rally yes Marktime but it has not gone x div yet. Mind you i hope you are right?
marktime1231
20 Dec 2017
Time for a rally with a bumper divi just weeks away it is time CNCT picked up it heels and returned to fair value eg 125p please and thank you it is Christmas after alla rally on EAT (possible good dividend announcement coming up) and CARD (undervalued on cost fears) is also on the cards, SMT and MYI should surge on US tax incentive to repatriate and then put to use cash held overseas, PFC is going to recover and P500 will jump forward next year, but lets start with CNCT like we mean to go onThose are my 2017 stocking fillersMerry Xmas
Frankers70
08 Nov 2017
I'm in Like the possibility of a turnaround in fortunes here post October update and encouraged by the continued progressive dividend policy and management buying in October. I've grabbed 12,500 shares at a shade over 116p. GLA that are holding too...
casabanker
31 Oct 2017
Re: Hello/trade In between horrendous toothache since last Wednesday evening, I did manage to double up my holding yesterday. I had an extraction yesterday afternoon and feel much better today, looking forward to the dividend in February. Casa.
penhome
30 Oct 2017
Re: Hello/trade The Chronicle might have had something to do with it, but the rise started on Thursday, not Friday, opening at 92.75 and closing at 102.50. On Friday, it opened at 104.50 and closed 112.50.This seems to have more to do with Thursday's RNSPen
TX2
30 Oct 2017
Re: Hello/trade The sudden spike was almost certainly caused by an article in Investors Chronicle on Friday re Connect & a couple of other high dividend shares(Greene King & Marstons) commenting on their ability to continue to pay at present level.
