uniformtango
08 Sep 2015
Caza testing 2p... ...as if on cue...Steve
uniformtango
08 Sep 2015
Re: A view Hi IndyGreat to be able to review your wise postings below. I've survived the "blood on the streets" of recent times, by a little judgement and a lot of luck!I trust you are ok yourself.It is almost as if Caza acts as a barometer for oil price movements; it creeps up when there is some positivity in the air, and plunges when there isn't! Of course, I realise its a lot more complex than that, but the share price movement of this fascinating little minor oilie seems to act as a marker. Time will, of course, tell. Caza may have its day, perhaps in the medium term future.I'd rather nor see Caza down at a penny, but if I do, I shall think of you and smile!Seriously good to hear from you again.Steve (the elder)
indolent
03 Sep 2015
Re: A view Interesting post Uni and at 1p I might tick a post with a BUY label on. I might even go as far as putting tiny bit of money on the Caza gee gee even though the spread might gobble up any chance of profit. I perceive management more as brave, decisive, responsive and on at least one very special occasion proactive. You perceive prudent, fair enough. I hope the plunge in oil prices hasn't done much permanent damage to you. I suspect you are set up well to ride most of it. What a bounce on oil the other day, adult nappy time for oil shorters.
mr reliable
02 Sep 2015
Re: A view I have dipped my feet in the water 50000 shares. Management have been prudent and have probably saved the company. My investment is a punt with more potential to the upside. The overall trend for oil seems to,be to the upside, let's see how this pans out.
uniformtango
01 Sep 2015
A view First of all, a long overdue hello to my friend, Indy, AKA Steve the younger.I've been out of Caza, but watching closely from the sidelines, as I find it strangely compelling, as do many others. I've not commented, as I've had nothing to add to all that Indolent, Charleee and others have stated, usually following careful thought and assessment.Yes, we have the perennial debt problem, cash burn realities, oil price crash, oil overproduction, East versus West politics, in addition to Eurozone worries, and now Chinese negative factors.Nevertheless, the one thing that really impressed me, was the manner in which Ford and the board took the brave step of going defensive and entering virtual lockdown. It is true that, had they failed to do so, the SP may well have done exactly what it did, although perhaps at a later date. It may have been worse!At least they were proactive, and this demonstrates a certain prudence.There is little doubt in my mind that, should the price of oil really recover, despite all the negative forces I've alluded to, in addition to many more that I haven't, Caza, at these levels, has got to be ideally positioned to lead a minor oilies style recovery. It must, surely, be at least a punt for the future. As always, WTFDIK, but good luck, everyone.Steve
grewber
12 Aug 2015
2nd Quarter results due in the next week or so. Should make interesting reading.
spike501
10 Aug 2015
Re: To Spike or other fundies Toby - Caza are paying around $1.3million per quarter on the Apollo debt, there are no special payments in September. September is when Apollo review the covenants and if Caza are still in breach they will decide what, if any, action to take.
tobytoby
07 Aug 2015
Re: To Spike or other fundies Hello Spike501, having a good grasp on this Company' current financial fix, do you (anyone) have any idea of how much the interest payment due in September might be?Is it around $4 million due?
forwardloop
06 Aug 2015
interesting article [link]
indolent
31 Jul 2015
Re: To Spike or other fundies I forgot to say that with the money raised, in addition to interest payments up front, Caza would probably be required to pay down some of the principle. Unless it is to fully or partly pay them off I cannot see Apollo risking more money or allowing any more debt in to the business if as you say they hold the cards. Mind those cards represents a fair dent to their bank balance. Caza's management got not just strategic but also creative leading in to the change in strategy so lets hope they can find a way. Failing that Apollo might want to have a go at the arranged marriage business. PS: If funding that could be considered substantial in the current circumstance is done but then even more debt is still needed to buy less than about eighteen months in breathing space then I would concede that this is a probably a dead duck. Clearly even the generally gullible PI community ) aren't keen to throw more money at this one. PPS: With regards to gullible I include my past self.
hitman1
31 Jul 2015
1.5p.. never thought I see this price .. not holding. but not tempted either. mistake to borrow to drill..
spike501
30 Jul 2015
Re: To Spike or other fundies The notes are senior secured and have first charge on all Caza's properties - any asset sales must be used first to prepay notes and if Caza breach covenants then Apollo can insist a portion of cash flow is used to repay the notes - Caza have breached the covenants but it has been waived until end of September.It's difficult to know what they will do but Apollo hold all the cards right now.I still can't see the attraction of a share issue - the company remains significantly cash flow negative and it's difficult to see value of the property in the current climate beyond the debt. It would be a punt on oil price recovery but even if this occurs Caza still need millions more to develop the properties.
indolent
30 Jul 2015
Re: To Spike or other fundies You may or may not excuse my ignorance but are the $45 million (or whatever the amount is) in loan funds to date given over by Apollo somehow linked or dependent on the assets/fields rather than the company, Caza? If not then it should largely come down to whether they think they are throwing good money after bad or not due to their take on how the cash flows might pan out. Even if that is the situation how the heck they might figure that out I really don't know but they would take a position. I had wondered if out of, say, twenty five million dollars raised a years' interests payments could be made in advance say. A wee bit simplistic no doubt. A lot depends on how much at risk the money they have loaned so far is. I sense that I misunderstand that bit. As for the LSE board I recently posted once or twice there and what I said on one occasion upset someone who hadn't used his sign-in for years unless he has more than one. From the point of view of someone genuine on a BB it is almost impossible to know what another's agenda is. That said, I have mostly found this to be a decent board especially when it comes to interaction with the few really in to the fundamentals.
spike501
30 Jul 2015
Re: To Spike or other fundies Yes you're right it's double, I didn't convert from dollars. I see no incentive for Apollo to restructure here - the cash flow from production would cover interest and value of acreage probably covers principal. It's not like bond holders having to take possession of a huge offshore production platform in Nigeria or Gold mine in Russia and the legal headaches entailed, these are mostly non-operated interests that pump with limited involvement. It was in the bond holders interests of Afren and Petropolavsk to keep them going concerns - with shareholders massively diluted - but for Caza I just see the company is an unnecessary overhead.Glad my posts have been helpful - this board is generally very open. I got a fair bit of abuse over at LSE although people are waking up and smelling the coffee.It's a shame - like the company, like the management, liked the strategy and fortunately made good money.
spike501
30 Jul 2015
Re: To Spike or other fundies $25million probably would be enough but I can't see anyway it would happen.Petropavlovsk was a liquidity issue that was resolved by restructuring all round - it was in bondholders and shareholders interest as the business was still a going concern even with the lower gold prices.I don't see Caza as the same - the strategy has failed. Where is the incentive for Apollo to restructure and for shareholders to pour in 3 times the market cap - the business still won't be generating enough cash and there is no scale there - its throwing good money after bad.
