brownsfriend
01 Mar 2017
Why the big drop? HB comment Thank you HB. My calculations were based on SP (mid market) at 372.50 as at 1.00pm on 24th and NAV at 437.27 (income incl) as published at 12.09pm. A difference of 64.77p which is a discount of 14.81% to the SP at the time according to my calculations. If you take a capital only NAV then the discount is less. I agree the discount has been in the order of 10% for most of 2016although as mentioned was 15% in early Jan. The point I was making was that the reaction to the divi drop was well overdone and was forecast. I acted on this and topped up at 349p as IMHO commodity prices will increase with increased infrastructure spends in US.
wangbaudan
01 Mar 2017
Re: Why the big drop? I am happy!I have relised that I do not have the vaguest idea whether this IT price will be higher or lower tomorrow/next month/next year. I have no idea what commodity prices will do in the next year. I do not have a notion what the Chinese economy will do. I haven't the vaguest whether the discount will rise, fall or disappear.The good news is that that means that I can relax without spending hours on research and leave well alone - surely the way we should treat ITs
hedley5
28 Feb 2017
Re: Why the big drop? Personally I'm not sure if the discount is calculated from the NAV plus or minus the income. The current discount is approx the trailing 12 month average though. The share price has dropped to the 50day moving average which has acted as support in the past. The share price has trended up in a channel for the last 12 months, and is currently at the bottom. My stop loss is 350p, but if the trend is intact it should rebound from this point.
Hardboy
28 Feb 2017
Re: Why the big drop? Brownsfriend,(Not Gordon I hope.) On Friday you said, "discount of share price has just widened to about 15%"I suspect you were taking the previous day's NAV for the calculation. On the recent high (13th Feb) SP = 404.25 - NAV = 443.18 - Discount 9.63%Last Monday (20th Feb) SP = 393.25 - NAV = 435.55 - Discount 10.76%Last Friday (24th Feb) SP = 374.75 - NAV = 419.57 - Discount 11.96%Yesterday (27th Feb) SP = 372.75 - NAV = 414.88 - Discount 11.30%.So you're right the discount has widened slightly; but usually it seems to be around 10%.
MJS1234
28 Feb 2017
Citywire article is positive Worth a read.GLTAMJS[link]
investorprotestor
28 Feb 2017
Re: Sold half on massive gains.. Timing is luck - so I think myself lucky - I'm kicking myself for not also buying a lottery ticket on 10th Feb! Anyway if we see a big (40-50%) retracement from the peak im going back in. Trump needs to come up trumps on his huge infrastructure spending promise - otherwise its going back down to 200p.
xstar
28 Feb 2017
Fear or Greed..... ?...I am feeling that I may have reached my tipping point.These shares have done well for me over the last 2-3 years.To guard against losing back all of the gains,I am going to sell off about 10% of my holding...with a view to repurchasing if there is a further fall, as long term they are still a good risk,inmy opinion.xstar
hedley5
25 Feb 2017
Re: Why the big drop? Short term it was looking overbought at 4£. The price has headed back to its support at the 50d MA, which was approx 3.66£, and almost the bottom of the channel it has been in for 12 months. There maybe a few down days next week. Its at this point forward it will showing up as one of the best performing funds over 1 year which will probably draw in the small investor.The decrease in divi was already known of and expected. Yesterday was probably a good topping up point. If it drops below 3.50 I will rethink. Looking at the price action on a 10 yr chart is reassuring. Medium to long term this has got to be a strong buy IMO.
wangbaudan
24 Feb 2017
Re: Why the big drop? Agree that this looks more like a buying op than anything else and cannot see any reason for the drop. A responsible attitude to dividends I always see as a plus point. Not sure why they are increasing from two to four payouts a year but that is not new info. As for the future well that depends on commodity prices and no one knows where they are going so would add if I wasn't already overweight here
brownsfriend
24 Feb 2017
Why the big drop? Yield likely to be in the order of 3.5% for coming year at todays share price - not quite so appealing for income seekers but still a useful level if capital growth is investment aim. This readjustment was to be expected and the share price has rather overeacted IMHO. Perhaps a useful topping up point as discount of share price has just widened to about 15% - it was at this level at the start of 2016 and narrowed as the year progressed and the SP went skyward.
brownsfriend
24 Feb 2017
Why the big drop? Cutting of divis in holding resulting in reduced income - explained in annual report below" The Directors are recommending the payment of a final dividend of 9.00p per share for the year ended 31 December 2016 (2015: 14.00p). This, together with the interim dividend of 4.00p per share (2015: 7.00p), makes a total of 13.00p per share (2015: 21.00p). The final payment will be made on 12 May 2017 to shareholders on the Company?s register on 17 March 2017, the ex-dividend date being 16 March 2017.We mentioned in the half yearly financial report that the Board would be increasing the frequency of dividend payments from twice to four times a year. It is intended that dividends will be announced in February, May, August and November and are expected to be paid no later than May, June, September and December in each relevant year. The Company will declare its first interim dividend in May 2017 to be paid no later than June 2017.It remains the Board?s intention to seek to distribute substantially all of the income available. Income from ordinary dividends is expected to grow in 2017 as mining companies increase or reinstate dividend payments on the back of improved profitability and reduced balance sheet concerns. The Board?s current target is to declare three dividends of at least 3.00p per share in the year to 31 December 2017 and to recommend a final dividend for approval by shareholders at the Annual General Meeting in 2018. The ability to match or exceed this target will depend on portfolio dividend distributions, currency movements, royalty payments and income from option writing and should not be interpreted as a profit forecast. "
ookyfly
24 Feb 2017
Re: why the big frop today? 'frop' should of course read 'drop'!
ookyfly
24 Feb 2017
why the big frop today? 4+%.
investorprotestor
14 Feb 2017
Re: Sold half on massive gains.. I think it will reach those levels but I don't think the rise will be as fast as we just saw. Also its great to see some comments on III - 10 years ago almost every stock and IT had at least 1 comment a week and a lot 50 or so in a day. I only say this as I think that the 'animal spirits' are returning!
wangbaudan
14 Feb 2017
Re: Sold half on massive gains.. Well, the discount is still nearly 10%, and if you are thinking surely it can't rise any more, click on the 5-year chart. Not suggesting we shall return to those levels - but nothing is impossible (except of course People voting for Brexit and Trump becoming President. Just put £500 on Ms le Pen winning!)
