peddlar
15 Aug 2016
Re: Why the fall? because JP morgan down graded the whole sector.Bovis by 200pCancaurd down down by 300pCan not understand myself!!!
LoadsaDosh2
15 Aug 2016
Why the fall? Good results and price fall? Seems to happen with BVS, then they recover and go up some more.
Hydrogen Economy
15 Aug 2016
Re: H1 Business as Usual Sorry typo, before the bears start voting up I'd better correctDoes NOT seem overpriced.H2
Hydrogen Economy
15 Aug 2016
H1 Business as Usual H1 results very good as expected, reservations and commentary on outlook remains positive. Cost inflation moderating. Forward PE for 2016 7.7 if same growth achievd in H2, 8.4 even if there is zero EPS growth in H2. Yield around 5.2% covered well over 2x.Does seem overpriced. Revenue +19%EPS +14%DPS +9%Net Debt down from GBP 59m to 8mOver 90% of planned home sales for 2016 achieved as at 12 AugustReservation rates improving after a short term slow down in JulyWhilst it is too early to judge the impact of the EU Referendum and the Bank's monetary policy response on the UK housing market, the underlying market fundamentals for UK housing remain positive. We have been pleased with the resilient level of interest shown by potential home buyers contacting us. Strong housing demand has led to overall market pricing improvements, with the Group having experienced pricing ahead of expectations with Help to Buy continuing to be a significant driver of sales. ...impact of inflation on our cost base has moderated compared to last yea
Hardcore Uproar
16 Jul 2016
To make a long story short The real reason the BoE & the UK government want a weak currency is to attract foreign reserves. What you´re running a huge BoP deficit as well as a huge current account, you need to keep selling your assets to foreign buyers. It can be used to keep Ponzi schemes going like the London commercial & private property housing markets especially when the falls are against the U.S.$. The stronger the currency the harder it is to service a massive BoP, Government & current account deficit.Absolutely nothing to do with commercial exports.
Eadwig
16 Jul 2016
Re: iii Why so few messages H2, " indeed some like the drop in Sterling may in the medium term turn out to be a silver lining as it did after the ERM exit in 92,"It didn't actually work out for the Uk in terms of more exports, which is what people keep saying, and GBP was back to the same levels around by 97. In 2008 we had similar drop in Sterling to this one and it improved exports not one jot. Reason? Britain's exports aren't really price sensitive, we're not that sort of manufacturer, and we're certainly not that sort of service provider.In other words, our exports tend to be high quality, and premium priced, hence even a 10% drop in GBP has a marginal affect on exports The other side is that imports go up in price, and some suppliers in the building trade have already announced price rises because their product and .or raw materials are more expensive due to the Fx rate.Depending on what happens to freedom of movement builders costs are likely to get more expensive too, especially as the new government does appear to be intent on attempting to meet supply better .... although how is not yet clear, that is good for Bovis and others going forward.The fact is, Bovis remains the least liked by the market of the large builders.Their fundamentals tend to be very good when looked at in isolation, but measured against the rest of the sector they generally under-perform against comparable companies such as BDEV, PSN and TW (I'm assuming TW, actually, I haven't checked).Bovis management appears not to have really improved metric compared against others, so the market assigns them a lower earnings multiple, essentially, this in turn means when someone is looking to invest in the sector, they are more likely to go for one of the above three - all of which could argue best of breed to one degree or another of this type of builder (Ie large volume, multiple sites across the UK), and Bovis comes in well down the list.Hence the lack of posts I think - there are not that many on any of the above boards either, but like-for-like, there are more investors in those it seems, for the above reason I have given, I presume.If I get time I will try and put some key metrics together for comparison of the four. Should there be any others in that similar list? I hear Bellway mentioned a lot but i don't really know if they are comparable, or Redrow, or whatever they're called now after takeover.
