loopin
12 Feb 2015
[link] mentioned at 7:38 worth listening to the whole thing
uniformtango
12 Feb 2015
Bouncing around... Caza is now, IMHO, a screaming "buy" at these levels, as oil prices start to recover, and The Saudis and Americans start to show their strategies; but more importantly, their hands! At the moment, Caza is bouncing like a ping pong ball, between 5p and 7p. For no reason whatsoever, or on the streakiest slither of decent news, this oversold little oilie is going to fly northward, Caza has form on this occurring, it has a history of this kind of behaviour. When it happens, it goes fast, and shares become difficult to obtain for a fair price. This is a share where you need to stay ahead of the game. But WTFDIK!Steve
indolent
10 Feb 2015
Re: To Uni Steve - O/T Hello Uni,I thought they were still loss making but I'll leave the fundamentalist here to argue that if they want to as there's always room for assumptions around current and near-term data inputs. Management do seem nimble and practical these days and the share price seems to like less angst around the oil price or the realisation cash flows will probably be OK unless oil stays lower long than most are expecting. [link] these CNN articles are general in nature and beyond 2015 the IEA may well be too conservative.)I won't respond to a reply after this for a while as we are dominating the board which is my fault. Go well. IndyPS: Someone mentioned Max Petroleum in passing in which a friend holds a modest amount. I'll not research it, Just AIM being AIM.
uniformtango
09 Feb 2015
Re: To Uni Steve - O/T Morning IndyThis share being Caza, I long since stopped trying for any kind of scientific approach. I remain vaguely aware of fundamentals, facts, figures and news flow, but Caza bucks expected trends so often now, that one may as well stick a tail on a donkey! Management appear logical, sensible and relatively sanguine, as judged by the fact that they've pulled back on prospecting, pro tem, even though they are still making a profit at $50 US. This may put a bit of a brake upon SP rises in the immediate future, but at least, it demonstrates a cogent and logical strategy. That's got to be a decent predictor for the future of this eclectic and compelling little junior oilie. I totally concur that the actions of the Saudi's is key, if Caza is going upwards and onwards.Steve
indolent
09 Feb 2015
Re: To Uni Steve - O/T Uni,Thank you for your friendly words but it was actually this bit I was referring to: "Do you run the numbers or go with trying to figure out herd movements more? You never answer me when I ask so I keep asking." I wondered if you had gone as far as some others here and constructed an Excel Workbook for Caza building in such instruments as hedging. I believe that most of the money shifted around here is done by the smart money and they would have built all of that in. (When the excitement kicks in then the AIM hot money brigade joins in and can have a fair impact from what I can tell, for brief stints.)The buy / sell lable thing is a personal choice and if you have reason for believing the share price will go one way or another then fair enough, slap them on but then why not bet the same way. Regarding oil, an analyst out here that I follow has re-opened a short on oil. Very much in line with a CNN article last week quoting Citi he also believes the falls are not done with yet.[link] me it seems to be up to the Saudi's. At some point they'll do their bit to remove the oversupply and no one knows when. They may not know when they'll do it come to that. If Caza's cash flow is strong enough for six more months of sub $60 oil (or whatever price they get these days) then you might be right about that buy. Either way I still guess that management will clarify which funding sources they still have access too sooner than later. If SEDA is better suited for the short term working capital funding and Apollo for the longer term drill funding then maybe management will supplement them. Go well, Indy
uniformtango
06 Feb 2015
Re: To Uni Steve My dear Indy (Steve the younger)I never, never deliberately ignore your postings, although indolence on my part may cay cause me to miss the odd one! They're always carefully constructed, and well considered.In answer to your question, historically, I used to use the "buysellhold" tags when I started, as others did! I'd assumed you didn't use them out of indolence, but clearly it is a carefully considered omission! Being serious for a moment, their use is merely an expression of my "gut feel" rather than a distillate of all the available physical information. Obviously, one's gut is related to their brain, so it does carry some credence. I shall stop using them from hereon in, as a tribute to our friendship! 'No view' will be the order of the day!Uni (Steve the elder)
