Eadwig
01 Jul 2019
Bearish "Diamond Top" chart pattern Bowman: I have often seen the type of prediction / signals you posted. I think with all these types of prediction they should be used in co-ordination with other data, rather than in isolation I absolutely agree with this. Some ardent chartists say ‘everything else is just noise’. How you can dismiss E.g the impact of Brexit or a USA China trade war as ‘just noise’ I don’t know. One chart I posted was on MERLin Entertainments and it showed a bullish pattern which didn’t quite hit the date range predicted and then shot well above the target set when MERL announced a friendly takeover which more or less is an agreement by the board, some major investors and some additional investors to take it off the market because they believe it to be undervalued. Now, it is possible that the chart was reflecting moves based leaked news from these negotiations which it is now apparent have been going on a while. The big move up that initiated the chart prediction was when activist investors said they believed the company should be worth at least @407p - this was probably a price discussed during the negotiations with hindsight. The point is the software picked up on some strange upward pressure on the share price and made a prediction of it going to around max @417p (from memory). In fact the price of @455p was announced and it jumped straight through the range predicted up to @450p. (I was a long term holder and believer in MERL and thought it would be taken over sooner or later and I had a 10 year investment horizon on it, starting about 3 or 4 years ago. I sold 3 of 6 tranches as it rose. Could I really have held off having seen that chart or been alerted that a takeover might be in the offing? I wasn’t expecting one for another 2-4 years at least. Only with hindsight I think. I’m going to make a profit, but i think the company is under priced and am sure those taking it private will be selling it on to a major media/tech firm within a few years at a much more elevated price. Us shareholders will miss out, unfortunately.
Bowman
01 Jul 2019
Bearish "Diamond Top" chart pattern I have often seen the type of prediction / signals you posted. I think with all these types of prediction they should be used in co-ordination with other data, rather than in isolation. Potentially action is then due where several factors come together, so in this case the bearish stance from the IC is reinforced by the chart signal. When I have looked at some of these signals in the past I have experienced rapid changes on a daily basis. Personally I have found the signals too erratic for my use, and often turn out to be exaggerated. I am sure that there are traders who find them useful, but as you say, the lack of statistical evidence of the accuracy of the predictions makes it all a bit of a lottery. This applies not only to the type of signal (pattern) but to the sector or individual share.
Eadwig
01 Jul 2019
Bearish "Diamond Top" chart pattern I have no view on the correctness of the chart and don’t know anything about the company. I’ve just posted up this prediction for the record to see how it plays out. I’ve posted a number of these around which include both a target price and a date range for the target just to see if there are any so-called ‘classic patterns’ that have any kind of degree of accuracy. If some turn out to be, say, 60% correct then maybe I shall start to take more notice of those particular patterns. The one thing that most have in common that is probably useful is that they tend to show a break-out from a previously established trading range on a significant amount of volume and that is often a sign that a share is about to move to another price range with different levels of support and resistance. The latter terms are also T/A terms but I’m fairly convinced that they do have meaning (I.e. not just reading tea leaves) because they often represent previous buying or selling levels. E.g. I know from my own actions that I have sometimes been underwater for a time in a specific share and then have sold out at break-even with relief. That kind of action sets a resistance level. Another example: Support and resistance levels seem to have very strong significance when a placement has previously taken place at a certain price, and I’ve witnessed prices falling almost to placement levels time and again, but not below those levels (if nothing has significantly changed with the business). If the price does fall below a previous placement level that is almost always a signal that the stock will fall further to some new, unspecified level before it finds a new trading range. I’ve tried to collect actual data on this and these predictive charts specifically, but its a helluva long haul to get enough together to be statistically significant. What I have noticed is that predictions in some sectors or possibly with some sizes of company also seems to alter the accuracy rate of outcomes, which makes for the need for an even bigger data set to get anything statistically significant. I’m hopeful that someone may spot this stuff and actually carry out an analysis of historic example that have already played out, which is surely the best way to test. I suspect Recognia must do this themselves though and probably are continually tweaking their algorithms (that’s what I would be doing) which in turn makes it difficult to build up a valid historic data set without access to the current algorithm and the ability to run it on historic data.
