tornadotony
26 Nov 2019
To JB JB Centamin falls if they announce they are building a mine in West Africa and Fresnillo goes up in 2021 when their new mine is in full production with 11M ounces of silver and 40,000 ounces of gold each year. Fresnillo then dips back a bit two years later with two new additional mines go into construction. The net effect is that Fresnillo achieves consistent future production levels. The issue for Centamin is how reliable is the underground Sukari mine at some point Centamin has to decide that declining ounces need to be replaced by a West Africa mine to keep at 520,000 ounces or so a year. Tony
Jargon_Buster
25 Nov 2019
To JB As always, good luck @tornadotony I had a look at a comparison between Fresnillo and Centamin over the last 2 years. They followed quite closely until recently, then Centamin rose but Fresnillo didn’t. They then both fell but with that built in separation. Makes me wonder if Centamin might fall to close that gap or Fresnillo might rise instead. I suppose a third option is this gap might be here to stay. JB
tornadotony
25 Nov 2019
To JB JB Well I have 6000 Tullow shares at 150p after they fell from 205p and they have managed to slip 10% further back. I added another buy in Fresnillo at 542p today and I am 10% off on that one. We did this on Centamin earlier in the year at 92p to see it hit 79p. The good news is that I am sitting in a huge cash position still and can now sit and watch how they play out. I will be staying pat until after Christmas. I am around 30% invested and I just need to be more clever from now on. regards Tony
Jargon_Buster
25 Nov 2019
To JB I feel your pain @tornadotony on Fresnillo. I’ve been in your position where a share inexplicably continues its downward trend leaving me pulling my hair out in frustration. You may have to wait on your profits this time round. Roll on 2020. Meanwhile Centamin has dropped below my 110p figure of interest. It touched 108.8p last time I looked. I’m still not tempted in. I just have a gut feeling that there is a bit of gold and gold related shares negativity in the air. I’ll keep watching and waiting to see if sentiment improves or my gut starts to feel better. JB
tornadotony
24 Nov 2019
To JB Orsotoro Correct- Except for one more small buy to complete my planned allocation. All other buying is after the bottom is in place and that may well be in 2020. My gain last year was 10% on the portfolio and this year it has been 17%. The buying end of this year all counts on what I do next year. The maxim is buy as low as you can. Tony
orsotoro
24 Nov 2019
To JB OK,. but keep on averaging down will just eat up all of your capital. It-s better to buy in at the same average price on the way up, when the uptrend has been established.
tornadotony
24 Nov 2019
To JB JB Imagine Centamin falling back to 58p and you bought and then it dropped to 55p. In some regards that is my Fresnillo entry on Friday. The pull back on Fresnillo since 2016 has been incredible. Since mid July it has dropped 39%. That is also like Centamin dropping from a 154p back down to 93p. Hence why you may have seen my temptation when I bought equivalent to 97.5p. If Fresnillo swans dive lower I may reallocate more to Fresnillo on an average down entry than buy on Centamin if that is how prices work out. The prospects for Fresnillo are a likely doubling of income by 2021. It may be worthwhile doing a two year hold and watch a 65% rise in stock value. What could happen is a polymetal like dip and then the big rise where it got to today. I have to ask myself with divis could the same thing happen on Centamin? We shall soon find out in the coming weeks. Tony
Jargon_Buster
22 Nov 2019
To JB Hi @tornadotony. I was trying to think of a reply when your last message came in. I must admit that I think my patience may be working to my advantage. It can be very difficult to sit on ones hands. It’s been about 4 months since I cashed everything in. I had thought that the shares that we are both interested in had bottomed out. I haven’t been following Fresnillo but your logic seemed sound. The drop in PoG today may not bode well for Centamin on Monday. I may get closer to below my 110p level. Not sure about Fresnillo, it may have bottomed out. I hope you get back your 5% JB
tornadotony
22 Nov 2019
To JB Hi JB Your patience is the right move. Got my position on Fresnillo only to find the support line then giving way and it closed on a ten year low with hardly any major move on metals and no RNS. If you put up the weekly chart of Centamin and polymetal, Fresnillo and HOC and compare them all on one chart you will see they were all the same up to 08:30 on Thursday. It appears some miners were then targeted afterwards and fell away more dramatically today. Good luck with your move. I have ended up with my first quarter or so stake at 5% down. Whatever happens Fresnillo and HOC have now priced in a car crash on metals prices. All the best Tony
tornadotony
22 Nov 2019
Now 24% in and all with Fresnillo My all allocation to Fresnillo is complete at target I was seeking and now 24% in and 76% off. This morning’s buys in the 580’s. This area is a historic 10 year low area. Still waiting for a Centamin or Polymetal entry.
tornadotony
21 Nov 2019
First buy and hold is on Fresnillo JB Centamin is a very different risk to Fresnillo. Fresnillo has a lot of Capex, debt and new mines coming into production and so the share price has dropped sharply. Centamin has a lot of cash, minimal Capex spend but has precious little coming on line. So one is a growth stock and the other is a value dividend play. Fresnillo is very volatile and I suspect centamin is unlikely to be so. The problem with Centamin is they won’t give a huge discount price on the stock where as Fresnillo fell 20% in the past few weeks. Fresnillo also moves in advance of Centamin. If Fresnillo keeps dropping my funds for Centamin may end up in that stock. A big issue with Centamin is will they really earn 8 cents in one quarter before profit share and deliver 155,000 ounces. The big issue for both stocks is whether China and USA sign a trade deal. If they do then you can buy Centamin as late as Christmas week at a discount to now. Fresnillo at 598 is like Centamin at 84p. It does not mean that Fresnillo will go up and it may fall further. My buying Fresnillo now is in case USA decides to add more tariffs and no deal is done as then gold and the miners rocket in price. Tony
Jargon_Buster
21 Nov 2019
First buy and hold is on Fresnillo Good luck @tornadotony My patience is getting a bit thin on Centamin but I’m trying to hold on to my original buy in price of sub 110p. I’m starting to get scared that I might miss out on the next surge upwards. Losing ones patience is a very dangerous situation. I’ve been all in cash since July and I miss the thrill of the chase but I know that I need to stay on plan. JB
tornadotony
21 Nov 2019
First buy and hold is on Fresnillo Another Fresnillo buy triggered sub 600p. Now 14% in. No centamin or Polymetal buys triggered.
tornadotony
21 Nov 2019
First buy and hold is on Fresnillo Now 10% in and all of it on Fresnillo.
tornadotony
21 Nov 2019
First buy and hold is on Fresnillo 5% invested and it has gone to Fresnillo at 606p as a buy and hold for 2020. 95% position off market on gold miners sector. If other miners offer discounts, buy and hold will start on those.
