dancinglilly
02 Mar 2016
Re: Share price rise/Brexit Let's hope the share price recovery has legs. I am not sure fundamentals for the mining sector has improved. Yes, mining companies are taking measures to tackle the miserable conditions by cutting back on capital investment but until such time when there is a recovery in the sector with increased use of commodities it will be hard to see a sustainable share price recovery. The markets are always ahead of the game though so I am hoping they have seen the bottom and are now marking the whole sector up. I am not aware how brexit will help the mining sector or indeed the economy in general. I find the whole debate baseless and without any facts to sway me in the direction of the leave campaign.
xstar
02 Mar 2016
Share price rise/Brexit ...160 ish to 210 ish ... = + 30% ish in the last six weeks..but still need more to break even..but I find this partial recovery reassuring..Good luck out there.. maybe better if and when Brexit occurs?...is there a vote/survey on this site..?xstar
Hardboy
05 Feb 2016
200 Wow - NAV above 200 - it's a while since it's been to that heady height.
investorprotestor
12 Jan 2016
Re: Fresnillo EPS.. Capitulation may be round the corner - I think if we have a giant drop from here, there would be an opportunity to get in at a long term low. Note that Glencore is hiving off unprofitable businesses and smelters for copper are down to 1 in the US. Also bond yields for mining debt is spiking. All the signs are in place that trouble is coming.
dancinglilly
23 Dec 2015
Re: Fresnillo EPS.. IP....thanks for your response.
investorprotestor
22 Dec 2015
Re: Fresnillo EPS.. Also read my post further down on the bond market - which could come into play.
investorprotestor
22 Dec 2015
Re: Fresnillo EPS.. It was in the first post of this thread. I forecast a big drop in some of the main underlying shares based on a number of factors - fundamentals - extrapolating capitulation P/E and yield values and charting. I forgot to include goodwill for very good companies such as Fres (but I would have included Glencore in that league also). I'm bullish v long term - however, I wouldn't be surprised to see my original forecast pan out. Even so I'm considering doubling down at around 160 and then again at 80p if it goes that far. In 3 years it should recover well and I would have a substantial profit. We are in for some pain first though! All IMHO - Good Luck - IP.
dancinglilly
19 Dec 2015
Re: Fresnillo EPS.. investorprotestor......I would be interested to know the basis for your prediction. Is it based on technical (charts?) analysis? or based on fundamentals? You are predicting a 50%+ drop from what is already an incredibly damaged SP. I believe the dividends will be halved at the very least based on what's happening in the sector but this should be reflected in the share price. There is also the fact that the SP is already discounted by 10%. On a wider note, as it's traditional at the year end, there will be quite a few contrarion investment analysts tipping this IT yet again. It's already mentioned in a couple of investment magazines along with Anglo American to bounce back significantly in 2016. One of these years they will get it right and then have a good boast about it. Best wishes to all investing in this IT.
investorprotestor
14 Dec 2015
Re: Fresnillo EPS.. Just be prepared for BRWM SP of 70-80p over the next 2 years. I'm sticking with what I have got for the time being.
strapuk
10 Dec 2015
Re: Yield? Same here. Been dripping into this every month in my ISA for about 4 years now. Keep thinking I should stop, but then the price falls again and I convince myself "pound cost averaging" will save the day when (if!) sentiment changes for the better. A fool and his money etc etc.
Hardboy
09 Dec 2015
Re: Yield? "I wouldn't have the nerve to invest a big lump sum as it is extremely scary out there"I assume you mean you wouldn't invest a big lump sum into this fund. Of course this raises an interesting question: if people are lucky enough to have a lump sum to invest - where is the best place for it? Nothing looks particularly safe at the moment, but who would leave it in a bank earning less than 1%?Life is a lot simpler when you don't have money!"So, perhaps it's time to be brave"We all know the Warren Buffett quote: "Be brave when others are fearful..." It may often be sound advice, but not always.
Dingledangle
09 Dec 2015
Re: Yield? I have the same 'feeling' as I had with the banks 7 years ago. Barclay's is not back to pre-recession levels, but is much higher than the 60p you could have paid in the crash. At that time you needed to have nerve to put money on banks as you didn't know which would be the next to go out of business. This time a trust spreads the risk as there are bound to be bankruptcies in this environment. And yet if all these miners are cutting back heavily, there could be a significant rebound if there is a sudden shortage of supply. This may happen as next years numbers might show.
dancinglilly
09 Dec 2015
Re: Yield? lotcangorong....I wouldn't have the nerve to invest a big lump sum as it is extremely scary out there. But then again I have been drip feeding for years into this IT and have suffered significant losses, particulary in the last couple of years. So, perhaps it's time to be brave. Good luck whatever you decide.dingledangle.....I hope you are right. As I have said above this is the biggest loser I have had in my portfolio to such an extent that I find the whole thing embarassing. The fact that I have never had the nerve to cut my losses at some point and have kept investing throughout this gut-wrenching period.
Dingledangle
09 Dec 2015
Re: Yield? I have a feeling we are at or very near the bottom of the cycle. I think investors will view 2017 as a year of improvement in global growth, which at the moment seems 2 years away, but come January will only be 12 months away. A few more days of battering the miners might mark the low point. Lets see.
lotcangorong
09 Dec 2015
Re: Yield? Apart from the yield, just look at the five-year chart. At some point this trust will grow again, probably in quite a spectacular way. If I had the nerve I would put quite a lot of my SIPP into this right now.
