Nige the snake
05 Mar 2018
this is why cCentrica are going to bomb Its hard to explain but I have had personnel experience with the legal department of Centrica What irritates me more than anything Is the people that run this company have no interest in the shareholders. They are not interested in producing value for money as long as they are OK. Try contacting any of the directors I guarantee you wont get a response I would like to talk to the CEO or any of them please do not invest your hard earned money in this company and please do not believe the buy recommendations sub 50p this year IMHO
FRTEB
05 Mar 2018
Re: Motley Fear I've read TMF's highly negative report on Centrica and I've decided to wait for TMF's highly positive report tomorrow.
frog in a tree
05 Mar 2018
Motley Fear This highly negative report from Motley Fool today:[link] like PTN!F
Temujiin
05 Mar 2018
Re: O/T. Brexit last post Maybe not In response to the suggestion that I'm 'trying to discredit a forecast just because I don't like the answer'.My reply is that the answer (conclusion) is immaterial imo. What totally discredits the DEXEU forecast, is not the conclusion, but the total lack of any transparency over its methodology. This has nothing to do with being for or against Brexit, it is simply unacceptable, and unethical, for an incomplete report, with preliminary findings, with no explanation of what assumptions were made to input into the whatever methodology they have used, to be paraded as if it has any legitimacy at all. It would be the same if the impact results were highly positive for Brexit. It matters not how many people say otherwise, there is no getting around this fundamental point, the forecasts can NOT be examined for data inaccuracies, poor methodology or dubious assumptions as we know nothing of the data used, methodology or assumptions. This is why the forecast should be viewed as highly suspect until such information is released.Finally, I have not blamed anyone for being worried about Brexit, it is a worry as any big change will be, but imo the worry is over hyped and not helped by dubious reports such as the incomplete DEXEU report.
shovelier
05 Mar 2018
Re: O/T. Brexit last post Maybe not The only known fact about Brexit is that nobody knows.As has been pointed out before, half the predictions and models have been made by people or organisations that/who have previously been very wrong so why should they be right this time?Both sides only put forward ‘facts’ and figures that suit their own arguments, understandably.Consequently it is extremely difficult for the average person to make a balanced judgement without a huge amount of independent research and most of us have better things to do with our time.
oilovlam
05 Mar 2018
Re: O/T. Brexit last post Maybe not Temujiin, trying to discredit a forecast just because you don't like the answer isn't sensible IMO. Sure you could argue that government forecasts are usually too pessimistic but you cannot deny that we have the conclusions of an impact study and it predicts the UK will be worse off after Brexit. You can argue that it won't be that bad. But we will see a decline in GDP relative to other economies due to Brexit.... Mrs May's speech all but said that.....trade with the EU will be more difficult afterwards.....the impact study just reflects the inevitable IMO. Perhaps the report didn't model the benefits of FTA's but since those are an unknown entity they may not be enough to make up the Brexit hit.To rubbish a government forecast is similar to saying you don't believe anything the government tells us. Perhaps you don't believe that HS2 will create the economic forecasts that were used to justify the scheme....perhaps you would be correct.....but you cannot ignore the forecast. Indeed if government forecasts were so easily manipulated why wasn't the Brexit forecast massaged to support the Brexit argument (or is there a secret cabal of anti-Brexit economic forecasters in government?!?).People have also said that we haven't seen the economic hit post Brexit that was predicted. Perhaps some of the doom laden predictions were a little absurd (same as the £350m per week for the NHS) but our economy hasn't performed as well as other economies after Brexit. some would argue that we haven't experienced a downturn because the rest of the world is doing rather well and dragging us up by the bootstraps. Economic performance is relative and we are lagging behind and more than likely that is due to Brexit uncertainty (and we haven't even left yet!!)So try not to blame people for being worried about Brexit.....perhaps we just don't believe the 'forecasts' of the economic nirvana that awaits us. But we know that Brexit is inevitable.....we just want to make any potential economic pain as small as possible.Oh yeah...and I don't believe that "No deal is better than a bad deal"...in this respect anyway.
WhoSparticus
05 Mar 2018
Re: Brexit Virus - shoveler/soi So people get tired of others swamping the BB with Brexit and soon people will get tired of others swamping the BB about it. A sort of Meta-whinge.
