indolent
29 Jul 2015
To Spike or other fundies Would twenty five million dollars be enough for a year or two's breathing space if raised in an RI? Some of it to be used for debt the rest working capital. The table below may get twisted when I press the submit button so the parametres are:* 241 million shares currently in issue or thereabouts. Is that roughly correct?* Seventeen new shares for each share held* The discounted price in my assumption is 0.4p for each share * I'm not sure if any II would underwrite on these terms but it is loosely based on what I watched pan out at Petropavlovsk. They could only raise just enough to stay on an even keel but it might just have worked. The big problem for PIs was the affordability of following their rights. 241,000,000 # shares in iss* ue now? 17 4,097,000,000 Seventeen new shares for each existing one 0.4 1,638,800,000 Pennies raised if a discounted price of 0.4 p £16,388,000 The resulting value in pounds 1.52 $24,909,760 In US Dollars @ an exchange rate shown in the left column
indolent
28 Jul 2015
forwardloop, henrylegg, spike forwardloop, Agree re Pro's articles except I still think they should have mentioned the covenants in the penultimate effort. Agreed too with brokers. A heavy weight like the Squid can really get a share or commodity going, up or down thus messing with the heads of us Mu p p e t s. henrylegg,Two thirds of the way down this page in my post of May 15 is an extract of the company's wording and link to the Caza document I got it from. spike,When Petropavlovsk did a rights issue at 5p it seemed almost ridiculous partly as the share price had been £13.50 four years prior but management ended up using a dilution ratio of 15.7 to 1. The two founders did underwrite a chunk of it though. Personally I don't pine for a suspended share in my trading account so will rather see what management come up with. I wonder if the Toronto exchange will let them do that 60:1 consolidation. Indy
spike501
28 Jul 2015
Re: debt covenant GIven Caza market cap is now in the single figure millions, I-d be sceptical whether Caza can even raise enough in a placing to setlle any convenants, I think they will struggle to raise enough to simply close the gap in working capital.Sadly, with oil having legged down again I think Caza may well be finished.
nat81
28 Jul 2015
Re: debt covenant its here:[link] JLP and RMP are moving up now. safer place than CAZA at the moment
henrylegg
28 Jul 2015
Re: debt covenant can you direct me to info on this beaching of the debt covenant, as I am unable to find any.
peytonstorm
27 Jul 2015
Their are only a few ways we go higher and quickly. We need to sell the company! Management really should have sold months ago. Another way would be to report good earnings and then announce they will only do 15/1 reverse split. Shareholders HATE r/s, but to cut it back to 10/1 or 15/1 will give this a nice pop. Then they can do a capital raise at a better price. If poo takes another dive and then we do 60/1 and then a cap raise, we are toast. Thats why we are falling! Lack of faith from management. Building shareholder value!! Right
nat81
27 Jul 2015
debt covenant caza already breached debt covenant, hence why sp so low. will there any placing to cover that? hope not.at the moment, shares with cash are king, see JLP and RMP. both high sentiment and good cash reserve
forwardloop
27 Jul 2015
Re: info To: forwardloop Yes I am just a (suffering) PI like any other. I trawl some sites daily & post what i think might be of interest.I don't bother with those Proactive articles that merely copy what the RNS said.Brokers - take them with more than a pinch of salt - but they do regularly & noticeably move daily markets (ironically on larger FTSE 350 co eg when a broker view changes eg from hold to buy.) when their note is often the reason for the change in price (Sometimes the note follows an event of course)The bizarre one is that Numis continually (for months & months) have a 20p tgt (it was 25p) for IFL Int Ferro metals when the price is just 2p. The basis that it is quoted at least weekly on the brokers list that I use suggests they continue to push the position. I wonder why & if eventually they will be justified? FWD
indolent
25 Jul 2015
FT Commodities VId: oil at end [link]
indolent
23 Jul 2015
Re: info To: forwardloop forwardloop,Are you just another PI helping others out by posting 'articles' such as those from Proactive and brokers notes such as those rather optimistic ones posted to the Lonmin BB month after month after month?Your penultimate posting here was after Caza publically published regarding the covenants. I suspect little or even nothing to do with the omission but the share price fell about forty percent between the two postings. Since it has fallen another quarter penny. To anyone independent but in to the fundamentals: has the fall finally gone too far? I realise that moves to consolidate could have been preparation for a fund raising but 2p feels so very low. If a highly dilutive RI or similar is in the offing then perhaps my gut is way out again. Indy
forwardloop
21 Jul 2015
