gretel
09 Dec 2014
BVM remain cheap on forecasts imo Confirmation of the latest forecasts: 2014 : 0.5p EPS (P/E of 9), 0.12p dividend (a 2.7% yield) 2015 : 0.6p EPS,(P/E of 7.5), 0.15p dividend (a 3.3% yield)
MartinRTucker
08 Dec 2014
Re: Growth Think your facts are a little skewed there. BVM were around the 7p mark beofre they bought Touchstar. upon completion, they shot up to around 20p, then fell back due to a World recesion. In the meantime, they bought a software company called Novo, whic hwas complimentary to Touchstar, followed up by the recent Feedback data, AFS are pretty much giving Feedback more customer base within their market. Give it time for consolidation and chances are AFS and Feedback will merge to become one with cost cutting from overheads. to me that sounds like a bloody good investment and business accusition. BVM are growing by accusition, they have not made a loss in the last 5 years but have grown at a steady pace. Who knows what will happen over the next 5 years? Buyout? maybe! DYOR!
investor678
08 Dec 2014
Re: Growth You got it! Well done Meanbugger.... I am afraid May Sell and perhaps more so then he, Mollysboy have no understanding about acquisions and cash. BVM they bought Feedback, which ran a loss in the year prior to acquisition and then turned it around and it is now an a real asset to the group....hence why this smaller acquisition has been made - if they were busy running Feedback into the ground why on earth would they invest in the sector by adding growth to it!
Meanbugger
07 Dec 2014
Re: Growth Mollysboy, in this type of business the cash in the balance sheet is often the upfront annual maintenance charges that have been collected. There is a corresponding liability of up to 12 months servicing that may be required. On the acquisition there will be an assumption for how much cash there will be and if it is any different there will be a £1 for £1 adjustment. This is absolutely normal. As regards the vendor's tax position, no doubt he will qualify for entrepreneur's relief and will only pay 10% tax on any capital gain.The acquisition looks fine to me. At some stage Belgravium will be taken over and we'll all be very happy.
mollysboy
05 Dec 2014
Re: Growth May_sellI am with you again on this stock.Every year towards the year end we get an acquisition which they integrate and run into the ground; and nearly always with some bad news hidden away. It wasn't that long ago their shares were at 18p. They acquired Touch and they rose a little before falling. So, they acquired a software company and they rose and then fell away. Then again and now again.In the RNS it also stated "Pre-tax profits have also been stronger in the second half with the full year expected to be around 50 per cent. higher than last year's profit of £336,000 before exceptionals. This outcome for the year, which is below market expectations, has been affected by a material contract which had been expected to have been confirmed and delivered prior to the year-end. This contract award however, has been deferred and is now expected to fall in the first half of next year."They are paying £330k for a business whose turnover is £729k (to last January 31st) and whose pre tax profit is £29k. They are also paying £1 for each £1 of cash. Why? The shareholders of AFS get taxed at their higher rate of personal tax for selling the cash. Why not pay a dividend and pay 32.5% cash instead of 40% or 45%.BVM must be paying over the odds and needing the cash for working capital. There is no other reason for leaving cash in the business.
may_sell
05 Dec 2014
Re: Growth OK, mobile data and online asset tracking etc (I was first working with commercial GPS in the mid 90s) - not in the same market as Belgravium. However, this is a now a mature area of business where, as would be expected, margins are being squeezed and a consolidation amount of consolidation is going on, e.g.[link] take on the Eadie/Belgravium history is not the same as yours, but I am happy to agree to differ.Maybe there might be another buyout attempt for Belgravium by a company with deeper pockets, however it's difficult too see that this would realistically put much of a premium on the current share price. The Feedback data and AFS acquistions just seem to be heading off in a different direction when times look to be tough ahead.Finally, it's a strange argument to suggest that a £700k company is unlikely to have an acceptable website (many much smaller companies manage to perfectly well), yet at the same time to be so significant that Belgravium should be spending time and money to acquire it? To me it is a worrying sign, particularly as the last website update was made in 2008.
