FRTEB
17 Dec 2014
Possible Offer - RNS Possible OfferCatlin Group Limited (the "Company"
, notes the recent press speculation regarding the Company and movement in the Company's share price. The Company confirms that it has received an approach from XL Group ("XL" on a possible combination of XL and Catlin ("Possible Offer", the key terms of which are set out below. A combination of XL and Catlin would create a leading player in property and casualty insurance and reinsurance and expand opportunities for the combined underwriting team in the global marketplace.Under the indicative terms of the Possible Offer, XL would acquire 100% of Catlin for consideration of 410 pence in cash and 0.130 shares of XL for each Catlin common share. On the basis of the closing price of an XL share on 16 December of $35.01, an exchange rate of $1.573:£1 and a fully diluted share count of 386 million shares, the Possible Offer values each Catlin share at 699 pence. Under the terms of the Possible Offer, Catlin shareholders would not receive a final dividend for the year ended 31 December 2014.Catlin also confirms that it is in advanced negotiations regarding the sale of its interest in Box Innovation Group Limited (trading as ITB). In the event a sale is agreed on terms which generate surplus capital, any distribution of that surplus to Catlin shareholders would be in addition to the indicative terms of the Possible Offer.Discussions are currently ongoing between both parties and the final terms of any Possible Offer are subject to the completion of mutual due diligence. There can be no certainty that the discussions will lead to any transaction or any certainty as to the final terms on which any such transaction might proceed. A further announcement will be made in due course.This announcement is being made without the agreement or approval of XL.---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- There's not a lot to dislike there although I haven't a clue who XL Group are. Even so, 699 (albeit only 410 in cash) + surplus capital on the sale of Box = one happy (soon to be ex)-shareholder. Only problem is, which other insurer would I invest in (apart from Amlin) ?
pasak
17 Dec 2014
Re: CGL rumours Couldn't resist dumping half my holding 671.51. May live to regret it.
Greyinvestor
17 Dec 2014
CGL rumours Just on the subject of rumours, there have often been rumours about CGL in the autumn. None have been true, so far. In the same way there have often been rumours about a special dividend. Again these have been untrue in the past.I think that you should regard CGL as a steady dividend payer, come rain, come snow. No specials, no bids, very variable EPS, and so a bit unpopular in the City, very exposed to catastrophes also, which also makes them unpopular. But they exactly fit the profile of my perfect holding.Could this just be someone spreading rumours while they dump their stock? If a bid does come, I will be disappointed. I need the divis.What I have noticed is that the share price of this sector tends to fall further than the dividend. Hence me picking up some LRE this morning.......
Greyinvestor
17 Dec 2014
CGL price I must admit to being quite shocked at the big rise in CGL. In my view, £5 ish is the right buy in price. But I'm not selling, simply because I believe in the company and am in for the long haul. However, I have used the time to add to my LRE holding, quite substantially. In my view they are now keenly priced as a dividend stock. But DYOR.
Mpg1
17 Dec 2014
bad timing! Sold first thing this morning with a limit order only to get up and see a TO rumour!I know it may be BS , but after being in rubbish stocks for so long I could`nt risk being out if a bid comes in so bought back in all 9ks worth. hope its not bull..... but oh well . GL
gamesinvestor
17 Dec 2014
Oh how I love to be proved wrong It's all in the titlesomething is happening here:-""""Catlin up 2.8 per cent to 582p on rumours a bid approach. If Catlin finishes the year with major losses, they could pay a special dividend next year.""""Games
ExpatBill
17 Dec 2014
Takeover? Item in the FT about a possible CGL takeover could have caused some of the buying
Broncomaniac
17 Dec 2014
Re: CGL future Goodness me, its looking very pricy now. Good return for anyone buying in at the £5 level that Grey Investor often recommends. It wouldn't surprise me to see this back down at £5 at some point in the next 12 months, but I think I'll just hold on to them. I'm not buying any more at these levels though.
