tornadotony
01 Nov 2019
November gold since 2003 In the following years it fell 2007, 2009,2012, 2013,2014, 2015, 2016 7 occasions. In 2003, 2004, 2010 and 2011 it rose with a very sharp fall in December and sometimes in January. In 2017 it rose but we had the summer collapse of 2018. In 2018 we got a rise after it fell throughout the summer. The rise in 2008 was after a major October fall. In 2006 it was neutral and did nothing. Only in 2005 was their November rally and it just continued rising. 2019 is not like anything in 2005.
tornadotony
31 Oct 2019
I agree with this particular article If WTI drops another $2 oil barrels to ounce of gold breaks 29. It has happened only 5 times before since 1971. One of those was an oil price collapse with oil to cheap and the other 4 were due to gold being over valued at that time.
tornadotony
28 Oct 2019
I agree with this particular article macrotrends.net Gold to Oil Ratio - Historical Chart This interactive chart tracks the ratio of the price of gold per ounce over the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil per barrel. It tells you how many barrels of oil you can buy with one ounce of gold. Oil barrels to gold price forming a peak. Either oil goes shooting up or gold price drops.
tornadotony
26 Oct 2019
I agree with this particular article [link]
tornadotony
25 Oct 2019
sliced @ 137 Hi Ripley If it repeats the chart pattern of two similar rallies in August and September, the retreat on Monday is back down to 1496-1500 on Monday and for the weekly close to be near $1468. If that pattern emerges a confirmation of the downtrend in gold into November is then confirmed. Those are big ifs. TT
Ripley94
25 Oct 2019
sliced @ 137 CEY… XXXX Sold that 113p top up back today for 117p… Just sticking to a plan .
tornadotony
24 Oct 2019
A target of wishful thinking Hi JB Gold has leapt over 1500 in the futures and has not gone the way I expected. I have decided not to chase the market. My interest is more to do with a relaxing holiday at some point. I wish everyone who has jumped in the best of luck whoever out there reads our missives. As long as we have our health, everything else is a bonus. The market has its cycles and there is always another equity bus to catch another time. Happiness can sometimes be the freedom of not watching an equity portfolio go south. If the chances that I like arise I will publish the buys on here. Until then best wishes. Tony
Jargon_Buster
24 Oct 2019
A target of wishful thinking You do a lot more analysis than I do @tornadotony. I tend to work on my gut feeling after taking in information. Not very scientific I know. My gut feeling tends to agree with your analysis. I’m just not being tempted to buy. Where I might disagree is the potential to still make money. Although there might be better bets out there right now. You were previously very successful at small profit trades, where I feared to tread. 107p was getting to a value that was starting to tempted me. Yesterdays inexplicable rise seems to have caught us both out. I’m not sure what to make of it. I tend to place it as not really connected to the report but more connected to recovery after recent drops. If I’m right we may soon be back below 110p. I’ll wait and see but very comfortable to be in cash right now. Whatever you decide to do @tornadotony best of luck. JB
tornadotony
24 Oct 2019
A target of wishful thinking As an example for those who are comfortable with 470,000 ounces as being realistic at 1500 gold price my table gives a value of 104.5p.
tornadotony
24 Oct 2019
A target of wishful thinking JB The absolute lowest valuation I have for Centamin is currently 94p. I believe the gold price has to retest 1380 to get down to that price. The share at present is pricing in an average gold price of 1500 per ounce and only a modest miss on the target. The current price is not allowing investors to come in and have any discount risk in the gold price dropping back. It is assuming that 3 weeks of a good run rate will apply over the entire 13 weeks. I have created a table for ounces produced against average quarterly gold prices and have taken an AISC that beats the upper end of the Centamin target. The only head room investors have is a dividend against everything else that can wrong. Tony
tornadotony
24 Oct 2019
A target of wishful thinking JB I may ignore Centamin completely. The idea of high grading the mine to then find we have many quarters of issues in 2020 is perhaps not appealing to me. The explanation of ground conditions on the west wall does not cut it (forgive the pun) for me. The underground ore is very low grade. Something is not right here and if the stock is not priced to take the risk, I am staying out for the time being. Tony
Jargon_Buster
23 Oct 2019
A target of wishful thinking What can one say. How do we make sense of today’s response. The only thing I can come up with is some smoke and mirrors and a recently depleted share price. We have taken quite a SP hit, perhaps in anticipation of a dire report. Maybe the report isn’t as dire as folk thought it might be. It has been reported as being bullish. My ears pricked up at the statement “A new, significant, 10km long gold-mineralised anomaly at the Doropo Project, the Kilosegui deposit located within 20km of the main resource area.†If I read the analysis correctly that should generate 120,000 oz. Hardly 'significant. So perhaps today’s rise was just a rebound from recent falls and just happened to coincide with today’s report. Still waiting on the sidelines. JB
Ripley94
23 Oct 2019
sliced @ 137 CEY… XXXX The bottom was 107p on 22nd … a week after i jumped in . Back to my top up on today’s… RNs.
tornadotony
23 Oct 2019
A target of wishful thinking The company earned just $35M free cash flow up to 30 June. At September 30th it was up to $39M. The company target is to somehow deliver $53M profit from 158,000 ounces at an AISC below $810 for the quarter. The current price assumes all this will be done at a gold price sell above $1490. All I can say is good luck with all of that. 3 weeks of good mining data can still be hit with unexpected ore dilution. If folks believe in fairy tales and love the story well good luck. The share price is offering no discount for anything going wrong except for 4 cents of dividend. I have seen value traps before and I am staying out and just wish everybody invested good luck. Tony
tornadotony
23 Oct 2019
Excited I can not believe that the share has gone up after earning just $4.1M in the last quarter.
