Mpg1
09 Jan 2015
Re: Upside Down Regarding high p/e ratios I looked at arm and seen it has a whopping 133. I thought it may have loads of cash to but it doesnt. a look p/e tech stock with potential is globo.Back to cgl, how long do these deals usually take as Im thinking it may be worth bailing out on the next spike...... pretty impatient!
UAE Sunshine
09 Jan 2015
Re: Upside Down MmDid hold CSR a couple of years ago when it took over US outfit and dropped from £4 to £1.80 I sold at a loss when it stalled at £3.30 on way back - wrong call but once you miss the surge it takes a lot of B*lls to go back in. Held ARM for 5 years and saw it fall to 80p and sold out at £1.80 on way up - even worse move!! The high p/e's are very scary.I don't buy much tech stock but am holding a lot of Spirent (SPT) at average 95p so was happy with today's move from 77 to 87. Have held for a year and decided not sell for @£1.10 last March so now going to stick with it for the long haul.The rest of my 2013/14 trades have been a lot more fruitful otherwise I would be skint.Hope CGL move up is a good omen and Admiral is up well so great day for me.Regard
methilman
07 Jan 2015
Re: Upside Down There will be considerable reinsurance so Catlin and XL will not take the full hit.The boat won't sink - it will just require some (no doubt) expensive repairs.Not a big issue in the overall scheme of things.If you are looking for a quick turn you might also consider CSR - a bit further down the takeover track and an all cash offer.Mm.
UAE Sunshine
06 Jan 2015
Upside Down Upside very appropriate!! The ferry on its side in Solent - hull insured by Catlin and XL!!Probably why the drop in last 2 days.I only bought last week for that quick 5% upside - knew it would not be that simple!!Lets hope it floats tomorrow - if it sinks so will C atlin.www.lloydslist.com/ll/sector/Insurance/article455042.ec
FRTEB
06 Jan 2015
Re: Upside? What do you think would be fair value for Catlin if the XL deal does not go through? If higher than the current sp then Buy...I am not buying any more but I have no intention of selling my existing holding.
PJ Foster
06 Jan 2015
Re: Upside? I presume that as the pound keeps dropping vs the dollar, that the better this deal will be for UK holders. We'll see how this pans out. I have no idea yet what I'd rather have my cash in.Cheers,
farmerdave
06 Jan 2015
Re: Upside? XL up as well to give net 7.01 per Catlin share
seadoc
04 Jan 2015
Re: Upside? Gamesinvestor,Happy New Year. I topped up on 18th, 10% upside and a 5.1% yield if an offer was not made. But I would agree with you that it is odd that there remains an upside and I guess some have reservations about the possibility of an offer. I did venture the suggestion that a major disaster would dent the price of both CGL and XL. That might keep the short term traders on the side lines. There is also the hassle of selling the XL if you do not want to fill in reams of paperwork for regulators in USofA. And lastly I guess the majority shareholders are fund managers who had done the books for the year end and went on holiday after the office party at lunchtime on 19th. They may be tempted to top up when they get back to their desks in the morning.Regards,Seadoc
gamesinvestor
02 Jan 2015
Upside? Stock still trading at 660If the deal goes ahead there's a 5-6% upside here.Worth adding a few more perhaps?Any information that would suggest it won't happen?Games -- no such thing as a sure fire bet of course
Guitarsolo
31 Dec 2014
Re: Approaching 699p SBG, Many thanks for taking the time to respond. Perhaps I am imagining a problem when there isn't really one. I use HSBC's Invest Direct so will contact them.If I remove the thought of any US-government demons (and there are so many! I was staggered they thought they had the right to fine GSK for the China bribery malarkey - fining a foreign company for mis-deeds carried out in another foreign country. Imagine if that attitude was inverted on the US of A!)......sorry going off track......back to CGL and XL Group. I work as a consultant (loss adjuster) for both CGL and XL. I would regard both as highly professional although perhaps the edge goes to CGL on account of it being a Lloyd's Syndicate and therefore operating more in the speciality fields (including my speciality). But XL have recently been ramping up their underwriting capacity across the board. And, if you believe their claims guys (and I do) with remarkably low claims ratios (in my field again). That could change of course. XL doesn't really fit with my investment plan which is mainly for income. The divi is rather stingy compared to CGL's for sure. But it is a good quality company and its share price could appreciate nicely over the next few years. If you believe the USD is likely to strengthen against GBP as well over that time it could be even better. I don't know yet! But I will sure miss CGL from my income orientated portfolio.GS
