Jargon_Buster
01 Oct 2019
Missed the boat on this move I haven’t been watching. What happened? JB
tornadotony
01 Oct 2019
Missed the boat on this move Everything changes on one piece of data. None of my buy orders achieved today. If the chance to get in is run that tight than only insiders have a chance to profit.
Jargon_Buster
01 Oct 2019
Bought a small position back Thanks for the analysis @tornadotony Taking onboard what you’ve said I think I might be aiming for the end of October for a serious look at investing again. People have short memories, if production doesn’t match the previous quarters, which is likely, we should get a knee jerk reaction downwards. Should we drop below 120p, and assuming the outlook matches your hopes, then we might all have another bite of the cherry. Like the weather, predicting ahead 4 weeks seldom works out. We’ll have to wait and see where we are closer to that time. It’s frustrating sitting on ones hands but from past experience if you jump in too early it can be disastrous. Patience will win out I believe. JB
tornadotony
01 Oct 2019
Bought a small position back Hi JB The next report is 23 October. I suspect the production is around 112,000 ounces which is below Q2 and Q1. The financial data with it is going to be a lot stronger. A sales price of $1464 spot supports 127p on Centamin. The forward news is critical. If they stay on 490,000 ounces and maintain AISC forecast and have a good handle on costs in 2020 then Centamin should stay in the high 120’s if gold stays around on 1465 as the average sell price in Q4. The fact of the matter is that Asian markets experienced inflation and can not expect the old gold price of $1300 per ounce. Otherwise what is the point of owning gold. Buyer support should appear at this level and become stronger as gold drops back to pick up new physical supply. I expect a rebound at some point back above $1500 but can not be sure exactly when. For that reason I will do my usual of buying slowly on the drop in the miners as trying to get exact bottoms is virtually impossible to do and if achieved is pure luck. Tony Still 10% in
Jargon_Buster
30 Sep 2019
Bought a small position back @tornadotony Todays PoG drop is interesting. Perhaps I’ll wait and see how close it gets to your 1445 area. Seems like you have been calling this one quite well Tony. I’ll be watching both PoG and Centamins SP. I don’t think we are quite there yet but it’s getting interesting. Any idea when the next production release comes out Tony? JB
tornadotony
30 Sep 2019
Bought a small position back Despite the counter rally on the dip last Friday, the defence caved in on precious metals. It does give a chance to boost physical buying for the rest of this week. Most of the drop is now in with spot price likely to find support in the 1445 area. This completely removes the discount that was heavily applied in some of the eastern physical markets. Centamin was no change on the day. Fresnillo got quite a beating. I have not bought anything today and will see how this pans out. Gold is now a down month for September. The fundamentals driving investor demand have not changed but the physical jewellery sector needed this correction and a lot of overbought signals have been dropped. All the best Tony
tornadotony
27 Sep 2019
Bought a small position back Earlier in the month I re-entered a buy around 134p and sold it at 136p the day after to create a short. This afternoon I bought half of it back and effectively it was like closing a short from 136p. Although it counts as a profit, I now need to build up the Centamin position to average down the high entry point. This strategy worked extremely well last year when I made a very good profit. Overall 10% in and 90% off. The jury is out if what we have at present is the bottom on gold or that I end up buying the other 90% at a much lower price. I am of the view that the bottom for Centamin is probably above 108p and so the risk of a small slice in is worth the risk versus 2020 upside.
tornadotony
27 Sep 2019
Centamin support line breached Hi JB Gold is now back filling a gap possibly to 1511 so we could see Centamin climb back above its 126.4 support line. The real test is next week. Gold likely to hold for the weekend as USA came to the rescue once again. If the current support line holds and up trend resumes, the best price to get would be where Centamin is now. Tony
Jargon_Buster
27 Sep 2019
Centamin support line breached @tornadotony 109p sounds tempting. JB
tornadotony
27 Sep 2019
Centamin support line breached Back up support lines are at 117p and 109p if the 123.8 line now fails to hold.
tornadotony
27 Sep 2019
Centamin support line breached 126.4p now breached. Second support line is 123.8p. Fresnillo holding 709 second support line probably until USA market open.
tornadotony
27 Sep 2019
Gold on the support line of 1503.41 Three support lines now breached. Gold now on amber alert with one support line remaining. This could be a black Friday for gold.
tornadotony
26 Sep 2019
Gold on the support line of 1503.41 Lower high on gold was formed today and the critical battle is now if gold support lines hold. The second support line is at 1500.35. The third support line is at 1498.55. The fourth and most critical support line is at 1483.06. The 1503.4 line has been breached and re-taken back. It is gradually losing strength to hold. The reality is that major jewellery markets in China and India are vastly down in what is usually a key buying season. Other national markets that have held up or improved marginally are not covering the huge drop. Central bank buying has held up the gold market until now on the investment side. If the support lines break we have the awaited correction the market needs to take place. This would enable the bull phase to continue from a lower base and challenge $1560 in early January from a position of buyer strength.
frog_in_a_tree
24 Sep 2019
Pound sterling on a rally It looks like the markets have interpreted the Supreme Court decision as making a no deal Brexit less likely. Still a lot of the game left to play. Frog in a tree
tornadotony
24 Sep 2019
Pound sterling on a rally Centamin shares have lost one of their tale winds as sterling rallies against USD, euro and nearly everything else. One of the reasons to hold Centamin and other British listed companies was a hedge against currency devaluation. It now looks as if the pound may move above the 1.25 mark against USD and 1.15 euro last in play in May 2019 could be back. Likely to hit CEY valuation by around 3p.