II Editor
15 Jul 2016
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Source
30 Jun 2016
Re: iii Why so few messages Thanks Yertiz - yep certainly possible, but a lot of the bad news seems priced in given its at NTAV already i.e. see article below:-Regards,Source...................A bargain housebuilder?Will the housing market crash, or will strong demand for new homes support prices? In my view the situation is quite finely balanced. The risk is that a small fall in prices could cause potential buyers to withdraw from the market. This could create the conditions for a slump, even if the economy remains stable.However, it's quite possible that strong demand, cheap mortgages and government support will keep the housing market moving. In that case Bovis Homes Group (LSE:BVS) could be a bargain. The housebuilder's shares have fallen by 28% since last Thursday.At a share price of 680p, Bovis now trades below its tangible net asset value of 714p per share. The shares also look cheap relative to forecast earnings. Bovis now trades on a 2016 forecast P/E of 6.3 with a prospective yield of 6.4%. These factors should provide some support for Bovis shares and could attract buyers, as long as the housing market does remain stable.
Yertiz
29 Jun 2016
Re: iii Why so few messages Well considered and thought out reasoning, Source. Can't disagree with any of that, save one word that's been banded about - Recession. This is what usually kills any housing market, the banks and property investment concerns. But who knows? I am reasonably hopeful there will be no recession, certainly over the longer term I think Company UK will be bigger, more flexible and far better away from the EU shackles. Ever the optimist, glass half full type that I am.
Source
29 Jun 2016
Re: iii Why so few messages Just trying to think through how impactful the EU decision is really going to be for house builders like Bovis (the market is assuming a huge one, but my thinking through doesn't suggest so - am I missing something?). I.E.(1). Nothing is going to change for 2 years at least(2) over these two years free flow of trade and people will stay the same, maybe even accelerate(3) labour prices won't likely change in this time but may tweak up a bit afterwards(4) land input prices will fall for house builders(5) buyers demand will be subject to more concern, but given fundamental supply demand deficits is likely to normalise in the short to medium term(6) government will be keen to stabilise any disruptions in the house market from its ample "EU Savings", or maybe even roll back its recent stamp duty increases(7) appreciate there may be some short term economic uncertainty and hence loss of jobs(8) banks lending could drop, but given all the recent changes and much higher deposit requirements etc mortgages remain very good business for banks so any effect again could be temporary or limited(9) recent events only seems to confirm stocks and bond are still too risky, low yielding investments for many compared to brick and mortar(10) Leave promises are all unraveling (like NHS, labour migration stops etc ) so maybe their hints at lower house prices will too? There is likely to be some moderation in rises certainly though in the short to medium term(11) existing large house builders seem very healthy with strong land banks , lots of cash and solid financing available(12) Interest rates look likely to be much more affordable for buyers and for a lot longer given the uncertainty ahead (globally).(13) Similarly sterling falls makes the increasingly attractive UK residential market more attractive for foreign buyers once things calm down a bit.(14) the trend of residential property as in investment class may still continue its upward trend after a pause.-- Anyway that's all I have now but Armageddon doesn't seem a fair characterisation once the shock subsides a bit nor does it seem a foregone conclusion, but maybe I am missing something?Regards,Source.
