jackdawsson
27 Jun 2019
RNS - Additional Listing ValueSeeker8: Centrica trading at 86 p! The lowest trade price I’ve ever seen! Couldn’t find such trades on the LSE, so obviously it is happening at some other venue: Hi @ValueSeeker8 CNA closed 86.32. A 5th successive lower close & lowest since 1998. Though the extent of SP falls continue to diminish, it’s still not out of the woods. Next CNA results 30th July. FWIW, it’s been similarly taxing for holders of a few FTSE 100 stocks. Three days ago SBRY closed 187.90. It’s lowest close ever going back to pre-1990s. That bad! That’s also one of my current holds, though I’ve traded it with good results before &, fortunately, I’m not in at too high a level now going by historical levels (my trade on SBRY’s BB). But this can be a hard business at times. - Regards.
ValueSeeker8
27 Jun 2019
RNS - Additional Listing Centrica trading at 86 p! The lowest trade price I’ve ever seen! Couldn’t find such trades on the LSE, so obviously it is happening at some other venue: image.png595x642 34.2 KB The 5-min candlestick chart above shows that it is happening. SAR is signalling strong downtrend while the SP is traded along the falling lower edge of BBs! Best Regards @ValueSeeker8
jackdawsson
26 Jun 2019
RNS - Additional Listing ValueSeeker8: Yes indeed!. The CNA share was even lower (86.24 if I remember correctly) just few days ago! @ValueSeeker8, Correct. CNA saw intraday low of 86.38 on 21st June. Then closed 89.10. Note that closing SPs are regarded as stronger indicators than intraday SP moves. So CNA still in a downtrend, but at least those falls are decreasing. Interesting correlation between CNA & GKP. Your deductions could well lead to a profitable trade. But you’ll also no doubt know to thread carefully with some of these stocks for said reasons But so many stocks badly sold off recently, including many previously considered to be value stocks. More like value traps as it’s turned out. I’d include, BT, CNA, ITV, RMG, VOD, UK banks, food retailers, et al. Some of them proper shockers. For eg. only last year RMG was considered by many as representing value at circa 500, because booming online sales meant its profits would rise. Or so some thought! SP saw over 630 a year ago. Today RMG struggling at 200 & since ousted from FTSE 100. All beaten down for various reasons, so not all of it down to Brexit, granted latter hasn’t helped. Fair to say, some might not recover to recent highs for ages, if at all. In perspective, whilst UKX isn’t exactly flying at 7430+ as I write, neither is it at particularly low levels. It’s been much lower just weeks ago. Granted that low Sterling has boosted the FTSE’s dollar-earning stocks, one does wonder what might happen to some of those previously mentioned stocks if the FTSE saw a proper tanking. FWIW, I hold some of them. Mostly real shares though, bar ITV, so at least I’m no longer facing added perils of leverage. But obviously, like many holders, I’m still far from happy with the degree of underperformance, though I intend to hold most of my stocks longer-term until technically feasible profit targets seen. For eg. LLOY at circa 66+ to 67, a level seen a few weeks ago. We know that nothing is guaranteed in markets. But we get reminders of that aplenty should we ever forget. - All the best!
ValueSeeker8
26 Jun 2019
RNS - Additional Listing jackdawsson: I recall we briefly discussed this a few weeks ago prior to XD on 9th May when SP was 105+ Hi @jackdawsson, Yes indeed!. The CNA share was even lower (86.24 if I remember correctly) just few days ago! The GKP share also fell from ca. 250 p then to 230 p now, but in percentage terms CNA’s fall is more or less double that! However, I am still wondering whether to get back in CNA if/when GKP recovers with so much safety margin that has developed in CNA’s share, which is kind of winning two trades simultaneously, long on GKP and short on CNA! Hmmm… If I could pull that, could I then win the opposite! From experience I doubt it, as the market is always more clever than the punters! But I am a patient guy! Best regards @ValueSeeker8
jackdawsson
26 Jun 2019
RNS - Additional Listing ValueSeeker8: Still waiting on the sidelines on this for re-entry! The CNA share never recovered the x-div dip, but continued to drift downwards since! Hi @ValueSeeker8, I recall we briefly discussed this a few weeks ago prior to XD on 9th May when SP was 105+, which some considered offering value, with most bad news was priced in. Despite CNA’s generous dividend, we both decided there was too much risk. Not least from various uncertain political factors looking ahead. That’s proven to be a good call. Today CNA at 87+. Regarding said uncertain political factors: with Boris Johnson likely to be PM who’ll probably face a no confidence vote, little has changed. Best of luck if you decide to take a stake at some point. Even though I’m mindful that the bottom may be near, I’ve decided to avoid catching any more falling knives. I’d rather buy higher up once a support level is confirmed. - Regards.