Temujiin
05 Mar 2018
Re: O/T. Brexit last post Maybe not how do you know it is anonymous, incomplete and includes no methodology?========== =====Frog, perhaps you misunderstand. Nobody in the PUBLIC domain knows anything about this report other than it's imapct conclusions and UKGov said it was incomplete.Perhaps I am wrong, in which case please show me where to find the above information, so we can see if it's another dodgy forecast from the usual suspects, or not.
frog in a tree
05 Mar 2018
Re: O/T. Brexit last post Maybe not TemujiinYou are stretching your argument to the point of ridiculousness.Have you read the financial impact reports that you criticise so strongly. No. So how do you know it is anonymous, incomplete and includes no methodology?The bespoke deal is so vague it would not be possible to produce an impact report on them given so many potential variables.Time to give up Temu.F
Temujiin
05 Mar 2018
Re: O/T. Brexit last post Maybe not I don't think that the recent impact assessments on the various potential forms of Brexit can be called discredited. You might not trust them but that is not the same========== ========Frog, why would and sensible person trust a forecast that is 1. Incomplete2. Anonymous 3. Shows no methodology4. Has no explaination of conclusion findingsIt would be laughed out of the scientific and academic worlds. I wish it was published so it can be publicly examined. If the Norman Lamont produced a forecast saying GDP was going to rise post Brexit by 4% more on WTO rules but the finding are incomplete, authors anonymous and no detail of methodology used, would you accept them as reasonable evidence? No, again, no sensible person would.Re why no bespoke deal, well the anonymous civil servants didnt know if we would get a customs union, EFTA, WTO or the bespoke, but they decided not to model the most positive model. I wonder why.
petethenovice
05 Mar 2018
Re: O/T. Brexit last post Maybe not Your answer is as unsatisfactory as the uncompleted, leaked and unethically secret report itself, which btw, also did not model the scenario of a bespoke deal being agreed! ========== ========== ========== ========== ========== ======The report was secret because the GOV wanted it to show positive for brexit and like most others it showed the opposite, so they made it secretIF you simpy rubbish every report eg economist, these Impact studies etc because they dont give the result you want that shows the weakness of you argument. I really hope some sense comes in UK politics soon as I dont really want to be saying I told you so in a few years time..I am leaving this board as am selling CNA so you can have the last word..
frog in a tree
05 Mar 2018
Re: O/T. Brexit last post Maybe not TemujiinCan I suggest that one reason why no forecasts were made for a "bespoke deal" is simply that there is no clarity of what a bespoke deal would include since May has been very unspecific about what she wants. Assuming that it is some sort of "cake and eat it" scenario it is very unlikely that the EU would agree to it anyway.With regard to forecasts, I don't think that the recent impact assessments on the various potential forms of Brexit can be called discredited. You might not trust them but that is not the same. We have to give some thought to potential outcomes and all of us know that these are best guesses made by persons with appropriate knowledge and experience.I reather think that the outcomes of Brexit are likely to be so negative that you Brexiters rather not risk the public being informed of this.All the best,F
FRTEB
05 Mar 2018
Re: Brexit Virus - shoveler/soi I really don't mind the off topic stuff. Sometimes I find it interesting, sometimes not, in which case I don't have to read it. It's a simple concept! Sooner or later the main topic comes back to the stock in question when something interesting happens, but if there's nothing much going on - no news - minimal sp movement - then it's not surprising that people talk about something else - much as in real life. C'est la vie.
oilovlam
05 Mar 2018
Re: Brexit Virus - shoveler/soi I was surprised that Brexit debate came onto the CNA board. It is interesting to see the characters involved in the discussion. I don't know if it is my imagination but the gulf between the two sides seems to be narrowing. Perhaps sense will prevail and Mrs May's 'middle of the road' approach will work.Brexit has been a topic on the Lloyds board for a while. It died down over Xmas and the new year but is getting 'noisier' again. That is probably the place to go and not CNA. Although some on the Lloyds board are annoyed by it all.
PrefInvestor1
05 Mar 2018
Re: Brexit Virus - shoveler/soi Hi Both,For me the issue comes down to the volume of the O/T posts. If there are smallish number you can just look past them. My problem comes when the whole board gets swamped with these posts, as has happened on the Lloyds board and is now happening here as well. When that happens it completely turns me off and I just lose interest in those boards.It’s not that I don’t accept that the discussions are valid, and clearly to some interesting. For me it is that they are just in the wrong place and what was needed was a “Brexit board” board where people could discuss this stuff. To me it has no place on a stock specific board like this, or even Lloyds where brexit is perhaps more business relevant.That’s it from me. If the board stays like this I shall not be back,ATBPref
