Braemar Shipping Services Live Discussion

old_punter 15 May 2018

2017/18 Results No surprises I can see in today's announcement, dividend 15p for the year and likelihood of better earnings and increasing dividend going forward on the back of global growth is the message. Finances look alright and shares are up 15p to 270p. Net worth is slightly ahead of market cap another plus in my book albeit mostly goodwill. I can't see holders selling at this level given an improving outlook and a yield of 5.5% so my guess FWLIW is the stock could attract some buying interest

Hydrogen Economy 24 Apr 2018

Given how much Clarkson's was hit by their warning yesterday BMS got off pretty lightly, presumably due to their diversified business.Not currently a holder.H2 [link] APRIL 2018 • 9:18AMShipbroker Clarkson’s shares sank almost a third after the company reversed course by issuing a profit warning just over a month after annual results which gave an positive assessment of the world’s shipping market.The world’s largest shipbroker sounded the alarm over a “challenging environment” in shipping and offshore capital markets, meaning deals are being delayed, a problem compounded by a “quiet period” in sale and purchase of vessels.Clarkson said it had also been hit by the weakening of the dollar, its main trading currency, and lower tanker freight rates, resulting in “financial performance that is below that previously expected by the board”.

old_punter 18 Apr 2018

Re: H1 results aspace,If you are still lurking on this board, you will have seen the trading update indicated £8m underlying o/profit for the year's 2017/18 results, last year they reported 10 May. If the 14p divi is held and looks to rise rather than fall, as I expect, then I am guessing the shares should be supported by the 5% yield at 280p given a likely absence of sellers.This is essentially a broking business so I would not expect high margins, or market dominance although they seem a reasonably big player in their market. As a cyclical business I see the decision to invest as taking a view of the cycle and on balance I still buy the global growth story. So if the cycle is upward even if not strongly there could be a geared uplift in profits. BMS had a divi of 26p not so long ago so the upside is there as brokers can pay out their earnings. The NAVES acquisition was sizeable, so potentially concerning, but is apparently doing well and the technical division is improving having been loss making. Recent £ strength is unhelpful of course. I am happy to sit on my holding bought c300p in front of the results at 280p, no doubt the price action ahead of the announcement will give a clue, but WDIK.

Hydrogen Economy 02 Feb 2018

Interesting acquisition"As Atlantic is regulated by the FCA, the acquisition will enable Braemar to move into the growth area of commodity derivatives broking."I'm not a shareholder, but if I was I think that would give me pause for thought. May be very profitable, but not without risk ! H22 February 2018 Braemar Shipping Services02 Feb 2018 0703Braemar ShippingRNS Number : 7122DBraemar Shipping Services PLC02 February 2018 BRAEMAR SHIPPING SERVICES PLC("Braemar", the "Company" or the "Group" Acquisition of Atlantic Brokers LtdBraemar Shipping Services plc ("Braemar", the "Company" or the "Group", a leading international provider of broking, financial advisory, consultancy, technical and logistics services to the shipping, marine, energy, offshore and insurance industries is pleased to announce the acquisition of the entire issued share capital of Atlantic Brokers Holdings Ltd, the holding company for Atlantic Brokers Ltd (together, "Atlantic", an established broker of physical and financial coal products (the "Acquisition" for a total consideration of £4.8 million. Acquisition Highlights• Atlantic is an established introducing broker for ICE coal and CME Clearport coal futures and options; it is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (the "FCA" and is also a member of the National Futures Association of the United States of America (the "NFA".• The Acquisition provides the opportunity to expand the combined Braemar and Atlantic businesses into new markets using Atlantic's experience and the physical shipping capability and market reach of Braemar. • As Atlantic is regulated by the FCA, the acquisition will enable Braemar to move into the growth area of commodity derivatives broking.• The total consideration of £4.8 million is made up of:- £2.7 million in cash (subject to adjustment based on target net asset value/regulatory capital requirements); and- £2.1 million to be satisfied by the issue of 804,426 ordinary shares of 10 pence each in the capital of Braemar, representing a price of £2.61055 per share (the volume weighted average closing middle market share price for an Ordinary Share for the 30 consecutive trading days prior to completion).• Atlantic is led by Tristram Simmonds and Michael Griffin who have over 35 years of combined professional experience in the energy markets and have been broking coal futures since 2001.• The sellers who are engaged in the business, Tristram Simmonds, Michael Griffin and Kelvin Taaffe (together, the "Working Sellers", will enter into new service contracts upon completion of the Acquisition. The transaction terms include lock in mechanisms to incentivise the Working Sellers to remain with Atlantic for at least 3 years following completion.• The cash element of the consideration will be financed from funds to be drawn down under the Company's existing credit agreement together with the Company's own resources.• Atlantic generated revenue and profit before tax for the year ended 30 June 2017 of £4.7 million and £0.6 million respectively. Acquisition Benefits• Atlantic will form a new regulated desk within Braemar ACM Shipbroking, enabling the division to offer both paper and physical broking services for the first time. Collaboration between Atlantic and Braemar’s Shipbroking division will give Braemar the opportunity to offer additional services to existing clients.• The acquisition of Atlantic offers additional growth opportunities for Braemar to expand into new product areas of the brokered commodity futures market, including iron ore derivatives, coking coal and other bulk products.• Acquiring an established, recognised business will enable rapid integration and the ability to attract new talent. Comments on the Acquisition from Braemar and Atlantic:James Kidwell, Chief Executive Officer of Braemar said:"The a

