tornadotony
08 Oct 2019
Looks like a down day for precious metals Looks like I have it completely wrong as USA and India markets are now gapped out by London gold market move up. I am out on the whipsaw move. My intervention trades booked £550 net profit. Time to now take a few months out.
tornadotony
08 Oct 2019
Looks like a down day for precious metals The rise in gold miners and precious metals is temporary. Gaps are closing in the metals charts and then a rather big drop is now more than likely. The first drop on futures for gold should be to around 1495. I believe it goes down further to 1483 by close of play in London. So far I am played off the market but I am quite happy with the situation. The charts are now very bearish. The response from China overnight was incredibly weak and that sends a powerful signal where the whole precious metals cycle is going and believe it is a big drop down. The antics of miners doing a bull trap charge was on a small volumes. We shall see in the coming hours if I am right on this.
tornadotony
08 Oct 2019
Looks like a down day for precious metals I would expect Centamin to retreat. I have got off the market. If it goes up and I am wrong I now stay off.
Jargon_Buster
07 Oct 2019
Dangerous times Thanks @tornadotony for the explanation. I never got into shorting and I don’t really want to learn new tricks when I have a strategy that seems to work for me. Sounds like your strategy is paying dividends, no pun intended , long may it continue. JB
tornadotony
07 Oct 2019
Dangerous times Hi JB It is an ability to have a different mind set in trading stock as the price falls instead of just buying and holding. If I managed to sell at the closing price of 115.6p and I stayed off Centamin without buying it back today my entire gain on 7 trades is just under £500. As a resulting of holding on to it, I hold the gain from 134p down to 111p as I have been shorting my position (£2,300 gain). I have done this as the holding is small and if I got stuck for whatever reason I can average the position down by either 8 to 1 or 9 to 1 wherever the best entry is likely to be ( executing your plan). I am therefore very relaxed whatever happens. I have something to sell when it goes up and I have something to sell if it goes down but I need to buy it back at a much lower price when its falling and I need to do it on the same day. So up days I have my long views and down days act as a shorter and gain on the drop. Lately Centamin likes to do both and so I have done some useful scalping. Expecting gold to nose dive down and China to push it back up by London open. China markets are open tomorrow and you may recall they left the market at a lower level and need to catch up. All the best Tony
Jargon_Buster
07 Oct 2019
Dangerous times I couldn’t do what you do @tornadotony I’d be sure to get stressed and caught out. Is skimming off a penny or two profit really worth the risk? JB
tornadotony
07 Oct 2019
Dangerous times Back in at 115.20 and we now close at 116p.
tornadotony
07 Oct 2019
Dangerous times Out on 115.85 and perhaps now it will finally tank.
tornadotony
07 Oct 2019
Dangerous times Rebought at 115.05 appears to have a support line.
tornadotony
07 Oct 2019
Dangerous times Gold price retreating. I am looking for a $7 fall in the chart. It should shave off 1.5-2p on previous Centamin close.
Jargon_Buster
07 Oct 2019
Dangerous times To unstable for my liking and not predictably so. I would expect some recovery up until the 23rd, then it could plummet again. That would be enough for me to get interested, but not immediately so. I’d wait to see if it stabilised first. JB
tornadotony
07 Oct 2019
Dangerous times Sold off at 116.57. Centamin is over valued at this level. If the stock shows 112 -113p, I could be tempted back in.
tornadotony
05 Oct 2019
Dangerous times The correction on Centamin was 10p on each time news was given about production. The remaining 19p drop was the move on gold prices from 1560 down to 1500. It may well have price in the next drop to 1460. A gold price of 1360-1380 would deliver a 90p target or a point very near to it as the outlook would not be on current earnings but a fear of what future earnings could then be. I have decided to stay with a 10% core as the miners move ahead of gold. The moves when they happen could be very quick.
Jargon_Buster
04 Oct 2019
Dangerous times Yes Tony, We should not lose sight that this is still a profitable company with money in the bank. There is some possibility that we may see a rise as we approach the 23rd but my sights are still set on perhaps dipping my toes in the water after that date. I might have been a bit flippant suggesting 90p but time will tell, I wouldn’t rule it out. Of course I still have the issue that since my portfolio has increased in size my exposure becomes that much greater. I’ll work on that. Maybe I’ll just play with 50%. JB
tornadotony
04 Oct 2019
Dangerous times Hi JB Do bear in mind the earnings will be around 2 cents after profit share for Q3 and it could be 3 cents in Q4. That is 10 cents before profit share. If gold stays above 1420 for the remainder of 2019, it would be unlikely to get as low as 90p. The 3 cents is based upon 130,000 ounces in Q4 with a major miss on the annual forecast. A lot of damage has now been priced in. Tony