Bowman
01 Jul 2019
Bearish "Diamond Top" chart pattern Potentially one also needs to look at the longer-term chart, which shows that CRST has been dropping for some time, although it did recover somewhat from the Oct 2018 lows. I sold out of the last of my holdings @ 370 last September, and I do not think there is much to tempt me back again. The Investors Chronicle reviewed CRST at the beginning of June, and recommended a “Sell†@ 357; the conclusion from their article is shown below. "IC View Build cost inflation is expected to persist throughout the rest of the year and, together with flat prices, poses the risk of further margin erosion. However, given the continued pressures on higher value areas of the UK housing market, the switch to a less capital intensive model looks sensible. The shares trade broadly in line with forecast net assets at the October 2020 year-end, in line with their two-year historical average. We do not think that reflects the persistent pressure on margins. Sell. Last IC View: Sell, 368p, 15 May 2019" Crest.png1198x900 89.6 KB
Eadwig
01 Jul 2019
Bearish "Diamond Top" chart pattern Crest Nicholson Holdings PLC forms bearish “Diamond Top†chart pattern Jun 24, 2019 Recognia has detected a “Diamond Top†chart pattern formed on Crest Nicholson Holdings PLC (CRST:LSE). This bearish signal indicates that the stock price may fall from the close of 347.80 to the range of 283.00 - 296.00. The pattern formed over 98 days which is roughly the period of time in which the target price range may be achieved, according to standard principles of technical analysis. Tells Me: The price seems to have reached a top, showing signs of reversal as it has broken downward after a period of uncertainty or consolidation. The Diamond Top pattern begins during an uptrend as prices create higher highs and lower lows in a broadening pattern. Then the trading range gradually narrows after the highs peak and the lows start trending upward. When the price breaks downward out of the diamonds boundary lines, it marks a significant reversal to a new downtrend. This bearish pattern can be seen on the following chart and was detected by Trading Central proprietary pattern recognition technology.
madealotnot
28 Sep 2018
Bovis fall Why is bovis down today? Xd, poor results. News on this site used to easily available. Where is this now? Do you have to go to another site?
red fox
09 Mar 2018
Motley Fool article Motley Fool article 8 March'When I look at Bovis Homes Group (LSE: BVS), I see another big dividend payer whose shares appear to be unfairly overlooked. Bovis did go through a bad patch and lost a fair bit of customer confidence, but under a new boss and the implementation of a turnaround plan, we’re looking at forecasts for a return to earnings growth this year after two years of falls. Analysts are predicting a 37% EPS gain for the current year, with a further 16% pencilled in for 2019. With 2017 results, delivered on 1 March, chief executive Greg Fitzgerald said: “In 2018, we will deliver a controlled increase in volume, continue to build upon our high level of customer service, drive profitability, and complete our balance sheet optimisation.“And though the firm saw a fall in profits, the average selling price rose by 7%, and year-end net cash soared by 275% to £144.9m.Crucially, the dividend was lifted 6% to 47.5p per share, for a yield of 4.1% on the current share price of around the 1,170p level.And in 2018, the company will be embarking on a plan to return total special dividends of £180m over the three years to 2020. That’s equivalent to around 134p per share, and should boost income very nicely in 2018 and beyond.The total forecast for this year of 98p would provide a yield of 8.4%, rising to 8.8% if 2019 predictions come good.P/E multiples dropping to around 10 look too cheap for a company generating these levels of cash and paying such big dividends.'[link]
red fox
01 Mar 2018
Good Results Profits in-line with expectations, full year dividend up 6% to 47.5p, and the board confirmed its intention to pay a special dividend of around 45p towards the end of the year and targets making further payments in 2019 and 2020.Hopefully Bovis is now back on track.
II Editor
12 Jan 2018
NEW ARTICLE: FTSE 100 record and oil boom "European equity markets are higher Friday, following on from new US highs and the 14th straight day of gains in Hong Kong.Recent market highs have been based on expectations of higher global growth and increased corporate earnings, so the start ..."[link]
II Editor
05 Apr 2017
NEW ARTICLE: Bovis Homes shares 'cheap' after CEO coup "It looks like the housebuilding sector will have to wait a little longer for further consolidation in an industry starved of activity for a decade, after news that a deal between LSE:BVS:Bovis Homes and LSE:GFRD:Galliford Try is definitely ..."[link]
city watcher
20 Mar 2017
Builder's Bricks - MBH Investor's in this field may also like to take a look at 'Michelmersh Bricks' that posted their finals today and cheered investors by doubling their dividend (Final) to 2p. Also now going to pay a interim dividend.[link]
pb123
14 Mar 2017
is this a hostile take over attempt? what do all these RNS 's mean?
Actinidia
13 Mar 2017
Re: Takeover bit by Galliford Try - comm... Me too. If it goes up another 8% tomorrow, I will have broken even, and will be out in case it drops back again.
Buy and hold
13 Mar 2017
Re: takeover/merger bids The offers are opportunistic. Bovis is going through a bad time, but has a strong enough balance sheet and trading position to ride out the storm. A takeover or merger might happen, but I can't foresee it for anything under £10 a share.
netman2000
12 Mar 2017
Re: Takeover bit by Galliford Try - comments... If anyone comes back with more money then I might manage to break even on this, I'm holding at just under 11GBP. Comment in today's Sunday Times. See also [link]