aspace 12 Jan 2018

Re: H1 results I’ve been lurking on this board for a few years and looking at Braemar’s financials. Always seemed expensive to me. There are no assets – they don’t have a fleet of ships – just know-how in ship broking and related marine technical services. Their balance sheet resembles that of a consultancy firm with only goodwill and accounts receivable as assets. Yet despite that they are a value-adding service, their margins are low (and negative for Technical). I take it they prosper when shipping activity and Baltic Exchange voyage rates are high, and correspondingly suffer when shipping activity and Baltic rates are low; across all shipping commodities. This makes shipping a cyclical business driven by what’s happening in the world economy. Reflecting this, Baltic dry goods rate has been low in recent years but improved in 2017 while crude oil shipping rates remain low. Chinese demand for commodities, chemicals, agriculture products is impacting favourably on shipping activity and is hoped to continue doing so in the coming years as Chinese consumption increases. When shipping activity is high, Braemar’s shipbroking and technical engineering services are likely to be in demand. Hopefully the lower activity of recent years has created a backlog of shipping and offshore projects that will benefit Braemar. Subject of course to world geo-political risks. What I’ve been trying to figure out is whether Braemar really has a niche dominant position in shipping consultancy and whether the disparate businesses are just bolt-ons or have some kind of synergy that will translate into superior returns for shareholders? The low margins suggest they are not dominant. If most of their earnings are in US dollars yet they report in British pounds I would expect a reasonable currency benefit in the British reported numbers. Instead we see a £2.5 million currency loss in the 31 Aug 2017 half year results which in turn wipes out the company’s entire six months profits. Why? With a weak pound this should have continued the healthy gain when translating foreign USD earnings into pounds. Did they hedge badly?The dividend policy has changed from the prior year when 9p was paid at interim compared to 5p in the current year. Looking over the past ten years, the dividend is flat at best and declining this year. To mind mind the flat/declining dividend is a further signal this is a struggling business that is not leveraging its presumed know-how in world shipping. So I'll continue to not be an investor despite the cheapening share price.