Source
27 Jun 2016
Re: iii Why so few messages Drops continue...Yield is juicy to say the least and Bovis's asset base seems a strong margin of safety at this level. While there will be sentiment issues & maybe some moderation from economic growth the fundamentals are hardly changed...Saw the 2 articles below and this was before even today's falls! (not sure who the 2nd chap is or his record, but HSBC Brokers reaffirmed their Buy Case and £14 target! Hmmm.)Regards,Source.........................Bovis Homes Group plc (BVS) Receives Buy Rating from HSBCBovis Homes Group plc (LON:BVS)‘s stock had its ” buy” rating reaffirmed by stock analysts at HSBC in a report issued on Monday. They currently have a GBX 1,450 ($21.29) price target on the stock. HSBC’s price target suggests a potential upside of 86.98% from the stock’s current price.A number of other equities research analysts also recently commented on BVS. Deutsche Bank restated a “buy” rating on shares of Bovis Homes Group plc in a research report on Thursday, March 17th. Goldman Sachs restated a “buy” rating and issued a GBX 1,320 ($19.38) price objective on shares of Bovis Homes Group plc in a research report on Thursday, March 24th. Canaccord Genuity restated a “buy” rating and issued a GBX 1,150 ($16.89) price objective on shares of Bovis Homes Group plc in a research report on Friday, April 22nd. Liberum Capital reduced their price objective on shares of Bovis Homes Group plc from GBX 950 ($13.95) to GBX 899 ($13.20) and set a “hold” rating for the company in a research report on Friday, April 22nd. Finally, Numis Securities Ltd restated an “add” rating and issued a GBX 1,023 ($15.02) price objective on shares of Bovis Homes Group plc in a research report on Tuesday, May 10th. Two research analysts have rated the stock with a sell rating, five have issued a hold rating and six have given a buy rating to the company. Bovis Homes Group plc has a consensus rating of “Hold” and an average target price of GBX 1,204.15 ($17.68).Bovis Homes Group plc (LON:BVS) opened at 675.5000 on Monday. The firm’s market capitalization is GBX 907.24 million. The company has a 50-day moving average price of GBX 950.31 and a 200-day moving average price of GBX 924.98. Bovis Homes Group plc has a 12-month low of GBX 430.00 and a 12-month high of GBX 1,206.00. Bovis Homes Group PLC is a United Kingdom-based builder of homes in England and Wales. The Company’s business is involved in the design, build and sale of new homes for both private customers and Registered++++++++[link] basement.Property play Bovis Homes(LSE: BVS) took a much heftier whack in end-of-week business, the stock tumbling 24% from pre-referendum levels.Bovis was hurt by a double whammy of fears. Stock selectors digested the possibility of wavering homebuyer confidence in the months ahead and the impact of rising stress on the banking sector, a potential roadblock to the favourable lending conditions currently enjoyed by purchasers.However, I believe the risks facing Bovis are more than baked-in at the present time. Indeed, the stock currently changes hands on P/E ratings of 7 times and 6.2 times for 2016 and 2017, respectively, thanks to predicted earnings rises of 16% and 14%.This is well below the threshold of 10 times or under that’s indicative of high-risk stocks. And dividend yields of 5.8% and 6.5% for these years smash the big-cap average of 3.5% by some distance.While Bovis’s near-term earnings projections may be subject to downgrades, I reckon the housing sector remains robust enough to make the firm a solid long-term stock selection.[link]
Hydrogen Economy
27 Jun 2016
Re: iii Why so few messages SourceIt would seem so, although the full knock-on effects are hard to predict, indeed some like the drop in Sterling may in the medium term turn out to be a silver lining as it did after the ERM exit in 92, improving UK export competitiveness. A dip in confidence and GDP seems likely however and I guess the worry that this will flip the housing market from full ahead to hard astern is what is worrying people. With the number of potential buyers out there I struggle a little to see it unless the interest rates are hiked quickly to protect the pound. But that's the thing, it all a bit unclear. Could turn out to be a great buy in point. Or not.H2.
Source
26 Jun 2016
Re: iii Why so few messages 3% drop in FTSE, and a 25% Drop in Bovis seems quite an over-reaction given how little it is actually affected by Brexit...But who knows what crazy markets can do, but this does seem an over reaction.Regards,Source.
Yertiz
23 May 2016
Re: iii Why so few messages Seems to be the case across the board. Has everyone sold in May, gone away and waiting for Brexit day?
Hydrogen Economy
23 May 2016
iii Why so few messages I tried 6 times to post a longish message here, all rejected with "inappropriate language or other problem", I can only guess due to lack of expletives or abuse and nearly competent punctuation.No wonder so few people bother to post these days. H2.
