Eadwig
24 Nov 2015
Re: Suddenly the bus go quiet Perhaps all the passengers are contemplating gold at 6 year lows?
Eadwig
24 Nov 2015
Re: Strong Update - Price crash Hardcore Uproar,I specifically asked for Hydrogen Economy (or someone equally skilled) to cast their eye over the BVS situation, after a steep fall in share price, unique to the company, after a trading update pretty much confirmed business as usual (Ie. Good, but not quite as efficient execution as others in the sector).He gave his time and effort to respond in a constructive manner, then you slag him off directly. That is the type of behaviour that will kill off the usefulness of ii boards. You're entitled to your own views but if you want people to keep on reading them, I suggest you don't discourage the few people who actually post, let alone the far fewer, such as Hydrogen Economy, who make responsive and constructive and helpful contributions.Thanks again for your contribution, H2.
Hardcore Uproar
24 Nov 2015
Suddenly the bus go quiet You have your second chance to join Eadwig, at an even lower yet no one appears to be taking this glorious special offer.Who are Bovis, accountants? Go back to 2007, when builders were posting record results, many in 2007, were accusing builders of manipulating accounts.
Hydrogen Economy
23 Nov 2015
Re: Strong Update - Price crash HU, my analysis may be floored, or even flawed but I was responding to a question about a stock specific move unique to BVS not shared by the sector, curious what the macro explanation is for that? Is BVS uniquely vulnerable to customer demand, bank solvency or customer debt ratios which do not affect PSN or TW? Did these threats manifest themselves suddenly on Thursday morning?. As for looking at one side- actually my post was pointing out the likely EPS shortfall against forecasts. One sided entrenched views? well I think that there are posters known for that... byeH2
Hardcore Uproar
23 Nov 2015
Re: Strong Update - Price crash The only trouble with the poster Hydrogen Economy is that he only looks at the micro aspects & forgets the macro. He probably would have been posting the same kind of analysts in 2007 about house builders, you can see the potential floors in these kind of post & how investor minds are trenched in the past. It is not the passed you are concerned with it is the future. Notice with this H/E, that he presents virtually no forecasting & the effects of different scenarios. Could the "skills shortage" be a cover for hiding other problems? Always think & question. In the past we have witnessed many a poster publishing this type of analytical assessment only for them to fall flat on their faces. They take the accounts as some type of gospel, everyone should be well aware of the questions of competency surrounding any of the four big accountants. But for many it´s the same as before. Those that haven´t the ability to be critical, question more.But H/E analytical analysis is floored because it is looking at one side, how can any decent poster ignore the macro (customer/demand)? You cannot ignore out of hand consumer debt ratios. You need also to consider bank/government solvency. They will not because the outcome scenarios become far less certain.
Hydrogen Economy
22 Nov 2015
Re: Strong Update - Price crash Hi EadwigThanks, the fy results will be the final judge! Appreciate your ideas in the sector, will certainly be looking into them.regardsH2
Eadwig
21 Nov 2015
Re: Strong Update - Price crash Hydrogen Economy,Fantastic response, you are too modest about your own knowledge and abilities.I too have been adding on weakness in some areas of the sector. You might like to check out INL, a small company with an interesting mix of income from house building, rentals, including on affordable property within developments and commercial, plus brownfield specialist consultancy and gaining planning consent before selling on land plots.TEF I'm sure you have looked at before. Just done a placement at 360p that has dragged the share price back, but allows it to extend its sales pipeline by 50% to £1.5 Billion. Brownfield, London specialist with outstanding growth prospects.ESP A student accommodation specialist, with conversions and new build offering premium accommodation throughout Britain. Primarily a dividend play as it will return 6% on its initial offering price + rpi each year. Any capital appreciation of assets will just enhance the share price from here. Early days still to get in on this one if you're interested. Plenty of discussion/info on the ESP board.I also hold PSN, for the record, still the best of breed amongst the big boys, in my opinion. Although some question about how to proceed with their return of capital to shareholders now the law has been changed. Director's families still buying shares - almost always a good sign.
