Jaro8
23 Feb 2018
Re: why the sustained drop in SP? Hi Freedom 35I agree this a great share which appears to be consolidating after a fast rise. I wonder if it also due to lower $ as profits from US will decrease.re SUK2 i have purchased these in the past but not at this FTSE level. My problem is that they are for short terms(weeks) as the 2 x is due to options which have a time cost. Also if the £ decreases(say Brexit) then a lot of components of the FTSE will increase earnings so SUK2 does not do a lot of protection. Not sure of an alternative for what you are looking for apart from using City Index etc or an ETF short of FTSE 350.Not sure if this is useful.
missmolly
18 Feb 2018
This from 4Traders re: BUR Strengths• Analysts expect a sharply increasing business volume for the group, with high growth rates in the coming years.• The group's activity appears highly profitable thanks to its outperforming net margins.• The group usually releases upbeat results with huge surprise rates.• Over the past year, analysts have regularly revised upwards their sales forecast for the company.• For the last twelve months, analysts have been gradually revising upwards their EPS forecast for the upcoming fiscal year.• Analysts covering this company mostly recommend stock overweighting or purchase.• The stock is in a well-established, long-term rising trend above the technical support level at 960.5 GBpWeaknesses• Prospects from analysts covering the stock are not consistent. Such dispersed sales estimates confirm the poor visibility into the group's activity.• The company is not the most generous with respect to shareholders' compensation.
missmolly
18 Feb 2018
Re: why the sustained drop in SP? Hi Freedom,Your strategy for selling half when a share doubles is undoubtedly a good move, patience and discipline required there! I should do similar...I'll look into SUK2, however it seems more like a straight gamble, predicting the future of the markets in 'normal' times but sort of seems like normal is yesteryears word.I had been thinking that sterling would not be so strong as it is with the Brexit farce and incompetent Govt. and all political parties, I still think it will go down however from these highs.Good luck with all your strategies,Molly
freedom-thirty5
16 Feb 2018
Re: why the sustained drop in SP? Cheers, miss molly.Yes I did my homework on this one, and have not even thought about selling it. My usual goal with individual stock picks is to sell half when it has doubled in price. Hopefully that day will come here.SUK2 is a 2x short FTSE100 ETF. If the index drops by x% then the etf increases in value by 2X%.There are also long multiplier ETFs for example UK3L which gives 3x value movement should on the FTSE100. So if the ftse goes up 2% then the fund goes up 6% and vice versa.They can be handy.
missmolly
16 Feb 2018
Re: why the sustained drop in SP? Hello again Freedom,Over a couple of years this has been very good, it does go up/down a lot, but over time steadily up, someone referred to it as a new asset class which I agree with, I think their a smart bunch and they are expanding at a rapid rate, seem to be doing the right things - but I guess people 'play' this one too, sell on the highs, buy on lows as it's fairly predictable, a bit like IQE. (the only bit in common thank god). and being America based also may have suffered from the recent correction, results soon and I don't think you will be disappointed. A long term hold for me.I do hope you do well with it, I think you will if you hold, just probably bought at the wrong time. It's supposed to be the third largest on AIM by capital.What is SUK2 - sounds rude!
freedom-thirty5
16 Feb 2018
Re: why the sustained drop in SP? Probably because I invested in BUR. The downtrend began then. Sorry about that.Still, despite claims of this share having “low correlation” to the wider market, it appears to have behaved very similarly to everything else in my portfolio over the last 7 or 8 weeks.The blip seems to be running its course now, and all the same shares I’m looking at seem to be bottoming and turning back up. Hopefully this one will do the same. It’s almost a decade since the last proper recession here in the UK. The longer it is, the more likely it becomes. I intend to move into SUK2 and similar ETFs when the time comes.