gamesinvestor
17 Dec 2014
Re: CGL future "Take your pick "FRTEB -- I'll put it down to Santa, that do? Games
FRTEB
16 Dec 2014
Re: CGL future "Any clues as to why in a falling market? -- no announcements to speak of."As is often the case games.It could have been the search for yield or a relatively safe haven, the day of the week had a T in it, it didn't/did rain today, etc. Take your pick
gamesinvestor
16 Dec 2014
Re: CGL future Well thanks to both of you guys for persuading me not to sell. Especially so with a 3% rise today.Any clues as to why in a falling market? -- no announcements to speak of.Games
Greyinvestor
14 Dec 2014
CGL future I note the debate on future earnings at CGL.The first point to note is surely that no one has a prayer of forecasting earnings at a non life insurer operating in the catastrophe market. Look back over history; they are all over the place, due to the occurrence of catastrophes. So the forecasts are bunk.What is reasonable is to take a view on rates, which are falling. If you lose 3% on rates and your margin is 18%, you just lost one sixth of your earning power. So you have to grow by a sixth to make up for it. I would suggest that CGL earnings are following the insurance cycle downward.Insurance rates normally pick up after catastrophes; this time they will be a lot slower to pick up, because of excess liquidity in the market from pension funds, hedge funds and catastrophe bonds.A final large influence comes from interest rates; rising rates increase investment returns, but not in the short term. In the short term they depress them.So all non life insurers are in the toughest market ever. Nevertheless I hold most of my worldly wealth in them. Why?If you need dividend yield, which of these would you buy;Oils?Miners?Drug companies?Tobaccos?Banks? Non life insurers?Dud companies with huge gearing?Take your pick; Neil Woodford and groupies say Tobacco and Drugs. I don't disagree, but both are massively geared. I prefer non life insurers. I recently bought some STAN too.I think that CGL has shot up because it represents one of the last 'safe' bastions of yield.As to next year v this year, next year must surely be worse. This year there have been almost no catastrophes. I continue to hold CGL, as well as LRE, BRIT, AML, BEZ. Where else can I get yield, except with HSTN, STAN and most of all HFEL? I'm a big holder of HFEL.Best insurers just now, by value; probably LRE, followed by AML, BRIT. But CGL has the best balance sheet.
FRTEB
12 Dec 2014
Re: Next Year From the FT link I posted previously, under the "Earnings history & estimates" section:"On Aug 08, 2014, Catlin Group Limited reported semi annual 2014 earnings of 0.70 per share. This result exceeded the 0.44 expectation of the one analyst covering the company and exceeded last year's results for the same period by 0.38."Which just illustrates how little analysts know and why you shouldn't put too much faith in forecasts.Nevertheless, the earnings bar charts don't look too bad to me - orange = forecast / red = reported. 31st December 2015 is too far away to make any meaningful analysis at the moment IMHO.We aren't yet at the end of 2014 so it doesn't make much sense to me to be worrying about what the results might be at the end of 2015 - reported in 2016. Anything good or bad could happen between now and then. If the divi turns out to be 31.55p for Y/E 2015 (and that figure is only forecast - see above) it will still be more than it was when I bought into Catlin and (depending on the share price) it may well still be an enticing dividend yield to buy into.The shares - currently 576 - are near the top of a trading channel so there is a potential trade there, but if they drop to the bottom of the channel I'll still be in profit. The problem I have is that I've come a cropper before - selling at the top of a channel - only to watch as the damn sp breaks out of above the top of it.At the end of the day I think Catlin and Amlin are two of the strongest insurance and re-insurance companies out there so I'm continuing to hold both for the time being. If something fact based comes to light then I'll reassess, but I ain't selling on the basis of some random analyst(s) calculations that more often than not turn out to be miscalculations.
gamesinvestor
12 Dec 2014
Re: Next Year FRTEB, no dispute on the $ and £ signs mate, but there is still a decline in 2014 from previous year on EPS.Plus as highlighted in the last posts that the £'s are consistent between 2014 and 2015 and that highlights a decline in all three - pre-tax profit, EPS and the dividend.Games
gamesinvestor
12 Dec 2014
Re: Next Year FRTEB -- Are you not comfortable with these numbers below?Interesting there are similar declines highlighted for Amlin and Hiscox so it kind of puts the market expectations into perspective -- I'm wondering if we are close to the top of the cycle here.two years in a row :- EPS 2014 / 2013 -- decline of 12% 2015 / 2014 -- decline forecast of 13% Pretax Profit 2015 / 2014 -- decline forecast of 13% Dividend 2014 -- 34.07p actual 2015 -- 31.55p forecast - a decline of 7.4% Games