Bill1703 01 Jan 2018

Re: 2017 Top 10 - my Top 10 for 2018 As foreshadowed here and all relevant boards... 2018 trading from tomorrow, so time to repeat last year's "virtual portfolio" challenge. Same rules, as per the papers - equal weighted, valid for the whole year with no switching, full owning-up at year end! AACapitaConnect GroupGlaxoSmithKlineImperial BrandsITV Lloyds BankingMarks & SpencerStagecoachWPPI retain a bias toward UK exposure and 'Value' (the two closely related, obviously), with an expectation that the UK domestic outlook will clarify satisfactorily (if not wonderfully) this year. But it's no slam-dunk... and so hedged with a decent slug of overseas earnings and a general focus on "stock specific" stories - with LLOY the only real pure play on 'UK PLC' and associated sentiment. Ultimately, well aware that it's near-impossible to avoid losers as well as winners, I have asked the question - can I see 15% over 2018 (plus divis)? Without necessarily much help from the wider market. Four stocks stay in from 2017, with CPI, IMB, ITV and SGC still to justify their original inclusion and getting another chance (SGC was a close call). Bonmarche has done its job as "speculative" midcap retail play; VOD still looks fine to me but harder to see sufficient upside in either valuation or financial reporting; CARD and WTB were tougher choices, both still good for the long term IMHO but I see their respective attractions now more finely balanced against likely persisting near-term headwinds.I will doubtless be elaborating on the case for each of the "new" inclusions in the course of the year. FWIW stocks actively considered but failing to make the cut (as well as CARD and WTB): Braemar and SBRY (from my 2017 Top 10), then Aviva, BT, Debenhams, Gattaca, Merlin, Morrisons, Trinity Mirror.FYI I own 7 of the 10 stocks, with all of CPI (still!), WPP, GSK under active consideration (probably in that order). I'd be surprised if I didn't buy into at least one in the course of 2018.

Bill1703 29 Dec 2017

2017 Top 10 Stock Picks - Q4 & FY Update That's it for 2017, in market hours anyway, so it is time to tot up the final results for my previously published 2017 Top Ten... Q1 was not bad (in the end)... Q2 better, outperforming decently... Q3 not so much, a bit of a struggle throughout... and now a reasonable (if selective) Santa rally has delivered (belatedly) a decent enough Q4. It all means a positive absolute return for the year (+1.6%), albeit another good quarter for wider markets means I have underperformed the FTSE 100 by nearly 6% (and around 7% vs FTSE All-Share).But it's not the full story - I went heavy on income plays, with dividends (including a couple of "specials" delivering a further 5.7%, around 50% more than the UK market yield. So I can point to a total portfolio return of 7.3% for the year - still below the 12% or so returned by the main UK indices, but somewhat nearer respectability - and preserving my status as (distinctly) average fund manager... making you some kind of return on your money, but not actually managing to beat, or even meet, an index.Star performer, after a pleasing (albeit slightly suspicious) late run, was one of my small-cap speculatives, Bonmarche - up 60% for 2017! Then, at the other end of the size scale, comes Vodafone, an 18% return reflecting a year of solid success... just ahead of Card Factory (up nearly 17% after a rollercoaster ride), although CARD just edges out VOD in total return terms (+26% vs +24%). After that, a good Q4 sees Whitbread end the year up 6%, after 'promising' something much worse for most of it. But that's it for gains, and 4 "winners" out of 10 doesn't really cut it, I concede. Both Sainsbury and Braemar ended near enough where they started (down just under 3%), but thereafter the disappointments pile up like roadkill... Imperial Brands falling 11%, ITV losing 20%, Stagecoach giving up 24% and Capita's year of woe and warnings means it brings up the rear, some 25% down - with some small solace that it's the only one I still don't own for real (but watch this space!) How to rationalise this performance picture? Well, looking back at my original post, it seems I predicted it up-front a year ago - I quote... "a vague attempt at balance and diversification across the list, though it's probably still a bit too exposed to the UK economy - and hence any further Brexit downturn. Probably inevitable, given my usual bias towards 'value' and aversion to buying into momentum."The hope was that the Brexit 'deal', and consequent UK economic outlook, would clarify - while there's finally some sign of that now, for most of the year it's remained mired in the mud of uncertainty and ungentlemanly exchange. There is the (related) theme of Value staying out of favour - albeit with 'green shoots' starting to appear just as the snow comes tumbling - and getting ever cheaper over the year as the market found reassurance in "reassuringly expensive" havens of Quality and Momentum. So what for 2018? "Double-down" on the combo of cheap UK and underappreciated Value, in the expectation (or 'hope'?) that "this time NEXT year, Rodney".... or capitulate and jump on the market bandwagon, trusting the wheels stay on for another 12 months? Anyone following my thoughts for any length of time will know the answer ... but either way, all will be formally revealed in due course with my Top Ten for 2018 - as I always promised, and likewise enourage others to participate.FWIW my own 'real' portfolio fared better for 2017, up c.11.5% (total return of c.15%). Very nicely outperforming FTSE 100 (+7.6%) and All-Share (+9.0%) in both price terms and their total returns of some 12-13%, though lagging the Global Market return of 20%. Given I've owned 9 of my "Top Ten" stocks for most of the year, and that I didn't set out to pick bad stocks, you can deduce that much of my performance came from unexpected quarters... as good an advert as any for diversification - of one's own thought processes and investment ins

