soi
01 Jun 2018
CARD trade 197.19 long.I did sell my shares a while back, forgot to post here but was posted elsewhere.So just this long in now.I feel it is oversold.soi
schwee
01 Jun 2018
Re: Yet again........ The danger is that the 4.6% normal divi yield is a chimera when the debt comes to be repaid. New lenders might tighten the financial covenants and/or demand higher interest rates.
zip00
31 May 2018
ii trade numbers today something very wrong with the trade numbers for todays trading, some 14m shares traded in the last 2 minutes today, plus some 2m traded mid afternoon? ii say 3.7 traded?zip00
contrarianstyle
31 May 2018
Re: Yet again........ true but then why would you hold card factory without a near 10% yield (which it currently would be if we get 10p special on top of normal div)?to be fair it would still be 4.6% yield without the special...so probably still would hold them
cta100
31 May 2018
Re: Yet again........ A couple of sell side analysts have put a projection of approximately -20% on junk mail volumes as a result of GDPR, at least in the context of notes out on Royal Mail if not the whole delivery market. Whether happens or not, or will affect stamp pricing who knows. Personally don't think it has much of a impact on Card's business either way.I think the share price reaction today isn't a response to LFL being slightly negative, which in current retail context is a reasonable number, but more either disappointment over the online comments or continued balance sheet concerns - but then neither of that is really news. I don't see why management just drop the special divi, rather than starting to manage it downwards, and get on with building up a cash balance / paying off the debt . Suspect the market would value that more than the additional yield in the current base of retail being out of favour in general.
frusset
31 May 2018
Re: Yet again........ "Surveys today showing business and retail confidence bouncing back."How sensitive is CARD's sales to business and retail confidence? I don't think anyone's ever dropped me from their Christmas card list because of lower confidence, or even from getting poorer. They might have sent a cheaper card, or bought it from a cheaper shop, or bought their cards online. The lower margin non-card stuff might be a bit more sensitive.I'm more concerned by postage costs. You can downgrade from 1st class to 2nd, then it's personal delivery, e-cards or nothing. If the volume of letters continues to drop, postage rates could be raised to compensate. The unions are also a problem. There's a PDF from PWC, "The outlook for UK mail volumes to 2023" [link] which has "We expect the decline of letter volumes to continue but at a slower rate over the projection period", with a breakdown of why. Does anyone know if GDPR will affect junk mail volumes? I can't find anything, so maybe it won't.
II Editor
31 May 2018
NEW ARTICLE: Card Factory runs into fresh selling "Despite reassuring investors that a special dividend will be in the post, LSE:CARD:Card Factory shares fell victim to the brutal climate for retail stocks today.A first quarter update showing a 0.4% drop in like-for-like sales contained few ..."[link]
contrarianstyle
31 May 2018
Re: Yet again........ intially she popped to 2.30 then got hammered down to £2 at which point i dropped some more funds in...the high street is a tough place to be and like for like sales only being down 0.4% isn`t too bad in my view...most importantly was the statement again that more cash is coming to shareholders"The Board currently anticipates, subject to trading performance, making afurther return of surplus cash to shareholders, in line with our statedpolicy, towards the end of the current financial year. A further update willbe given with our interim results for the 6 months ending 31 July 2018, duefor release in late September.!
sound money
31 May 2018
Yet again........ The market punishes a really solid trading statement ahead of the AGM.Of course this is a backward looking view of a really tough quarter. Karen mentions "subdued footfall" I'm putting that down to the beast from the east. My own post office had mail sitting for five days.Surveys today showing business and retail confidence bouncing back.According to Lloyds business confidence is up despite or because of Brexit. You take your pick.M
frusset
31 May 2018
Re: Dividend alert ... Off topic"There probably are safer c.7% prospective yields in the UK market.... aren't there? I am sure such people will name them!"This isn't from the UK, but the yield on Nordea Bank is nearer 8%. I've commented about the stock on JNL&display=discussion" target="blank" rel="nofollow">[link]
Bill1703
22 May 2018
Re: Dividend alert ... "... Card Factory gets a mention."(See below for response to this "article", already posted on the VOD board).One word... rhymes with "rowlocks".Anyone can push a button and run a screen, without any analysis into - indeed, knowledge of - the individual stocks.CARD is highlighted, yet they quote the yield INCLUDING the latest forecast "special" element. If the point is that this is yield is perhaps not sustainable... well, um, yes, no ***t Sherlock. That is why "specials" are special - in this case, driven by high recurring free cashflows and a balance sheet only now approaching "optimal" leverage. The ordinary divi yield is more like 4.2%, still pretty decent, a good bit more than the UK market average AND covered 2x by current and forecast earnings. With the FCF profile likely to drive further shareholder returns over and above this, into the medium term.And IMB? Recently reported the 10th SUCCESSIVE year of 10%+ dividend growth, and then committed - very firmly - to the 11th. Sure, cover is relatively (but not terribly) low on reported earnings, somewhat better (c.1.6x) on the underlying measure which they base their policy on - and as with CARD, the article totally misses the FCF point. IMB is one of the (few) blue-chips where FCF cover is ABOVE EPS cover - at 1.4x, only around the UK average, and on relatively predictable and defensive cash flows.Sure, the utilities are running with relatively low cover levels... as they have since about 1998. With payouts - growing steadily in general, no more, no less - underpinned by monopoly (in most cases) inflation-protected revenues and highly predictable cash flows. Of course, utility stocks have plenty of pressures ahead of them - relatively low divi covers (but still well above 1x) are pretty low down the list.And as for VOD... well, we've been through that before on here, ad nauseam. Suffice to say, anyone looking askance at reported EPS dividend cover probably doesn't own the stock, and probably never will... that is their prerogative (or problem, whichever way you look at it). There probably are safer c.7% prospective yields in the UK market.... aren't there? I am sure such people will name them!
gamesinvestor
22 May 2018
Dividend alert ... [link] Factory gets a mention.Games
ballymena bill
11 May 2018
Re: Ex div absorbed I also sold off a portion that was in profit EX divi (still left with quite a few) but am looking to re-purchase and will try to time it better. A thing I'm not that good at.
Muzzletoff
08 May 2018
Re: Chairman There is virtually never a good time to sell if you are a Company Director, because someone will always read something into, or allege disloyalty.I am more concerned with 'professional' Directors, who acquire Directorships like confetti. I can't say whether this Chairman brings anything to the party that another could not do, apart from his ability to get other Directorships.There is an argument in a generally stable business like CF not to over remunerate, someone who has in essence only has to do about 8 meetings a year.
contrarianstyle
04 May 2018
Ex div absorbed not sure why but yesterday we rose on ex dividend day, down a bit today thoughnow its whether I look to top up if this sells off for the special