info [link] Oil & Gas (LON:CAZA) is a geographically focused specialised production play.In this case the focus is on thousands of acres in the long-established Permian Basin which stretch across New Mexico and into Texas. The wells drilled on the acreage target the liquids-rich Bone Spring/wolfram play. This is not an unconventional play using fracture stimulation (fracking) to extract gas or oil from shale rocks, although there is often horizontal drilling because the gas and liquids can be tightly held.The Bone Spring horizon or horizons (and there are several of them) are conventionally drilled and prolific because of what is known as a “stacked” operation where more than one zone can be targeted in a single drill and produce a stunning uplift in production, reserves and revenues.Caza’s wells deliver high initial production (IP) rates -– Caza is reckoned to be always near the top of its class in its region even beating much bigger companies with their IPs.A typical IP can be over 1000 barrels of oil a day (bopd) and but then rapidly decline to 500 bopd or even less within a year.The name of the game, therefore, is to keep the wells coming on stream to sustain rising production. Caza has done that because by the end of the first quarter 2015 the company, with varying levels of percentage interest in each well, had completed 27 successful drills back-to-back over the past two years.It has been profitable production. In the third quarter 2014, netbacks to the company were US$51.43 a barrel when the oil price was just over US$90 a barrel.But when the oil price began to collapse, the financials started to look rather different.In the first quarter 2015, production from oil and natural gas liquids (NGLs) from the properties Caza is involved in increased by 65% as net volumes increased by 34% to 917 barrels of oil equivalent a day (boepd).The company’s oil and NGL production increased to 89% of output compared to 73% in 2014. However, sales dropped by 27% from US$3.4mln in the three months from US$4.6mln in the same period in 2014. Average oil prices received by Caza decreased by 56%, to US$40.60 a barrel, during the three month period.The operating netback decreased to US$21.02 a barrel in the three months compared to US$57.76 a barrel in the comparable period in 2014. At the end of March Caza had US$6mln in the bank.Commenting on the first quarter 2015 figures released in May, Michael Ford, Caza’s chief executive officer (CEO), said the company had decided to cut back on most new production, but attempted to put a brave face on the move.He said: “While we have taken the prudent decision to cut back on capital expenditure during the time of low oil prices, many of the company’s Bone Spring properties could deliver acceptable rates of return at current price levels, and we expect to drill one Bone Spring obligation well this year and possibly several development wells later into the year assuming prices continue to rise or maintain the current improved levels. “Ashley Kelly’s take on the Caza situation is that the company, “has gone into a kind of limbo,” he said.Kelly is the oil and gas analyst at the company’s house broker Cenkos. He told Proactive Investors: “The company is trying to save money until prices improve. This might be a good idea as prices are improving. But it is unlikely that production will increase greatly with so little drilling.”But his most recent note on Caza was largely positive. It said: “With current cash of US$6mln, we believe that the company is able to meet all short term commitments. The current price is underpinned by production, and near term development assets (less net debt), which we value at 11p a share.”Like a lot of smal
peytonstorm
14 Jul 2015
Its clear what the market thinks of this reverse split. The price has been dropping since the announcement of the proxy vote. I would rather see them sell some acreage first, then a much smaller reverse split. 20/1 at most.
indolent
08 Jul 2015
Are management for real? Humble Pie charlieeee,You right there. The survivors in the hot money brigade are just too cunning. When forwardloop dropped that article here that 'forgot' to mention the covenants' caveat the share price was virtually 4p.As for China what a mess and talk about amateur half hour manipulation what with the consortium of brokers, meddling with market mechanisms and all the rest. [link] article above is about China and oil and is obviously potentially way beyond Caza. Did the Toronto exchange give them the go-ahead for the consolidation and what do you reckon the dilution via funding will be as I can't see what other choice there is now? (Bloxdy AIM.) But it sounds like you doubt enough money could be raised to appease Apollo for long enough. Pity, their overhauled strategy was audacious enough to deserve being a winner. Just too much debt at exactly the wrong time. IndyPS: iron ore and coal down so hard today it broke the new 8% limits.
charlieeee
08 Jul 2015
Re: Are management for real? 5Iron Well. Indy, your 2.5p breached, but carnage out there and Iran joining the supply side could just be the last nail in the coffin?The big question is Apollo. Rock and a hard place for them. Will they cut some slack to salvage something from their loan or pull an "ECB" stunt and demand the impossible?A world going pear-shaped at the moment, with China and the EU in trouble, both sides of the same face, to some extent.C
whitelabel
03 Jul 2015
Re: Under 3p Braver man than me, Caza, along with a lot of other minor oilies, are in serious trouble here.