ValueSeeker8
26 Jun 2019
RNS - Additional Listing Using scrip dividends causes further 1.78% dilution to CNA’s share. This is part payment of the 2018 final dividend according to the RNS. Still waiting on the sidelines on this for re-entry! The CNA share never recovered the x-div dip, but continued to drift downwards since! : image.png745x601 22.2 KB
martone
16 May 2019
Remuneration of the boss His surname is Conn? Really?
beginwithsummer
14 May 2019
Can't understand why the share price keep going down thanks
pelim
09 May 2019
Can't understand why the share price keep going down Today, xd. Otherwise - still losing customers etc.
beginwithsummer
09 May 2019
Can't understand why the share price keep going down Can’t understand why the share price keep going down
gaso
09 May 2019
Time to be taken out Come on BP Gazprom might beat you to it
ValueSeeker8
02 May 2019
Long @ 131.33 Very interesting @jackdawsson, thanks. The trading page u posted is a sea of red but it could change any moment into a sea of blue, one could never know. It confirms my scepticism and being wary of a share not rising even though it is just few days away from ex-div date, and in CNA case it is a very big payout (> 8% at current SP). Needless to say that no one knows the future. Buying CNA now seems like a real gamble, but I can’t see why would the wanna be buyers not wait until after the ex-div drop, unless of course they know something the average retail trader doesn’t!
jackdawsson
02 May 2019
Long @ 131.33 Hi @ValueSeeker8, Some interesting trades going through here early today, including some huge selling. One at 08.51 sold nearly 14m shares for over £14.5m. See below. Other big sells, too. Mindful that even big holders can get it very wrong, one wonders how bad they see this getting before it recovers? FWIW, I’m very unlikely to be buying in here before ex date after all. Naturally no advice to others intended. - Regards. Screen Shot 2019-05-02 at 09.15.09.png664x550 72.7 KB
ValueSeeker8
01 May 2019
Long @ 131.33 Hi @jackdawsson , Thanks for your reply, in which you mentioned that the anticipated dividend is presumably being priced in. It is widely believed that the dividend will be cut to 10.5 p when one reads articles about CNA. But with ex-div fast approaching and the stock still not getting a boost is rather a worrying sign, so it may be wise for me to wait at least for ex-div drop as well! Thinking around 97p or even less!? However, what complicates matters further for me is that I have to sell GKP shares in order to get back to CNA. Unlike CNA, GKP share price is very sensitive to Brent crude oil price as the below graph illustrates: image.png1196x634 40.4 KB Over the past 6 months, GKP has outperformed Brent by about 15%. With all eyes now on the further tightening of US sanctions on Iranian oil exports, problems in Venezuela and Libya etc it is quite hard to get the timing right with further rise (fall?) in Brent. In short lots of volatility on both sides of the equation for me and I must try my best to get it right! Best Regards @ValueSeeker8
jackdawsson
01 May 2019
Long @ 131.33 Hi @ValueSeeker8, Thanks. I share your views & similar concerns were highlighted recently in CNA’s last report back in February, despite a rise in profits. Frankly, hard to be certain of all that much in this sector recently, bar that a significant cut in dividends here is presumably being priced in for later. Proactiveinvestors UK Centrica plunges on dividend worries as British Gas owner warns on 2019 numbers... Centrica (LON:CNA) - The FTSE 100-listed firm saw its total consumer account numbers fall by 1% in 2018, although adjusted operating profit rose 12% to £1.39bn, boosted by higher commodity prices A bigger risk for later is if UK’s government imploded over Brexit &, conceivably, lets in a far more radical one, be it probably in coalition with SNP. Such an outcome, however unlikely it may seem, seems not impossible in the recent political climate & would obviously pose far greater risks for stocks like CNA. - Regards.
