pauloverdi
20 Jun 2016
Flybridge !! Where r u Flybridge? You took the proverbial out of btg and bugged up Circaasia !! Woodford Fund Note state:-We want you to know about an update we have received from one of our portfolio companies this morning, Circassia. It has this morning announced the failure of its high-profile phase III study into its cat allergy vaccine. We have just met with the company and would like to share our latest thoughts with you following this announcement.This is undoubtedly a disappointing development. We had high hopes for this trial and are therefore surprised at its failure, particularly when you consider some of the positive aspects of the trial data. The drug has demonstrated a very positive effect, with patients on all doses of the treatment showing a 60% improvement in their symptoms with a very good safety profile. This is better than we had expected – in fact, it’s better than anyone had expected.The problem is, the trial results also showed a dramatic placebo effect. The trial was being conducted on people with a severe allergic reaction to cats – whether these people had been administered the drug or a placebo, the trial results showed broadly the same impact on symptoms.This is unprecedented – such a placebo effect hadn’t been seen before in earlier studies on Circassia’s cat allergy product, any of its other potential allergy treatments, or indeed in competitor’s studies in allergy. It is highly unusual to see such a high placebo effect in a clinical study and it is difficult to explain how and why such an effect has been seen.We had a meeting with Circassia’s management team earlier today to get a full and comprehensive update on this trial disappointment and on the company’s wider performance. The company is in the process of analysing the full dataset to try to better understand this placebo riddle and what it means for its wider allergy pipeline as soon as it can. It has already announced that it is halting investment in its earlier-stage allergy trials until it better understands these results. There are two mature trials which will continue to completion: a phase IIb study in house dust mite allergy and a phase II trial in birch allergy. We would be pleased if these trials demonstrate such a strong effect on patients as the cat allergy phase III study, but at this stage, it is impossible to know if the unusual placebo effect will be evident in these trials also.It is also worth bearing in mind that there is much more to Circassia than the allergy platform. As a result of acquisitions made last year, it has become a more diverse business with some very attractive respiratory products both in the market and under development. Its NIOX asthma management franchise is performing well and offers considerable growth potential and the company will also continue to progress its Prosonix respiratory portfolio. The company remains very well-financed, with net cash of almost £140m on its balance sheet.All of this should be borne in mind when considering the stock market reaction to this news which has seen Circassia’s shares fall by over 65% today. We would expect an announcement like this to be greeted by a share price decline but it is the nature of the stock market to over-react to negative news, with the immediate reaction typically much greater than long-term fundamentals would justify. That is almost certainly the case here – this is a significant disappointment for Circassia but we remain supportive shareholders and from here, we continue to see long-term value in the shares.
LK Hyman
20 Jun 2016
A cosy club "Circassia boss Steve Harris is also a director of the Woodford Patient Capital trust."Hmmm. I suspect that he hasn't got a cat in hell's chance of getting a fee increase from Woody this year.LKH on the flybrdidge a cat in hell's chance ... do you see what I did there?
LK Hyman
20 Jun 2016
Re: Sneeze Still learning,"Might get a dead cat bounce"I bet that Woody is prayin' for one .... he's got over 19% of this munter!LKH on the flybridge
Still learningafterallthistime
20 Jun 2016
Re: Sneeze Might get a dead cat bounce. sorry, I'll leave now. as a cat allergy sufferer, i had great hopes for them.... SL
LK Hyman
20 Jun 2016
Re: digitallook Games,Sorry, no, I don't use digitallook.LKH etc
gamesinvestor
20 Jun 2016
digitallook LK - an aside subject.Do you use digitallook for tracking stocks?I'm unable to access the portfolio section, it comes back with "Bad Gateway".Just wondered if you had the same problem.Games
gamesinvestor
20 Jun 2016
Re: Sneeze "Maybe they're as useless as these moggy tabs apparently are."That's the key question. The underlying approach is common, I believe, across several allergies.If it's not effective for the Cat Allergy, it might be reasonable to assume that the approach has little merit in tackling dust mites, hayfever bla bla!Games -- I'm undecided as yet.
LK Hyman
20 Jun 2016
Re: Sneeze Games,"are you selling and taking the loss?"Haven't decided yet, m8. Whaddya whaddya? The extent of the fall feels a bit like an initial overreaction to me. CIR have other tabs, don't they? But who knows? Maybe they're as useless as these moggy tabs apparently are.LKH on the flybridge
gamesinvestor
20 Jun 2016
Re: Sneeze I knew I should never have followed Woody into what has proved ... unexpectedly to me ... to be a munter!LK -- I'm done with Woody -- his investments style is pure scatter gun with 110 in his main fund now.His team don't analyse financials at all, as they would not be investors in Game Digital - down from 350 to 80, Drax, Rolls Royce at the peak, G4S, Prothema, Alkermes etc etcGames -- This is my last bio investment -- are you selling and taking the loss?
LK Hyman
20 Jun 2016
Re: Sneeze Games,Aaaaaaaiiiieeeeee!!!!I knew I should never have followed Woody into what has proved ... unexpectedly to me ... to be a munter!Fortunately I didn't have much wedge in CIR, but this is still an uncomfortable lesson not to invest in matters where I am not an expert.[link] on the flybridge crying ... though not as much as Wood
gamesinvestor
20 Jun 2016
Sneeze [link] greatGames
gamesinvestor
13 Jun 2016
Imperial Innovations Neil Woodford invested a further £11.6M into Imperial Innovations, who's biggest holding is Circassia with a 9.3% stake.Woody now own's 19.9% + this stake in Imperial Innovations.He also has a big stake directly in Circassia so he must be pretty confident in the results on the Cat allergy vaccine due out later this month.Games
gamesinvestor
13 Jun 2016
Re: I see that Woody ... LK -- 0.57% of my wad, so just the palms sweating at the moment. 6% down, but I guess it's all on the success of the moggy sneeze cure, the immediate stock price probably doesn't mean much.If it fails you can kiss good bye to your 1.5% and my 0.57% -- if it passes, it'll be Mai Tai's on the beach!!Games
LK Hyman
01 Jun 2016
I see that Woody ... ... has gone over 19% in this puppy. Let's hope that that is a good sign, cos I'm well down, albeit only with 1.5% of the wad in CIR.LKH in the flybridge sweating a bit
gamesinvestor
25 May 2016
Trials [link] or 177 depending on the results.LK - it's stick or twist on this oneGames -- I'll see it out irrespective of the bandits with their hands in the till.