missmolly
16 Feb 2018
posts on adfvn - tree shake before results 14 march Some posters saying that brokers are trying to force the SP down so they can buy more just before expected good results in just over a month's time
missmolly
16 Feb 2018
Shares magazine today Shares magazine today: We expect more investors will flock to litigation financier Burford Capital The company is particularly appealing to investors seeking assets with low correlation to markets AIM-quoted Burford Capital (BUR:AIM) may interest investors seeking assets with low correlation to markets. It is a leading operator in the nascent area of litigation finance. Essentially it provides cash to help fund lawsuits and then takes a proportion of any resulting compensation award. It invests its own money in this activity (from cash raised in debt and equity issues as well as recycling funds secured from successful lawsuits). Burford also acts as an asset manager investing on behalf of third parties. Rapid growth has been recognised by the market such that the shares are up more than eight-fold in the last three years and five-and-a-half times in the last two years. WHY WE HAVE TURNED BULLISH We turned cautious on the stock in December 2017 on valuation grounds but after a period of weakness during the market correction, we now believe investors should give the shares another look. The company trades on a price to earnings ratio of 14.7 and yields 1.6%, based on forecasts from stockbroker Numis. Its ability to deliver substantial returns which are not linked to either the performance of other asset classes or the economic backdrop could find favour in the current environment. A FAST-GROWING INDUSTRY Lawyers appear to be increasingly comfortable with the concept of third party financing. The potential of this market is reflected in the $1.34bn worth of investment Burford committed to its different areas of activity in 2017. This is nearly as much as it had put up since its inception in 2009 through to June 2017 and, in addition, reflects a change to its business model since it acquired Gerchen Keller, a deal announced in December 2016. This deal helped the company establish its asset management arm and as chief executive Chris Bogart tells Shares ‘added access to a deep pool of capital’ to help grow Burford. In the future this part of the business could also deliver significant management and performance fees which could help smooth out the less predictable returns from court payments. Numis analyst Jonathan Goslin reckons fees could total $40m a year based on the firm’s current returns on capital. EXCEPTIONAL RETURNS Goslin calculates a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 52%; for context a firm delivering consistent returns on capital above 15% is usually considered a good quality business. Burford has expanded into legal insurance and loans to law firms as well as investing in lawsuit defences in return for a pre-determined fee if successful. For now, the company still derives most of its profit from investing its own cash. It recently raised $180m of new funds in the first dollar-denominated bond issue on London’s retail bond platform ORB. Bogart rejects the concerns over a lack of earnings visibility and limited transparency on live cases, arguing Burford is no different to any large provider of commercial finance. The confidentiality agreements which are a standard feature in legal settlements prevent it detailing returns from every individual case. Yet the company can point to several examples to show how historic investments have played out and the average duration of cases the firm invests in is fairly limited at less than two years. Some insight has also been provided by sales of interests in its Petersen V Argentina case. This concerns Spanish investment group Petersen which faced insolvency after the Argentine government summarily renationalised oil company YPF. The sums received for these stakes to date imply the asset could be worth several multiples of Burford’s initial investment of $18m. BARRIERS TO ENTRY The barriers to entry into this market, namely scale and reputation, are, according to Bogart, reflected in the fact that Burford’s competition comes principally from established players rather than new en
missmolly
16 Feb 2018
why the sustained drop in SP? Does anyone have a view as to why the SP is dropping for quite a while after hitting 1280 on the 1st Jan. Just profit taking and the 'correction' in all stocks?I will be grateful for opinions as I'm sure many would with this stock being a bit different to the norm.And this board does need a bit of oomph!All best,Molly
Tax Inspector
22 Jan 2018
Investors Chronicle - Article Burford Capital (BUR:1,205p), a global finance provider focused on investing in litigation cases, is now one of the largest companies listed on Aim, with a market capitalisation of £2.5bn, a reflection of the 725 per cent rise in its share price since the summer of 2015 when I initiated coverage ('Legal eagles', 8 Jun 2015). I last advised top-slicing your holdings when the shares hit a record high of 895p ('Top-slicing and running profits', 26 Jun 2017). It paid to maintain a financial interest as the share price is up another third since then, and within touching distance of last autumn’s all-time high of 1,258p. Ahead of full-year results on Wednesday 14 March, this looks an opportune time to reassess the investment case.In a pre-close trading update, the directors revealed that new commitments made to litigation funding cases more than trebled to $1.34bn (£970m) last year. This implies Burford made $855m (£620m) of new commitments in the second half of 2017, up from $488m in the first half, and $488m for the whole of 2016. As analysts at investment bank Berenberg Capital rightly point out, this suggests the company, which is the leading litigation funding player in a litigation market worth $800bn in annual revenue, has had no problem finding sufficient opportunities to deploy its capital. It also augurs well for future profits. That’s because new cases typically take two years to complete, so, given the high returns on capital Burford makes, its high success rates and portfolio diversification which mitigate risk, it can realistically expect a hefty financial return on these new commitments.It also makes sense for the company to consider tapping the debt market again to recycle low-cost capital into funding potentially high return litigation cases. Having raised a total of $519m through three London Stock Exchange retail bond issues since 2014, all of which are trading above par, the company is currently holding meetings with fixed income investors.Importantly, results for the 2017 financial year are going to be eye-wateringly good. Analysts at Numis Securities predict a near doubling of pre-tax profit to $218m on revenue of $313m, up from $163m in 2016, to produce EPS of 96.6¢, or 75p based on the average sterling dollar exchange rate last year. Part of the profit booked reflects the gain Burford realised by selling off 25 per cent of its economic interest in the multibillion-dollar Petersen legal case relating to the 2012 expropriation by Argentina of a majority interest in YPF, the New York Stock Exchange-listed energy company formerly owned by Repsol, the Spanish energy major. The $106m realised equates to six times its original investment, and analysts believe its retained economic entitlement could be worth $1.25bn (£905m) in the event of a successful outcome in the courts.In addition, Burford had a favourable decision in an arbitration relating to the claim by Teinver S.A. and others against Argentina in connection with the country’s expropriation of two airlines. The arbitration tribunal ruled against Argentina, requiring it to pay $324m in damages, of which Burford’s entitlement is estimated to be $140m, or 10 times higher than its original investment of $13m in the case. Burford’s entitlement represents over 4.5 times the $30m carrying value of its investment in the company’s half-year accounts to the end June 2017. Rated on 16 times likely earnings, I would run your bumper profits.