old_punter 23 Oct 2017

H1 results Ex the one offs, the numbers looked ok to me, though conditions remain fairly tough they seem to be improving and BMS is generating cash so the 14p divi looks safe. If so its a 4.5% yield while one waits for the recovery to come through which is fine by me.So while I can't see the shares doing much short term it would be dangerous to wait much longer before buying if one wants to be aboard this one.

Bill1703 03 Oct 2017

Re: 2017 Top 10 Stock Picks - Q3 Update Having now reached the end of Q3, it is again time to "own up" on YTD performance for my previously published 2017 Top Ten... Having just edged ahead of the market by end Q1, and outperforming decently over Q2, I am disappointed and (moderately) shame-faced to report that Q3 has been a struggle, pretty much throughout. The portfolio is still just about above water in absolute terms YTD (+0.3%), but with the markets holding onto modest gains over the quarter, it means I am now underperforming the FTSE 100 by nearly 3% YTD (and around 4% vs FTSE All-Share).Star performer is now Card Factory, and not for the first time - despite recent wobbles, up 22% YTD. But after that, success stories are thinner on the ground than they were - it's perhaps relevant that the original 'speculative' plays, Braemar and Bonmarche, come next (up 13% and 9% respectively), and then decent returns are sustained by both Capita (up c.6%, albeit well down on where it was at Q2) and Vodafone (up around 5%). So half the portfolio is at least showing gains... and I probably also get a "pass" with Whitbread, which is breaking even, near as dammit (-0.3%). But after that, the tale of woes unfolds in chunky increments... Sainsbury down nearly 5%, Imperial Brands a full 10%, ITV losing 15% (at least, better than it was) and Stagecoach still lagging the lot, now just over 20% down. For full disclosure, I continue to own 9 of the 10 stocks (to varying degrees of 'happiness'), and while Capita remains on the "watch and wait" list, I have yet to bite... maybe in Q4? Maybe not...Needless to say, I remain optimistic for Q4 - well aware that I am now in the 'last chance saloon' when it comes to salvaging my performance (and my pride), for the 2017 'competition' at least. I will not deny outright ropey stock selection, at least in one or two cases, but I think there is a wider theme at play... 'Value' still out of favour and just getting cheaper as the market hides in reassuring (and "reassuringly expensive" 'Quality'. As such, it's a broader tide that I think will turn - and indeed it could at any time, and with it (I am sure) my portfolio... but whether it'll be by the end of Q4 or later, we can only now hope and wait. But a big juicy takeover bid wouldn't do any harm... surely all of ITV, IMB and VOD cannot end yet another year without the long-rumoured (and long-overdue) tap-on-the-shoulder!? Until such time, it will likely remain the familiar story of (distinctly) average fund managing - just about managing to avoid losing your money, but failing to beat an index...

