methilman
21 Dec 2014
Re: selling xl shares XL are big enough for the share price not to be diluted too much - most of the proposed deal is for cash and I would imagine platforms/brokers will put in place dealing arrangements.XL have not performed badly over 1, 3 and 5 year timescales so it might be worthwhile hanging on to their shares - mind you the yield is less than 2%.What to do with the cash proceeds - just had MTM and CSR taken over as well - pile it back into other London insurers? Alternatively, does anyone have any thoughts on ALM and KBT?Mm.
seadoc
21 Dec 2014
Re: Deal agreed per Sunday Times Also on Torygraph, but terms not confirmed before next ear:[link]
sinnet
21 Dec 2014
Deal agreed per Sunday Times [link] agreed yesterday per ST
paddington_bear
20 Dec 2014
Time to go? Back in the early 1990s the London insurance marine markets were reeling from disasters like Hurricane Andrew, Exxon Valdez oil pollution and Piper Alpha drilling rig. The previous few years had been reasonably profitable, leading to extreme competition and low rates. Over a third of the syndicates and companies subsequently withdrew from London, nursing horrible losses. Mr Catlin and I both led organisations that survived and then flowered as terms and conditions were dramatically tightened by underwriters. That is the cyclical nature of London insurance, especially if you concentrate mainly on reinsurance. Working in it can be highly exhilarating but also stressful. My observation is that Mr Catlin is now 60 and has been selling down his shares in the firm for a while - could a negotiated deal with XL be an appropriate finale to a magnificent career? DYOR.PB
Mpg1
20 Dec 2014
selling xl shares If the deal goes through will CGL holders get a guaranteed price which they can sell their xl shares?If everyone decides to dump them it may depress the price some what.
gamesinvestor
19 Dec 2014
Re: Featured in Tempus today (The Times) Bronc - having read the full article I am more balanced on the view, however, the statement on XL shares falling is now being reversed with recent rises, it's up 1.15% today to $33.54 just a couple of dollars off it's 52 week high.Full article :-"Shares in Catlin Group, the insurer, have done surprisingly little this year, despite the fact that it is a perennial bid target and the recent approach from XL Group. Neither have investors reacted positively to the absence of huge catastrophe losses. Indeed, there can be no certainty the deal will go through. Even if it does, the value of the same is uncertain because about two-fifths of the purchase price will be paid in XL paper, which has been dropping. As if that were not enough, at about 1.4 times net asset value the price is not especially generous either. Lastly, there is no guarantee of a counterbid. Some investors may want to consider taking profits, although the more adventurous should hang in there, Tempus says"Games -- Hanging on in for now
gamesinvestor
19 Dec 2014
Re: Featured in Tempus today (The Times) Bronc, Why would you take profits if the current share price is more than 8% below the offer price of 699 equivalent?You can always sell the US shares if you don't feel comfortable holding. This seems like the minimum you could get, unless of course the deal falls flat in which case there will be a pull back in CGL shares - is that likely I dunno?Maybe there is another potential buyer in the wings and the price could go higher.Games
sinnet
19 Dec 2014
Other Bids? Comment in the FT"Mr Hossain of RBC says that while the deal offers “good value for Catlin shareholders”, there is a significant chance of a higher bid.“We expect that other larger players in the market that are struggling for growth could also make offers,” he says."However the share price is saying that Mr Market doesn't think there will be other bids and that there is a good chance the XL bid will not go through. Probably Mr Market knows what is likely to be the outcome, given that these city types all drink in the same bars, and Catlin is a city business?This will only go through if Steven Catlin wants it and perhaps he's looking forward to retiring!
seadoc
19 Dec 2014
Re: anyone think "Re a possible insurance hit, would it make any difference?"Normal insurance, probably not. The premium is invested in bonds, payouts occur through the year, the premiums are adjusted for next year.Most reinsurance is "regular business". The sum assured, or rather the bit not covered by further re-insurance, is invested in bonds, and re-invested each year. There will eventually be a hit. The sale of bonds will fund the call, no problems but If it happens at the beginning year no income from the bond for the year. So I think a "biggie" will affect the deal in a material way. But of course in terms of this offer it is the effect of sentiment on the market and uncertainty about how well hedged the risk is that would be a deal killer.Then again CGL is but a tiny part of the world's insurance market. If taken over by XL it would contribute about 1/5 to the combined group. That is working from XL Cap of $11B compared to CLG at £2.3B say $3B. But CGL is only 10% of the size of the tenth largest (ING) with $35B and about 1% of the biggest (Warren Buffett) which is worth $250B. That is why I do not think we have heard the final offer and there may be other players who want to get involved.But sentimentally I am with you on not wishing to lose CGL, I have had good income from CGL over the years I have held it in my retirement fund. I agree London has particular expertise in insurance and it has been nice to fund my retirement through investment in a London company.Regards,Seadoc
Broncomaniac
19 Dec 2014
Featured in Tempus today (The Times) Comments that the takeover value is above the current share price, but many UK investors would not want to hold shares in a US company they have probably never heard of, hence the current discount.Has some other things to say, but recommends either to Take profits or hold if you are more adventurous. (He says he is personally holding). Don't have on-line access to can't post the article.
Greyinvestor
19 Dec 2014
Re: anyone think Re a possible insurance hit, would it make any difference?Both parties insure the same risks, and part payment is in shares. So the deal would be pretty neutral to risk.My preference is for CGL to take out a smaller underwriter; NVA, BRIT, LRE.........
seadoc
18 Dec 2014
Re: anyone think FTREB,Dyslexia rules! 631.39.I thought they were quite big players in reinsurance and obviously any hit on one would hit all involved in reinsurance, hence the bid would have some get out clause until the ink had dried.[link]
FRTEB
18 Dec 2014
Re: anyone think " In the meantime I am happy to top up at 361.36 and await events."I am happy to top up (lots!) at 361.36 too. Please let me know who your broker is!!! 
You raise an interesting point though regarding major reinsurance risks putting the kybosh on the deal, except CGL are very well diversified and would only take a percentage hit in the event of anything major happening. And if the worst did happen, insurance premiums would go up. That's the nature of the beast.
seadoc
18 Dec 2014
Re: anyone think Bronco, Agreed, either Mr Market doubts the deal will go ahead or perhaps has just fired a shot across bows of waking colleagues in New York. Be interested what happens at 1430. But the yield at 630 is still generous and only just off 5%. The upside (alleged offer, so far!) is about 10%. A fall of 10% to 560's is where I was thinking of buying. I guess the biggest immediate danger is San Andreas/Transalpine/Mount Fuji or any of the other major reinsurance risks in which case the deal will evaporate faster than water in the Sahara. In the meantime I am happy to top up at 361.36 and await events.Regards,Seadoc
Broncomaniac
18 Dec 2014
Re: anyone think Well based on the current shareprice, it seems the market is doubting the deal will go ahead. Either that or it doesn't place much value on the equity part of the offer.