sportbillygoat
31 Dec 2014
Re: Approaching 699p GSI think the same W-8BEN form is required for all UK brokers when you buy US stocks. It allows you to claim a rebate on the withholding tax applied to US dividends. It's not onerous like renewing your passport, it's one single A4 page with about 12 spaces to fill in (including your name, address, signature and the date) and ittakes about as long to complete as it does to read this. It lasts for about 3 years I think.I'm willing to bet your broker will have a pdf on their website which you print off, fill in and mail back to them. You only need one form per broker for all your US investments. If you want a sample of what a typical form might look like for a bog standard UK private investor using an online broker; here's computershare's example.[link] hold a few US stocks where I think they add diversity to my portfolio that isn't available on the LSE, I don't buy the currency risk argument since a lot of LSE listed companies report in US dollars and declare dividends in dollars too. And I think the LSE isn't equally representative for all sectors - it's top heavy with oil, mining and finance.SBG
Guitarsolo
31 Dec 2014
Approaching 699p It may just be the holiday season and everyone being in a good mood, but the price is slowly creeping up towards the 699p offer price from XL. A couple of thoughts/ questions:I still see no sign of a counter offer (possibly all cash) but admit I haven't been scanning the news as much as I could. Does anyone believe there could be one? Or have Catlin nailed their colours to the XL mast?XL is a US company and therefore, I believe, foreign shareholders are required to complete onerous forms for the IRS (WB78 or something like that). I deliberately bailed out of VOD when they sold Verizon precisely because I didn't want to be declaring anything to Uncle Sam. Does anyone (a) know if the same forms would be required to be completed if I accepted the XL shares and (b) exactly how onerous is it? Am I imagining a problem that isn't really there?HNY to you all!Guitarsolo
gamesinvestor
30 Dec 2014
Re: Happy Christmas Hi Grey, Understand your sentiment re US stocks, unfortunately that does restrict returns for UK investors, because most of the leading companies are US based. Terry Smith considers there are perhaps only 75 companies world wide worth investing in and a good % of his 26 holdings are US. 16 out of the 26 to be precise.UK betting is intense I agree, but William Hill is a global company now and is set to grow very nicely. Another activist investor is increasing his position last week to over 11% of the company.GKN is only partially exposed to aerospace, having cleverly and cheaply acquired Saab Aerospace. The main businesses are auto parts and they dominate, axles, drive train components etc, metallurgy and land systems.Kone - again is a worldwide business - 2nd in the world with huge potential in China. It's a bit up and down though On Aerospace -- I bought Rolls Royce for the first time when it dipped to the 750 level, but sold BAE Systems.Games
Greyinvestor
29 Dec 2014
Re: Happy Christmas Thanks for the ideas. I'm sure that you are right about Ebay, but I don't feel qualified to buy US stocks; not enough on line information/analytics for me, and currency risk too. Older US tech does seem like a decent sector though.UK betting; not so good, I think. UK aerospace; a possibility with GKN, SNRKone, possible. DWHT is closer to home and good value. Tiny, huge spread. But a decent business. Maybe I need to buy Stockopedia for the first time......
gamesinvestor
29 Dec 2014
Re: Happy Christmas "but I would really like to discover a new sector"Hi Grey, Not really a sector, other than a valuable component of a sector - "payment processing"I'm building up a good stake in eBay on the basis that despite the company continuing to grow revenue and profits, it's stock price hasn't run away all silly in the last 2 years. It's cap is about $68BN and it owns PayPal, which will be split off from eBay in 2015 after a lot of pressure from an activist investor called Icahn who has put similar pressure on Apple to instigate buy backs and unlock shareholder value (I'm not a great fan of buybacks or Apple).PayPal on the other hand I do like and it is very profitable and processes 10 Million transactions per day and has 150 million active wallets / registered users. PayPal's growth rate is about double that of eBay which in itself is non too shabby. The feeling in the water is that PayPal stand alone could soon be worth in excess of $100BN which is higher than the two companies combined -- eBay would effectively be free if PayPal only reaches $68Bn in the next few years.Games -- well that's one -- I'd also buy Microsoft, Kone, some GKN and WMH