investor678
05 Dec 2014
Re: Growth I am calm.....No longer young and petulant, but I a man of reason. 1988 Eadie?.....GPRS enabled mobile computing did not exist!.......this was when the business bashed bits of metal....... it moved out of that successfully and developed itself into a tech based business.......if they had not your shares would now be nil value. The people running the business are obviously not the same people....and indeed I think Kembery was the one that spun all of those metal companies out of the PLC......Following this, the build up the Bradford business allowed significant cash generation to take the business forward from a £3-4m business......so maybe they are just getting a little more diversified to reduce risk in one particular market. PE ratio may increase in line with its sector if people stopped damning the shares on bulletin boards. May Sell, what line of business are or were you in?
may_sell
04 Dec 2014
Re: Growth You should calm down a little, click on Chart since 04/01/88 and ask yourself if anything is really going to change given the current management; what I really would like to see is a significant shake-up so that the Eadie history doesn't just repeat itself. At the present rate, they seem headed the same way - and another regeneration could prove fatal.
investor678
04 Dec 2014
Re: Growth I have to point out to May Sell again.......that he is un realsitic albeit he believes he is.In the real world a business of only £700k is unlikely to have a web site that is upto date and at a level as Mr Realistic expects. Give thema break, AFS and BVM.Please note the there is a strategy here....access and security market, software and hardware and a complete solution...a new market when they acquired Feedback....and that has been succesful! (but I expect you damned that as well!!!)How many shares do you have...I will buy them if it stops you pouring cold water over a business that has increased profits year on year for last 3. If it is not fast enough, sell them!
may_sell
04 Dec 2014
Re: Growth Exactly, the first priority for Belgravium should be to take down the website ASAP. Might save a few quid in hosting fees...[link] how long the lease is for their "modern premises" in Henley-in-Arden - pity they didn't stay above the "garage workshop". Probably got a few white vans to sell!
Another Jacko
04 Dec 2014
Re: Growth I have to say the AFS website is not all that impressive and a bit amateurish. I found the phrase "piece of mind" on there!We just have to hope that the business itself is not as tinpot as the website suggests.One thing that bothers me about BVM buying all of these small companies is that they are getting to the stage where they are operating out of multiple small sites. Surely at some stage in the future they've got to look at a rationalisation of operating sites?
gretel
04 Dec 2014
Re: Acquisition and trading update Nice bounce now.It's worth noting that for a £500,000 cost, BVM are also obtaining £170,000 of cash, as well as £0.73m turnover, a new customer base and a profitable operation which could achieve say £100k-£150k PBT after integration with Feedback and stripping out "private company costs".
may_sell
04 Dec 2014
Re: Growth I prefer to bring a touch of reality occasionally to counter wild optimism Martin!Am still holding - as not really worth selling. Just wish Belgravium's acquisitions were more forward looking. Corporate recovery is no bad thing, but does AFS really do anything for them? I was being far too polite in describing the AFS website as rudimentary; a complete joke is more appropriate: e.g. the two 2008 'latest' news items on the home page are completely ungrammatical (not to mention 'o' instead of '°') and duplicated - with non-existent links to boot. If the directors of AFS have cared that little about their shop window for so long, what does it say about the value of the business?
MartinRTucker
04 Dec 2014
Growth Nice to see Belgravium grow by accusition. Surprised to see the share price drop on this news. Should be the opposite? Lets see what happens. Im holding, lets see what happens next year.Maysell, are you still holding onto this? Loving the negativity. You may be right, but I think there is a good chance that your not.
gretel
04 Dec 2014
Re: Acquisition and trading update WH Ireland's new forecasts are exactly as per my calculations, at 0.5p EPS for the year about to end.They've prudently reduced the 2015 forecast to 0.6p EPS - despite the new acquisition and the material contract pushed back to next year.So it's possible that next year could outperform significantly assuming core trading holds up. Divi forecasts are 0.12p and 0.15p respectively.WHI have now done what they should have done for 2014 - put in prudent forecasts with a decent chance of being met or exceeded. BVM achieved a 50% jump in PBT this year which would normally have pleased the markets, but because WHI's forecasts were even more demanding this didn't happen. At 4.25p, on a historic P/E of 8.4 and a 2015 P/E of 7, BVM's valuation is "hardly demanding" as WHI put it.