Volsung
18 Jan 2018
Telegraph [link] of Burford
missmolly
10 Jan 2018
From Citywire - Good news... Burford Capital eyes bond launch to support legal boom Gavin Lumsden / 10 Jan, 2018 at 12:43 Burford Capital eyes bond launch to support legal boom Burford Capital (BURF), the legal financier backed by fund managers Mark Barnett and Neil Woodford, is eyeing another retail bond issue to support its rapid growth.The AIM-listed investment company has revealed it made $1.3 billion in new commitments to legal cases last year, more than treble the level of 2016.‘Given the growth Burford has experienced, the company intends to hold meetings with fixed income investors. A bond issue may follow subject to market conditions and pricing,’ it said.Burford has issued three retail bonds on the London Stock Exchange’s ORB market in recent years, with the last raising £175 million in an oversubscribed offer in May 2017. The bond pays a 5% annual coupon and matures in December 2026.Burford shares jumped over 5% to £11.62 at the signal the company, which takes a cut from payouts of cases it funds, could continue the expansion that has propelled the stock to a 12-fold increase in the past five years.Today's rise ends a period of weakness since the company reshuffled its management last month.Phil Dobbin, equity analyst at Jefferies, maintained his ‘buy’ recommendation and price target of £13 for the shares. He said the figures showed a steady increase in single case financing in the second half of the year but a five-fold rise in portfolio finance, which involves multiple claims and therefore is less vulnerable to a single negative verdict.‘This also implies that Burford and its managed fund are gaining further traction with major law firms and corporates with large legal departments, the gatekeepers to the market, and the main targets of Burford’s marketing efforts,’ Dobbin said.Invesco Perpetual is the biggest investor in the £2.3 billion company with a 22.7% stake mostly held in Barnett’s High Income and Income funds. Woodford, Barnett’s predecessor, owns 11.4% in his Equity Income fund, according to Thomson Reuters. The stock has been a positive highlight for both fund managers who have endured a difficult 12 months.
ookyfly
10 Jan 2018
RNS Tantalising. Promising but no details re results. We have to wait until April.Looking good.
oldjoe1
27 Dec 2017
BURFORD CAPITAL BUR....TIPPED. BUR buample from ford Capital looks interesting technically and got a good write up on ample from Edmond Jackson | Sun, 24th December 2017 - 12
0....Ive taken a chunk just ove a hour ago. <b><u>Burford Capital</b></u><b>I drew attention to this AIM-listed litigation finance specialist (BUR) at 123p in 2015: a “special situation” since legal funding is independent of business cycles, Burford was evolving as a market-leader (principally a US-based firm) yet its shares were below-radar. In a habit of nearly doubling annual profits, at 570p last December it appeared well-placed for 2017 and has maintained its soaring chart to a recent high of 1244p, currently 1125p where it trades on a forward P/E in the mid-twenties, yielding 0.8%. I’d expect consolidation from here given the story is now better-known and new investors may not appreciate how lumpy, litigation finance profits can be; also there is no meaningful yield despite progressive dividends, in support. Yet in the long run Burford is prime-positioned in an international growth industry that's more stable than retail fashion or technology. Yes its stock appears to reflect animal spirits of a mature bull market, and is exposed to a market slide, but would then be a priority to buy/add. The chief risk would be an extensive falling out among senior management, that fragments the firm with key talent leaving – but there’s no such sign as yet. Buy on weakness.</b>[link]
late developer
05 Dec 2017
correction Apologies for my last post . Should have read £13 not £30
