Jargon_Buster
23 Sep 2019
Stayed out Interesting viewpoint @tornadotony. Some good analysis there. You could well be right and that’s what’s holding me back. No way am I buying in at 132p. What seems to have been happening, over the last 18 months, is that the Centamin SP gets slapped down with bad news. Then it recovers until the same bad news is reported again, then down it goes. Then repeat this. I might catch the next slap down. We’ll see. Eventually Centamin should sort themselves out. One other issue may be the anti Sisi protests. Although small and insignificant at the moment they have potential to escalate. I got hit badly during the last revolution and invested during the drop thinking it would quickly recover. It literally took years to come back after that. JB
tornadotony
23 Sep 2019
Stayed out The 6% is based on a last month average price of $1618. Not on a single day peak close price.
tornadotony
23 Sep 2019
Stayed out JB and fellow readers If you assume that gold is in a real bull market what should we expect if we ignored all the noise. The last bull market often rallied from May to end of January/February the following year. 2007 was rather manic with a 49.6% increase which had quite a severe correction and that was followed up by a 34.6% rally that recovered much of the ground lost on the correction for 2008. Other years were not as high and if we include the two exceptional years the average was around 25.5%. The current 19.5% rally has exceeded those achieved in 2006, 2009 and 2010 but we have yet to go into the autumn and early winter rally extension period. If it rose to $1900 an ounce by January/February of 2020 it will have exceeded all the previous historical gold price rise increases since 1981. So articles proposing higher levels that may arise in the press are probably speculative garbage. If the rally was to follow the mean of the previous bull rally, the maximum gold price target would be near $1650 in February 2020 where it would then have a typical 3 month correction. To get to $1650 an ounce, the gold price in my opinion needs to retreat at least $60 per ounce and possibly $100 per ounce and ideally it should occur about now until mid October. Such a proper pull back then fuels the next part of the extension rally by around $200 per ounce. This helps the arrival of $1650 per ounce next year. The only way to skip the pull back is that a serious crisis was to arrive that has very long term consequences like a near collapse of the financial system. I am not sure the catalysts are in play to fuel the up-leg with relatively minor consolidations that we are seeing and I think we might have a recession but not a bad one. Overall the summer run moved from 0 to 19.5% and gold miner stock prices rose 75%. The next up lift of 6% in my opinion only gives 21% price rises for miners at best. The most profitable return has already occurred. An entry of 132p for Centamin and exit at 159p may be worth a punt for some investors. However if it turns out that 2019 is similar to 2006, 2009 and 2010 than the current rally would retreat 6% and the Centamin gold miner price drop down is also around 21% and the 132p Centamin entry falls to 109p. What kind of bull market we are now in and how long it runs for is uncertain. I therefore see it as a coin toss until we get a proper pull back to enjoy the next rally. All the best Tony
Jargon_Buster
23 Sep 2019
Stayed out Still off market too. Sometimes Centamin follows the gold market but sometimes it goes off and does its own thing. So I don’t always pay too much attention to PoG. I can’t find out when they next report. When that comes out we may be better informed. Even though it’s likely to just reaffirm what we already know no doubt we’ll drop again. Maybe shortly after that happens we may get another buying opportunity. I still feel that buying in now may be too much of a risk. I’m in no hurry to lose this years gains. JB
tornadotony
23 Sep 2019
Stayed out Still off market. Reasons- Physical buying of gold outside of the banking sector is collapsing in demand. The jewellery sector getting hit. Likely to see increases in gold recycling market as economic slow down spreads. Gold will go up again but the market currently is being held up by a small number of large buyers. It does not feel like a bull market surge. All the above a personal opinion.
tornadotony
18 Sep 2019
FED cuts rates again JB It may well be the last one and hence why gold is getting an overdue correction. Centamin laid a trap today and I am hoping we can see a major breakaway gap down tomorrow. The discount rate on physical gold buying within India hit $51 an ounce a few days ago, a figure not seen since the last gold peak. Physical buying of gold for jewellery is getting hit very hard and the buyers are calling for a price retreat to around 1430-1460. Paper gold which is not honoured by contract deadlines has little value to gold miners. The latest round of contracts expire on Friday and my gut says they will ditch their gold buy orders. Gold may hold 1490 for now but the chances of any kind of rally are retreating fast with a big drop when 1479 goes. I expect the USD to go higher on what it is now. Hold on to dollars if they are in the draw somewhere. All the best Tony
Jargon_Buster
18 Sep 2019
FED cuts rates again JUST IN: The Federal Reserve cuts interest rates for the second time in two months in an attempt to stimulate economic growth and head off a potential downturn. JB
Jargon_Buster
18 Sep 2019
Stayed out Ditto @tornadotony I’m naturally more cautious than you are but I agree with your sentiment, I prefer to lose profits rather than capital as things stand now. It did seem that perhaps the SP had stabilised but I fear it’s lolling us into a false sense of security before another plunge. Whatever I do I would not want to be holding Centamin when the next report comes out. JB
tornadotony
18 Sep 2019
Stayed out Had the chance to go in this morning but decided to stay out for the remainder of the month. Gold likely to rally on FED hike. I then wonder what happens next. All the gold miner AISCs will be higher around $30 on higher oil costs per ounce produced. The idea of lower third quarter production is disturbing and the company are uncomfortable providing reasons why. I am unable to look at the screen all the time with a few other things to sort out. I would rather miss the bus on a profit than be caught in a losing position that drags me in for months. Centamin has some red flags and its an expensive PE rated share.
Jargon_Buster
16 Sep 2019
Stayed out I don’t think that Centamin is on anyones thoughts bar us investors, but point taken. Saudi is of a different magnitude. I’m sure the drones used weren’t cheap but had maximum effect in this case. It does show how much volatility the news cycle can inflict upon shares. Although volatility can also generate investment opportunities. Especially when others overreact. JB
tornadotony
16 Sep 2019
Stayed out JB Every time we have an oil supply disruption of significance it gives a very temporary precious metals spike that falls away very quickly that is either on the same day or within a week. I have decided to wait until October regarding Centamin. Blackrock are selling Centamin shares quite heavily and that is strong indicator in my book for the stock to fall much further. I dread to think of a long range drone attack on the Centamin mine to hurt Egypt’s economy. Tony
Jargon_Buster
16 Sep 2019
Stayed out Interesting times. Things can change very quickly these days. We have a small rise today, not totally unexpected given the recent large drops. A little bit premature to be jumping in, much too risky. JB
tornadotony
16 Sep 2019
Stayed out Centamin uses a huge amount of diesel every day.
Jargon_Buster
14 Sep 2019
Closed lower in Toronto I was planning on waiting until Centamin SP stabilises. I agree that anything around 100p will be tempting. We will have to see how low it goes. We usually over shoot on the way up and on the way down. Anything under 100p and I’ll feel rather happy with strategy. As usual my feelings change over time. We could well hit a low and just stay there for a month or so. Anyway things are looking pretty good for a second go at Centamin. JB
tornadotony
14 Sep 2019
Closed lower in Toronto Forgot to add, expect Saudi Arabia to sell a shed load of gold on Monday to repair their oil facilities.
