pearlsasinger
31 Mar 2017
Re: CARR crash -speed of downturn MB - yes you were right about the limited damage to the SP. I was very surprised at the speedof the SP recovery today. Trading turnover was also huge for such a small company Possibly short-covering??. (holder)
Meanbugger
31 Mar 2017
Re: CARR crash -speed of downturn Directors are allowed to deal under the Market Abuse Regulations provided there is not likely to be a price-sensitive RNS within the next 30 days. Announcing a profit warning 29 days after dealing is on the limit but Carr's have said that feed block sales in the US slowed down very quickly and unexpectedly. Feed blocks are high margin and it's hard to recover the lost profit elsewhere.As I expected the buying has continued and the auction uncrossing was at 135.5p so the shares are now only down 10% on the trading update.
pearlsasinger
31 Mar 2017
CARR crash -speed of downturn This is a great example of how quickly a company's fortunes can go into reverse.Chairman - CHRIS Holmes sold 20000 sharesat 151.5 p on 1st March 2017.The profits warning was announced on 30th.March.
Meanbugger
30 Mar 2017
Re: CARR crash -profits warning It seems that US cattle ranchers turn the tap off on their spending sharpish in response to falling cattle prices. However as soon as cattle prices improve they will start ordering feed blocks again. The engineering side has looked problematic for a while waiting for work to start on nuclear orders and scrapping for oil and gas work to fill the factory in Carlisle.The good news is that Investec the house broker have only reduced their forecasts for next year by 5% and have not changed their forecast for the following year at all. The shares totally overreacted when they fell to 106.5p and seem to attracting buying interest now around the 125p level.I can see the shares edging up from this level ahead of the interims to be announced just before Easter as long-term investors begin to look past this year's setback and focus on next year's results.
pearlsasinger
30 Mar 2017
CARR crash -profits warning U.S.A. cattle are going on hunger strike -it appears.They are not happy with the prices they are attractingThis happened very suddenly -it also appears.
Meanbugger
14 Nov 2016
Re: Final Results Results were slightly lower than my best guess. Revenue was a bit higher on the agricultural side helped by compound feed sales volumes being maintained. Engineering was affected by some contract delays and the currency benefit was less than anticipated.Of more interest is the volume of a million shares today. Obviously someone is keen on the shares to mop up the stock that hs been coming out.I think it is going to be another year of modest growth in profits and dividends.
Meanbugger
09 Nov 2016
Final Results The final results are due on Monday 14th November. Interestingly the Investec research notes have been removed from the investor relations section of the company website. Therefore there isn't a reliable forecast for what to expect on Monday. My guess is that revenue will be about £300 million after excluding the food division with pre-tax profits before exceptionals of around £15 million helped by currency gains. As always the outlook will be of more interest to investors than the historical figures.Turnover in the shares has been much higher recently with presumably some of the longer term holders reducing their positions. The shares are close to their low for the year and investors really need something positive next week to see the shares moving ahead.
Meanbugger
25 Oct 2016
Re: Top sliced One of the reasons I am less keen on CARR now is I am not sure farmers do need compound feeds in the same quantities that they used to. Even the Carrs Billington website now has a greater focus on grass growth and dry matter. Silage has become a crucial part of animal nutrition. Feed blocks and supplements will grow but I think compound feeds are in long-term decline.Carr's acquisition of STABER looks solid and low-risk but it doesn't really add much value to the company or generate any excitement for investors.
kintra
17 Oct 2016
Re: Top sliced I may have fewer shares than you but chose to let the special divi go back in as DRIP and am keeping all my CARRS shares as a safe(ish) albeit dull(ish) investment - I think farmers will still need cattle feeds for the foreseeable and I like the overall diversity of the group.If you crave excitement then the opposite end in my portfolio to CARRS in terms of risk is represented by SXX and AFC. They've both been fairly stable for a month BUT that is not normal for either share. If you want a very long shot at recovery play you can come and join us poor long term holders of TRK. But I really wouldn't recommend that.DYOR etc.
Meanbugger
10 Oct 2016
Re: Top sliced CARR are a bit stronger today. Maybe there is some dividend reinvestment going on. It's quite a challenge finding somewhere to put the money from the special dividend and top slicing. There are one or two very cheap shares out there but as you'd expect no stock on offer. Carr's have been a terrific investment over the last 15 years but not very good over the last 3 years. One share which could double over the next 3 years is Goodwin (GDWN) where the directors have awarded themselves a new LTIP. This for a company which never even had share options before. It is a massive beneficiary of weak sterling. I've held them for as long as CARR and they have been a fantastic investment but I think they'll still go up from here.I've started to look at Sepura (SEPU). It has been a shocking performer and may need to strengthen the balance sheet. It is very high risk but it could possibly be a ten-bagger over the next few years as it recovers. I know nothing so DYOR.Finally Redhall (RHL) is a purer play on nuclear than CARR and has jumped after the Hinkley Point announcement. It is on the road to recovery, the directors are loaded with cheap options and it probably won't remain independent for ever. I'm holding this rightly or wrongly for the long term.
picstloup
07 Oct 2016
Top sliced Special divi in the bank, and sold 25% of my holding in the last few days. Now, where to put the cash?
Meanbugger
17 Sep 2016
Directors' options It was quietly announced after the market had closed on Thursday that the ceo and fd had exercised their full tranche of LTIP options given to them in May 2013 and had then sold a good chunk of them for tax reasons on Wednesday before the shares went xd. With earnings per share predicted to fall by 20% after the flour mills disposal I can see why they cashed in the options when they did. I wonder if all the staff exercised all the options they could before the xd date. We'll probably have to wait until the next Total Voting Rights announcement at the end of the month to find out.
Meanbugger
14 Sep 2016
Re: Nearly 5% down today The shares go ex-dividend tomorrow so this is the last day for investors to buy for the special dividend (or sell to avoid higher rate tax on it as well). I think it is an interesting business school question as to how the shares might react on going ex-dividend.I am sure there has been some buying by income funds for the dividend. There is always some fund manager somewhere who needs to top up his income to meet targets. I found this useful website and the Carr's special dividend stands out as being particularly juicy.[link] think the shrewd picstloup may be typical of shareholders in his thinking - bank the dividend then think about the size of his shareholding afterwards. Accordingly I am expecting a fairly weak performance tomorrow as buying from income funds stops and those shareholders who were hanging on for the divi start selling. I think a buying level of around 135p ex-d would be about right.
picstloup
13 Sep 2016
Re: Nearly 5% down today And back up 5% today. Think you'll be lucky to get £1.35 even ex d, at least in the next month or so. I'm waiting to bank the divi and will then reduce my holding. Had some excellent returns over the years (some years my Carr's earned more than I did) but 30% of my wad in one holding is just too much, especially if they're going to be less diversified in future.
Speculator 73
09 Sep 2016
Nearly 5% down today This is nearly 5% down as I write this Have set up a buy at 135p if this goes to it prior to ex divi date .... lets wait and watchEven though they have disposed of thier "silver lining" - believe given medium to long term would give a good return