Hardcore Uproar
21 Nov 2015
The hurricane is coming Interesting if you go back to 2007 & watch some TV debates versus bears/bulls, the bulls could never see the end.1) There is absolutely no need to raise % rates per se. The government spending deficit still looks to come in around 75bn GBP. At some point a sterling crisis is coming without serve austerity in the public sector & tax hikes. The total government debt is getting on for 1.6 trillion GBP, absolutely colossal.2) The NHS is too effects bust, it looks on its last legs. The public sector employs 1/4. So how house price is inflation is what it is god only knows. This cannot be sustainable for very long.3) looking at the figures yesterday, the economy is subtracting, tax receipts are falling. Give it another 6 months
Hydrogen Economy
21 Nov 2015
Re: Strong Update - Price crash Eadwig Sorry for belated response, was travelling when update issued and certainly cannot live up to your kind description but my thoughts here areI agree with what posters have flagged as the reason for the drop-Rising costs squeezing margin- especially contractor/build costs-The planning delays on higher margin sites- sector concerns about interest rates etc.It is not so clear from that why such a drop, so I checked a simple model of BVS numbers using the 8% volume growth and marginal increase on operating margin flagged in the update (I assumed 17.5%). Assuming no changes in finance and other contributors, that suggests 2015 numbers:-Revenue 910m + 12.5%Profit BT 151.6 + 13.6%EPS 87p +10.5%That looks OK, albeit behind other builders. The kicker is that analyst forecasts for 2015 in Digital Look were Rev - 947.7 - 17%PBT - 168.8 - 26.5%EPS - 100.3p - 21%My numbers are very rough, but I suspect that the analysts have woken up to the fact they had overestimated the growth and have offloaded accordingly. Valuation attempts to reflect the expected earnings trajectory over future 5-10 years, if the growth this year is downgraded, the total cash-flow estimate is likely to be seriously downgraded. Funnily enough I see that I had run a forecast after H1 update and got lower EPS than 87p so I guess i should have seen this one coming.Presumably the planning/sales mix will unwind in 2016, the cost pressures thay suggest are easing, although I think that may be a bit optimistic. I feel BVS represents pretty good value at this price so will hang on to my moderate holding. I remain positive about the sector and hold TW, GFRD, RDW, PSN and BKG, starting to add several of these in weakness. GFRD is also well down, I am waiting to add. It has over half it's revenue in construction/PPI projects which historically have had negligable margins- but these are staring to recover and could start to really contribute to earnings, also the space 4 modular housing construction system (acquired with Westbury if I remember correctly) position them well to control costs. TW are performing well and priced accordingly but I have added below 180p and would again.BKG is a class act, hurt by London and SE focus but they have shown they can adapt well to changing situations and I think they are starting to look like decent value, despite (or maybe because of) the strange capital return scheme.H2
moorlaner
20 Nov 2015
jim slater always been a big fan of his. thx for all the tips. rip
Investor KT
19 Nov 2015
Re: Comment on price fall I believe the drop is due to operating margin, which is going to be basically slight improvement on last year's. If you compare the operating margin with Persimmon (18.2%), Berkeley (24.7%), Bellway (20.4%) that of Bovis (16.9%) is low. Furthermore, the benefit of house price appreciation is offset by rising contractor costs, which are rising fast too, owing to labour shortage.
king-canute
19 Nov 2015
Re: Comment on price fall On reflection my view is that punters are expecting too much of the company in the short term. Bovis build outside the London price bubble area of London, nevertheless should prices fall in London next year or in 2017 that may well affect Bovis house sales.
king-canute
19 Nov 2015
Comment on price fall From Sharecast websiteShares in Bovis Homes Group slumped almost 10% early on Thursday after the home builder revealed its mix of homes for 2015 will be more weighted to existing sites than previously expected.[link] don't understand how that fully explains the fall this morning, perhaps some expert could enlighten me. Perhaps Jim Slater has sold all his holding in the company.
Eadwig
19 Nov 2015
Re: Strong Update - Price crash The fall isn't industry wide, and the only thing in the announcement is that sales remain strong, house price inflation for Bovis is at 7% (1% above the national average released earlier in the week) and all remains on track.The land bank stuff is quite detailed and looks fine to me, but perhaps I'm missing something. There are some experts about on ii that are excellent on that stuff - Hydrogen Economy springs to mind immediately. Perhaps he can enlighten us or give us his thoughts.The one thing that you can say is that Bovis doesn't return the truly stellar figures of a Persimmon or Barratt, but that isn't anything new. I doubt the market was gambling on them suddenly doing so to the extent of 10%, nor do I think it is profit taking given that the price was already quite off its highs.I'm half expecting to see an RNS that a large fund sold its whole holding. Strange time to do it just as the expected figures for the year were more or less confirmed at the top end. Time will tell I guess.
dazedandconfused
19 Nov 2015
Re: Strong Update - Price crash i would have expected to have seen the others fall significantly in concert with Bovis, so i can only think this is something in the announcement (which i haven't read in detail). Information i have on the South & East office workloads and sales suggests nothing is slowing down the recent increase in activity (and profitability). Topped up myself but missed the sub-£9 low!