indolent
06 Feb 2015
Re: Cheapest oily on the market Uni,I'll reply now as last night there was a piece on China 24 about the impact on alternative / green energy that might still be getting broadcast. According to them it depends on where and for China, the States and others the low oil price hasn't and won't impact much. Developing that idea a bit, if the Saudi's allow the oil price to gradually rise from here then they'll perhaps make major explorers more cautious for a year or two but they won't have achieved much else as far as I can tell in that a material representation of the present crop of small cap explorer / producers won't have to be furloughed for a few years. Maybe the Yanks would have kicked up a stink prior to that point anyway assuming they haven't already behind closed doors. I really don't know how to respond to your Caza opinion as out here I just don't have the bandwidth to do the necessary research. It's simply too slow and frustrating to watch presentations and the like so I'm always a bit behind the curve with some of the micro developments unless others shout them from the roof tops. Hence my goading / question in the post you ignored. Anyway, if you're right about oils trajectory then the dogs should be jumping gleefully through hops of fire as their prices rise, well those (like Caza) that our producers too. Over and out for a while save to say watch Lonmin if it gets though 190 convincingly. IndyPS: The tongue in cheek comment I referred to was yours.
uniformtango
06 Feb 2015
Re: Cheapest oily on the market Hi IndyAlways a pleasure to read your comments, tongue in cheek, or not! You're spot on, when you say that the only certainty for oil price, is the chronic uncertainty! I sense that they will nudge up sooner, rather than later, for the Saudis generally outflank the Americans! Curiously, I believe that the fall in Brent, and others, in the absence of the usual resultant increasing hydrocarbon consumption, tells me that oil will last considerably longer than previously thought, thus delaying "green" technologies, perhaps for decades to come.Finally, if a PI, (not you, of course), happened to be looking for a cheap minor oilie, pro tem, they could do far worse than Caza, who have not only declared that they will tone back their multi layered prospecting until oil prices rise, but they have also made clear they COULD and do make a profit, even at these low prices! I think the board have been extremely prudent and brave. Speak soon, and best wishes.Uni (Steve the elder)
indolent
05 Feb 2015
Re: Cheapest oily on the market Hello Uni,You too re the 'well' bit. "A good, responsible (and hedged) posting!"Tongue in cheek I realise but I don't know of any analysts or commentators who predicted a fall in oil below $60. Any of them foresee sub $75 for months rather than weeks? My point being that because the world doesn't have a clue how long oil will stay low (which to me is anything below $80) then neither does anyone have much of a clue about which of the small and even medium cap oilies will survive. If oil prices head back down again and oilies react strongly then I think it will be time for me to buy in to one of the majors for the first time in years. Probably BP warts n' all.I hope exciting companies like Caza survive but there's no certainty around that, not if oil stays low for another six months or more which it might. Sure, Saudi will bounce oil when they're good and ready but no ones been good at trying to double guess them so far as far as I know. IndyPS: If one of the small cap oilies fell, say, 25% below recent lows then like a lot of people I might not be able to resist a punt. Hopefully a very short term one!
forwardloop
02 Feb 2015
Video link Related Video on right hand side[link] of commentaryCaza (main item ) - Afren - Bahamas pet
uniformtango
02 Feb 2015
Re: Cheapest oily on the market Hi IndyHope you're well. A good, responsible (and hedged) posting! Interestingly, Brent is up $5 as I look today, and I hope that this isn't a false dawn. I think we can take anything Saudi Arabia says, with a pinch of Hydrocarbon!Best wishesSteve
uniformtango
02 Feb 2015
Re: Is a bid coming ? Nice link, forwardloop. But that is Afren, and this is Caza!Steve
forwardloop
02 Feb 2015
Re: Is a bid coming ? MGW[link]
coldascheese
02 Feb 2015
Is a bid coming ? Possible that a bid may be made for company as CAZA not valued at much but has huge future potential when oil price settles down.
zombynation
31 Jan 2015
Rising oil price Should catapult a recovery now here along with many other bombed out oil stocks
