indolent
19 Feb 2015
Re: Yorkville Steve,Oh I see, well I suppose a jump to 7.5p isn't even remotely out there given the volatility of AIM and oil let alone Caza. Prima facie they seem to burn through money faster as a mini-corporate proportionally even faster than I do as an individual.On a view of four months say I doubt that was the last RNS on funding but the first one, this one, did take longer to arrive than I expected. This is as close as I've been in years to attaching a SELL label but I know I don't have the capability to justify doing so. Oil could go up another 10% and barge this one up 25% if all I know. Steve
uniformtango
19 Feb 2015
FAO Spike501 HiI can't disagree with your well thought out posting. I just feel that the oil price will recover, and sooner rather than later. Whenif it does, Caza should be in decent shape to capitalise. I fully appreciate how disappointing the arrest of the recent up trend will be to all, myself included.I share your concerns, but lets wait and see if the board have got this correct!Steve
uniformtango
19 Feb 2015
Re: Yorkville Hi IndyLet me rephrase: "After reading today's RNS, I expected a drop to 7p, I didn't forecast it until 7
1, when one struggled to offload shares". Put another way, If I'd made a guess for Yorkville yesterday, I'd have sold all my shares, although I hold very few. I could, perhaps, have made a grand, after buying them back at 7p. I didn't, because I failed to predict this.The gist of what I suggest holds true; they appear to be battening down the hatches until it becomes profitable to drill again.You know I'm a half full person!Best wishesSteve
grewber
19 Feb 2015
Q4 Final Results Due soon, should help with understanding financial situation.
indolent
19 Feb 2015
Re: Yorkville "The expected sell of down to 7p,"Steve, if you told the BB before it dropped it would be all the more interesting . From a caution point of view though I would have thought Caza was worth avoiding until oil heads north convincingly. If it takes six months doing so then the company's finances might be touch and go. That wouldn't be the case with one of the majors. It was canny of management to wait for price to get heady before announcing working capital funding. Imagine if they had done so when the share price was somewhat shy of 5p.I don't know if analysts guesses are better than anyone's here when it comes to oil price trajectories but my reading yesterday and today suggests that sooner than later WTI will either test the recent multiyear lows or get quite close to that. I read another view of $10 which sounds as dubious as the projections of $200 even $250 when oil was inching towards $147 some years back. Saudi is the cheapest producer and needs at least $17or so I read. $45 ish for WTI again, even $40 sounds plausible given supply abundance. This is despite many rigs being taken off line or moved closer to core operations.
charlieeee
19 Feb 2015
Re: Yorkville death spiral finance...lender of the last resort and done to avoid immediate breach of covenants re Apollo "Furthermore, the injection of the entire initial tranche into the Company will result in an agreement with its existing debt provider, Apollo Investment Corporation ("Apollo"
, which will defer determination of finance and performance covenants under its US$50,000,000 note purchase agreement from 31 March 2015 to 30 September 2015".All the dangers of leverage now becoming apparent: high reward, but high risk.it was a grave mistake not to take advantage of the SP hike last year, when equity raising would have been far less dilutive.Higher oil prices needed PDQ.C.
spike501
19 Feb 2015
Re: Yorkville Sorry UT I totally disagree - I find this very worrying for the company.At the end of Q3 Caza were down to around $3million in working capital and still had drilling commitments through Q4 - I expect working capital before funding this was not far from zero.Caza had only drawn $45million of the initial $50million in notes - there should have been $5million available, why was this not used? I expect it is because that is to be used solely or drilling new properties where as the RNS on these notes say it is for "ongoing operational costs" which suggests actually running the business and paying bills not just for new dilling. Also pushing back covenant reviews 6 months does not sound promising.They had already scaled back capex and this $4million which seems to be the only funding available is not enough to continue to drill at a rate to cover the decline rates on existing wells - I forecast that production will start to fall in Q2, as will cashflow and drilling will have to slow further.I am extremely pessimistic about the future of Caza now unless there is a significant turnaround in oil prices.
uniformtango
19 Feb 2015
Yorkville The expected sell of down to 7p, with a fairly rapid recovery back to 7.5p. Nobody likes loans, but I believe this one to be prudent and sensible, and it should allow Caza to ride out the low oil price storm. They should then be in good shape, to start really prospecting again, when the time is right. Fill your boots at these prices; medium term is looking good, with Caza back to the 20s. fairly soon, but this time, holding.Steve
jaxonsax
19 Feb 2015
Re: Convertible loan RNS oh dear. Yorkville are back. Clunk goes the price
5 Iron
19 Feb 2015
Nasty bounce back. SOB! Oil price taken a step back overnight.
great bull
19 Feb 2015
Convertible loan RNS Allows caza to ride out the poor oil price at the moment, I believe will continue to improve over the next few months.
5 Iron
18 Feb 2015
Re: Nice bounce! I was the same but sold and bought periodically over the last few years and sit a lot more comfortably nowat just under 7p ave. Will sell half again next time its up at 25p!
Maverick
18 Feb 2015
Re: Nice bounce! Hope so my break even is 17p so still a long way to go. That includes me doubling up at 7.75p!
5 Iron
18 Feb 2015
Nice bounce! Climbed nicely since the low of the last week in January. Looks like it will followoil right back up.
dannysuko
13 Feb 2015
Re: Cheapest oily on the market [link] just waiting in the wings and with fund managers circulating, the pick up will come, patience! DS
