FRTEB
29 Jul 2015
Re: ...the low.. " ...as low as 150p by next year if any of the above 3 things go the wrong way....200p, if they don't... "---------- ---------- ---------- I'm glad someone else posted that. I have 155 as a worst case low and 205 as a possibly-maybe figure - so more or less the same as yours. I thought my figures might have been way out so didn't post them. Hopefully we are both wrong and this (~245) turns out to be the bottom, but I thought 290 ish might have been the bottom, which is when I bought my first tranche. Not one of my better purchases...
xstar
29 Jul 2015
...the low.. So how low could BRWM go,do we think?I'm guessing...and all I can base this on is the assumptions that:1.The company has no dodgy derivative type risk??2.The holdings will remain in existence,not any?/all? going bust.3.The company is well-run?As the sun is shining at the minute my unerring instinct says :...as low as 150p by next year if any of the above 3 things go the wrong way....200p, if they don't......Followed by a hefty upswing when recovery comes....in less than 6 years..hopefully.
dancinglilly
25 Jul 2015
Re: Is the low being tested I am still not convinced we have hit the bottom and have resisted the urge to average down. I am staying invested though and will eventually buy another tranche once I am convinced, which may be around the 210-220 level. Unless China starts to show real positive signs mining sector will not start the recovery phase. The recent lay offs are a sign of a sector in decline and IMHO will take more pain before we see an upturn.
investorprotestor
24 Jul 2015
Re: Is the low being tested Who knows if we are at the bottom - the last time commodities were crushed they went much, much lower than this; to the point where almost everyone had forgotten about the sector. I wonder if we need to go there first. IP
KEEPING CALM MIKE
24 Jul 2015
Is the low being tested I think we could be at the bottom with this stock, after the recent mark down in some of the commodities of late, and with the discount to NAV, and decent Dividend, could be worth a punt for the mid to long term .Happy to buy in at £2.535 this afternoon .CW, comment , BlackRock World Mining a buy?Perhaps more interesting is BlackRock World Mining (BRWM ), the £452 million mining fund that fell out of favour last year with the damaging write down of its Marampa royalty last year.Its shares fell 5% this week but news of its first payment of an instalment for a $12 million royalty agreement with Avanco Resources in Brazil, one of two remaining royalties, prompted a cautious note of support from Numis Securities yesterday.In a piece of understatement, Charles Cade of Numis said the fund, managed by Evy Hambro, had endured a ‘difficult time’ with its NAV down 15% in the past month, extending the portfolio’s three-year decline to 44%, below the 39% fall in the Euromoney Global Mining index. Noting the discount had widened to 10%, slightly below its average for the year, he said ‘this offers some value for contrarian investors’ with an 8.2% yield that was fully covered by earnings last year. He added:‘It needs to be recognised that mining is a cyclical sector. BRWM has suffered a number of difficult periods for performance in the past, including 1997-98 (NAV fell 41%) and the global financial crisis in 2008 (-56%). Each of these periods was followed by a strong recovery, and BRWM has been able to add significant value over open-ended funds and trackers by adopting a long term investment approach.’. I am sure that some are nursing BIG LOSSES, may be worth hanging on in. K.C.M.
Ru 8746
24 Jul 2015
Re: Sorry not jumping Woaahh! Corporate bond funds? One thing we can say pretty confidently about the future is that WHEN interest rates eventually rise, the capital value of conventional fixed interest investments WILL fall. (Though I'm aware we don't know when rates will rise, or how quickly.) If you really want to buy a corporate bond fund or two, I'd consider looking at the strategic bond sector, where managers have the ability to hedge against interest rate rises (to greater or lesser degrees). Trustnet is a decent resource for looking at open ended funds (and investment trusts) - [link] remember that those that have performed well over the last few years have probably mostly had fairly high allocations to high yield and probably weren't hedging against interest rate rises. If they maintain these positions, it COULD come back to bite them in due course...The M&G team have a nice little blog site about all things bond-related: [link] luck all!
jd1980
24 Jul 2015
Re: Sorry not jumping BN - No worries - FYI i looked but didn't buy ( therefore didn't sell) BRWM. I'm always happy to read contrarian views, some i note some i don't.Thanks for the comments - & if you could suggest any corporate bond funds i'm V happy in investigate
badnews
24 Jul 2015
Re: Sorry not jumping Thunderbird6, if I told you it was a pun you would simply think I was saying that to save face, so I'll settle to say that I stand corrected - many thanks. JD1980, I am admonishing you and advising you, although you should never take advice from people on here! Maybe just take my comments as food for thought. You say that you are looking to hold for the long term, yet you have sold your holding here because it went south in a short period of time. Your comment that you think it will fall further is concerning, because you don't know this for sure, and nor does anybody else. This isn't the mental condition to have when investing for retirement. I am more concerned by your comment that having a small pension pot somehow justified taking on more risk. It doesn't - you're just stacking the odds against yourself.You may be thinking that I am a hypocrite for investing here. Well, yes and no. I already have a pension, and this is firmly placed in a Vanguard Lifestrategy Fund, giving me the market returns at the lowest cost.Placing money here isn't the stuff of pensions. It's for those with a bit of risk capital - play money.You can tell me to sling my hook, but I genuinely feel you would benefit from reading Tim Hale's book to give you some ideas. It is your pension after all, and it's worth putting some reading hours in to give yourself the best possible chance of success
jd1980
23 Jul 2015
Re: Sorry not jumping BN, not sure if your admonishing or advising, I don't plan on trading much, so when I buy I'm looking at long term, I just think this fund will drop further.
old_punter
23 Jul 2015
Re: Sorry not jumping You may be right that the bottom may not have been reached yet but with cyclical plays or generally I think the advice of Buffett and those smarter than myself is its not clever to try and time the bottom or top, more sensible to keep buying on falling prices in the low part of the cycle and the converse. So I have just added yet again, the DT says the yield is 8.2%, can this be right, if so some dividend cut is in the price which I reckon is good news. Maybe I am wrong but I have been at this game too long to learn new tricks.GLA
Thunderbird 6
23 Jul 2015
Re: Sorry not jumping Well, if the bears get in your larder, it probably will end up BARE !
badnews
23 Jul 2015
Re: Sorry not jumping Jd1980, you are firmly on the path to wealth destruction, and for your pension I advise you read Tim Hale - Smarter investing. Allocate your money sensibly and try to resist trading in and out of things, as the cupboard will be bear when you come to retire. BN
jd1980
23 Jul 2015
Sorry not jumping After doing a bit more research i'm walking way from this at the moment. I just cant see Steel production & therefore Iron Ore demand increasing, which indicates to me the raw mat price will continue down. i might revisit if fund nears 210-220Good luck to all
azzalyzarc
22 Jul 2015
Re: Is the dividend... I hope divi remains but am cautiousAfter the LM mess statement as I recall was that divi would be maintained for th fy but did not seem to commit beyondLM royalty was bought originally to provide income stream I think so it is a loss. Also reading that the majors that are the other big dvi payers could be cutting backI stay invested hopefully and topping up a little monthly for the long term.
xstar
22 Jul 2015
Re: waiting for an upswing.. ...I think I should have put +40%,due to sp rise plus 6-10%,giving up to 50% 2yr gain..I like that better..DYOMaths...I'm still not sure.
