Jargon_Buster
07 Nov 2019
Gold resistance and support Gold testing 1460 now @tornadotony If this is maintained we could break that barrier. Friday should be interesting for Centamin if this holds. JB
Jargon_Buster
07 Nov 2019
Gold resistance and support Gold at 1467 as I type, Centamin’s 15 minute delay price still holding up as the market winds down. Your @tornadotony 1472 marker has been breached. Looks like your warning messages may be underway. We need to get Centamin down below 110p before I’ll get interested. JB
tornadotony
07 Nov 2019
Centamin not providing a way to get back in so far FX Leaders – 7 Nov 19 Bearish Gold Completes Fibonacci Retracement – Brace for Sell Signal!  - Forex... The safe-haven-metal prices consolidate in the narrow range after the reports of the possible pause in the signing of the incomplete trade.. Centamin on the weekly chart looks set for a sharp pull back. However it is currently catching a bid. If it stays this high it is offering precious little reward for 2020. The PE rates are sky high and Centamin has considerable capex costs next year. ($50M on solar megawatt farm and they need to redevelop underground for sustainability at Sukari plus something has to start in West Africa and they consume cash in the bank.
tornadotony
06 Nov 2019
Gold resistance and support Gold upper resistance line to change trend is 1492.8. Gold support lines are at 1472 and 1460 after yesterday’s fall. Old support line at 1479 would need to be breached as well for those to be tested. Bottom target for gold is currently 1433.
tornadotony
06 Nov 2019
Dead cat bounce in play Centamin other miners and gold playing dead cat bounce. The drop to continue.
Jargon_Buster
05 Nov 2019
Calling it a day Gold touched on 1480 today. Within a hairs breadth of your 1479. JB
tornadotony
05 Nov 2019
Calling it a day JB The levels to keep an eye for gold are 1479 and 1464 ish. If they go then you should get your price for Centamin. The issue with my earlier graph is that commercials are at a record short and the hedge funds are deeply long. The commercial shorts are linked to the miners who need to sell their physical gold to jewellers and the like. If the gold price is to high for that market driven by the speculators and hedge funds it will need to correct sufficiently for the commercials to close their shorts and it will only happen if the gold price falls. It also allows the normal physical market to have mined gold enter the retail markets at a level that it can actually sell to joe public. The change over can happen very quickly in the space of 3 weeks. After that we start a new multi- month bull wave but it won’t happen at all if hedge funds sit on all their long gold positions and fail to invest in anything else. The move from gold to oil is right on time and so no surprise to see Brent going up. This is all a healthy move if it continues. I will wait longer in the background to see if it materialises. Next week is critical. Tony
Jargon_Buster
05 Nov 2019
Calling it a day @tornadotony PoG sudden drop, now at 1486 down from just over 1500 earlier. Centamin follows the drop, not at 115.40p. It’s difficult to follow this market. It is dangerous times yet I feel there is still money to be made. If we dropped back to 107p I could be tempted to try to catch a couple of grand, very short term. JB
Jargon_Buster
03 Nov 2019
Calling it a day Interesting @tornadotony but way over my head unfortunately. JB
tornadotony
03 Nov 2019
Calling it a day [link] On the date task at the bottom it is possible to see historical COT positions of large speculators back to 2009. The longest extreme positioning in the past was 28 June to 27 Sept 2016. This year an extreme position was reached in early July and it has persisted for 4 months. The COT extreme positions of large speculators is now positioning itself in a phase we have not seen this side of 2009. It is possible that it can get more extreme as in the peak a few weeks back at 345,000 contracts. On Tuesday 29th it was 282,051 and of course will have rose much higher by Friday. The increase in long contract positions since May 2019 is over 325%. For this reason I have stayed out and may not return. The commercials smart money is at a record short nearly of 301,216 contracts.
tornadotony
02 Nov 2019
Calling it a day JB I believe you are right about the 105-107p area as now being very strong support for Centamin. This was created after the Q3 report. Tony
Jargon_Buster
02 Nov 2019
Calling it a day I always assumed @tornadotony that the big guys do what they do and the small investors try to surf the waves that they create. I was never a big PoG tracker. It’s much too volatile. Did you see the spike downwards when the FED cut rates. For me PoG is definitely in the background but not always the biggest influence on the like of Centamin. Centamin has surged in the past for no apparent reason, that’s when I made a bit of a killing. It’s SP does seem to have a bottom of around 80p or 90p. Currently the upside seems to be around 150p but has been much higher in the past. I’m thinking if we dropped to around 107p again it would look cautiously attractive as we seem to rise between reports. Just my take on things. PoG doesn’t really seem to be going anywhere right now, just the usual ups and downs around 1500. If I look at the chart portrait mode it looks horrendous. When I turn my phone landscape it’s much more soothing Just my random thoughts @tornadotony. JB
tornadotony
01 Nov 2019
Calling it a day I JB Imagine you own a racing greyhound and its 4/6 on to win with bookies and the tote on a big race, but comes dead last despite having a very clear run available. After detective work the next day through boyfriends of the dog kennel girls/women who care for your prized racer you find out the trainer ran the dog all day in a field and then fed it well before heading off to the race track. In addition a friend at that race says he spotted a runner sent by the trainer to one of the track side bookies to get their sizeable bet on before the race. The only persons who won that day on your dogs best chance were corrupt insiders that favoured the outside chance and so everyone else involved is of course has been cheated out of their fair chance of a gain. After the zero response on gold on a revised total of 325,000 USA job gains today, gold should have seriously tanked and yet it did nothing. The whole market stinks to high heaven. The maths, research and everything else that can be fun is being taken out of the gold miner investing market. The entire investment model is now inherently and massively unstable. If it recalibrates on Monday I may reserve some judgement. However its the small number of insiders who are now winning and may soon capitalise on everyone else they can manipulate. My gut is telling me to walk away and have nothing to do with it. Best wishes and all the above is a very personal view. Tony
Jargon_Buster
01 Nov 2019
Calling it a day Sorry to see you go. If you’ve been following my comments for a while you will know that I’m struggling with a time to exit the market for good too. The thrill of the chase currently keeps me in. I’ve been in cash since July and I’m in no hurry to jump back in but I still see profit potential in Centamin. Anyway good luck @tornadotony Maybe you’ll get drawn back in when the market has some direction. Regards JB
tornadotony
01 Nov 2019
Calling it a day I am unable to read this market and have decided its time to quit for good. I have enjoyed investing and trading stock and its time to turn into another chapter doing something else. I wish readers out their good luck with all their investments.
