IOMINVESTCOM
18 May 2017
Paul Scott's view My opinion - you may have guessed by now that I like these figures! This company really is a class act. Luke Johnson owns 38.6% of the company, so I'm very happy to be riding on the coat tails of this very experienced & highly regarded entrepreneur.Hospitality is cooling as a sector at the moment. This is due to problems with rising costs, and over-capacity. Several companies in the sector have reported a decline in profits, and slowing or halting expansion plans.As always, the best companies sail through troubled waters, taking the problems in their stride. That's exactly what's happening here. Cost pressures have been mitigated, it's just a really well-run business, with an excellent format.I like the comments about expansion overseas now being considered.Eventually, I reckon this company is likely to be sold, for a decent premium. This is alluded to by several brokers today.EDIT: Many thanks to one of our star members, Bestace, who has flagged up a results presentation on CAKE's website. Well worth a read - it's here.[link]
IOMINVESTCOM
18 May 2017
Beaufort Sec view Our view: Patisserie continue to deliver strong results. Although the gross margin has dipped slightly from 78.3% a year ago to 78.0% due to high inflationary pressures on food costs, EBITDA margin has improved from 21.1% to 22.0%. This resulted pre-tax profit and EBITDA grew faster than the revenue growth, therefore led to earnings per share enhancement and ability for +20% hike in interim dividend, in line with its progressive dividend policy. The Group opened second store in Northern Ireland and first international store in the Republic of Ireland, which is highly encouraging as the success of these can lead towards accelerated store expansion plan internationally. The Group has noted that its Republic of Ireland store is performing well. Looking ahead, the Group said post period trading has been good and is remain on track to open 10 additional new stores this year, while retaining rich pipeline of further new sites. In terms of costs, the management noted that prices of majority of core ingredients post the period has now stabilised at normalised levels. Other costs such as rent and the Business Rates have relatively benign effect, while National Minimum and National Living Wage increases implemented in April 2017 and the next stage of the National Living Wage increase will add c.£0.5m on cost. The Group is continuing to mitigate these impact through more effective labour rostering method and other areas of scale benefits. Together with further supply chain improvements and operational gearing from the growing group, the management expect broadly flat gross margin in FY2017. Although concerns over wage pressure and ingredient price inflation persists, given its track-record of growth, management confidence as well as strong balance sheet, growth momentum is ongoing. The shares are valued at FY2017E and FY2018E P/E multiples of 21.5x and 18.6x, along with dividend yields of 1.0% and 1.2%. Beaufort reiterates its Buy rating on the Shares.
1timco
26 Apr 2017
Sainsburys CAKE doing a 12 week trial in selected Sainsburys stores thanks to a recommendation I made to Mike Coupe.
Broncomaniac
07 Mar 2017
Re: Feedback on Outlets Another negative experience to report unfortunately I went to the Tunbridge Wells cafe on Saturday at about 3pm. About half of the items on the menu had already sold out. No scones, no eclairs, no mille feuille, really poor stock management and disappointing as a customer.The menus were also tatty & dog-eared. Also as a customer I wasn't impressed that they don't take American Express, it rather undermines the premium image.
give the dog a bone
20 Feb 2017
Re: Feedback on Outlets I've been a big fan of CAKE but now Im not so sure. Druckers and some of the other brands are pretty limited and no longer see that they have a unique proposition to attract customers all those plates stacking up initially drew me in as clear evidence but after a while not being able to get a clean table makes me reconsider. So... I'm clearing out of CAKE s
Franky33
20 Feb 2017
Feedback on Outlets Kings Cross mezzanine. It looked small and tired. I don't think the proposition works in this open eating area format.
IOMINVESTCOM
02 Feb 2017
Re: CAKE, Why The Rise????????????????? Hi Joe,Yes, superb day for CAKE.I see a little resistance around 3.50- 3.55 before that.[link] due out at the weekend but already in their growth portfolioatb
oldjoe1
02 Feb 2017
Re: CAKE, Why The Rise????????????????? CAKE on the verge of a breakout into the gap circled on the chart at 340p, Sp target 370p.[link]
oldjoe1
02 Feb 2017
CAKE, Why The Rise????????????????? CAKE........Gone ballistic, somebody knows something, a bid coming in??????????[link]
II Editor
27 Jan 2017
NEW ARTICLE: Are these 11 shares a long-term buy? "The ones that got awayOne of the frustrating things about relying on annual reports* is that, rather like rainfall, new information about companies is not distributed evenly throughout the year. This seasonality occurs because more companies ..."[link]
Franky33
20 Jan 2017
Feedback on Outlets There is an outlet near me in Manchester. Prime position on the corner of 2 busy streets. Always busy throughout the day. Great proposition - there will never be a shortage of customers for coffee and cake. Current p/e looks modest when you look at the mileage in front of the company for roll-outs.
IOMINVESTCOM
03 Jan 2017
Paul Scott's view / CAKE related Also, I like;Patisserie Holdings (LON:CAKE) (in which I hold a long position) - this one is a lot more expensive (forward PER of 19.2), but it's a great format, and is also debt-free. Luke Johnson owns 38% so you just know it's going to do well over the long term. I only recently bought into this share, around 300p-ish, but intend holding forever - or at least providing the valuation doesn't get too crazy. I suspect growth is likely to be augmented by acquisitions too.The other thing to consider with roll-outs, is that the High Street is now under so much pressure, that plenty of empty sites are likely to appear. RBG has already said that it is being offered very good sites, at low rents, and with deals (e.g. long rent-free periods). Therefore, this is a particularly good time to invest in any retail formats (shops, bars, cafes, restaurants, etc) that are expanding. They're spoiled for choice in terms of new premises, and can get great deals.I think High Streets are changing, and becoming much more leisure destinations. So it makes sense to find the best, expanding operators, and jump on board, in my view. I see 2017 being a bloodbath for independent retailers, and maybe some big names too. Something has to give, as there's not enough business to go round, and rents are far too high in many cases.Yet the 5-yearly upward-only rent review system doesn't allow for rents to adjust downwards, until either a lease expires, or the tenant goes bust. So I think there could be a long & painful period of weaker retailers going under. I certainly wouldn't be investing in any property companies with significant exposure to retail premises, either. Sooner or later I imagine they're likely to see a lot of downward pressure on rents. Combine that with likely increases in interest costs, and it may not be a pretty picture at all.[link]
oldjoe1
16 Dec 2016
Re: You can have your CAKE and eat It. CAKE Update.Plenty of momentum behind this one and historically cheap. Online sales were booming, will be interesting to see Xmas update.[link]
Broncomaniac
05 Dec 2016
Re: c'mon Luke ... visit the outlets Agreed, only anecdotal but every time I've been past the TW store it has been heaving. The small size of the concession does make it a little chaotic, particularly for people trying to buy takeaway. They should consider opening a second location in TW.
give the dog a bone
05 Dec 2016
c'mon Luke ... visit the outlets been watching these for a while ..love their products and the share price rise .last week in the Tunbridge Wells store it was packed to capacity . Tables all overflowing with empty cups and plates . Didn't appreciate being snapped at by the assistant behind the counter shouting out " Oi, get in the queue .." . there was no line just customers milling around. Hasty departuresbut thought some customer etiquette training wouldn't go amiss . Nor would employing some additional weekend staff be out of order . On the +ive side , the Portugese Staff in Eastbourne are fabulous ;much better than the UK born and bread (sic) who think they should be managers after a week's experience . Still love their setup and actually some CAKE is good for me?