Bill1703 30 Jun 2017

2017 Top 10 Stocks - H1 Update Having reached the end of Q2 and therefore H1 2017, it is time again to "own up" on YTD performance for my previously published 2017 Top Ten...Having just edged ahead of the market at the very end of Q1, the list has spent most of Q2 outperforming decently, albeit somewhat erratically with different stocks putting in a strong run at different times, only to fall back again. But despite a weak-ish end to the quarter and first half, I am pleased to report that it is still up 4.4% overall YTD (vs +3.1% at end Q1)... outperforming the FTSE100 by 2.0% and the All-Share Index by a slightly slimmer 1.0%.Star performer is now Capita - would you believe - up a full 30% YTD (and of course, the only one of the Top 10 I still don't own myself). The erstwhile magnificent Card Factory (+17%) has lost some of its lustre but holds on to a solid second place. After that, other decent returns were recorded by Vodafone and Bonmarche (both up c.9%) and Whitbread (up 5%). Braemar and Sainsbury's have just about held onto positive gains (up 1-2%), albeit a tad below the market, while my three "losers" are now Imperial brands (-3%), ITV (-12%) and Stagecoach (-13%, most of it in recent days - annoyingly - post underwhelming figures). For full disclosure, I continue to (mostly) happily own nine of the 10 stocks - I may now have missed the boat with Capita, though wouldn't be amazed to see it track back again with a number of outstanding issues still to play out. And I have recently doubled up on my holding of ITV, which is looking more and more the outstanding value play for H2 2017 (and a nice overseas take-out bid wouldn't go amiss).Even in the current fragile and nervous market I remain optimistic for H2 - though I should probably bite your hand off for another half of marginal outperformance... god knows, it's good enough for most professional managers (and better than many can manage), and my fees remain highly "competitive" (I know my worth, or lack thereof).

Bill1703 30 Jun 2017

2017 Top 10 Stock Picks - H1 Update Having reached the end of Q2 and therefore H1 2017, it is time again to "own up" on YTD performance for my previously published 2017 Top Ten...Having just edged ahead of the market at the very end of Q1, the list has spent most of Q2 outperforming decently, albeit somewhat erratically with different stocks putting in a strong run at different times, only to fall back again. But despite a weak-ish end to the quarter and first half, I am pleased to report that it is still up 4.4% overall YTD (vs +3.1% at end Q1)... outperforming the FTSE100 by 2.0% and the All-Share Index by a slightly slimmer 1.0%.Star performer is now Capita - would you believe - up a full 30% YTD (and of course, the only one of the Top 10 I still don't own myself). The erstwhile magnificent Card Factory (+17%) has lost some of its lustre but holds on to a solid second place. After that, other decent returns were recorded by Vodafone and Bonmarche (both up c.9%) and Whitbread (up 5%). Braemar and Sainsbury's have just about held onto positive gains (up 1-2%), albeit a tad below the market, while my three "losers" are now Imperial brands (-3%), ITV (-12%) and Stagecoach (-13%, most of it in recent days - annoyingly - post underwhelming figures). For full disclosure, I continue to (mostly) happily own nine of the 10 stocks - I may now have missed the boat with Capita, though wouldn't be amazed to see it track back again with a number of outstanding issues still to play out. And I have recently doubled up on my holding of ITV, which is looking more and more the outstanding value play for H2 2017 (and a nice overseas take-out bid wouldn't go amiss).Even in the current fragile and nervous market I remain optimistic for H2 - though I should probably bite your hand off for another half of marginal outperformance... god knows, it's good enough for most professional managers (and better than many can manage), and my fees remain highly "competitive" (I know my worth, or lack thereof).

oilovlam 09 May 2017

Results tomorrow Final results tomorrow. Fingers crossed they have steadied the ship....oh there's a pun there somewhere.

oilovlam 29 Apr 2017

Re: Good value?? Something seems to have happened or is happening with BMS....I cannot figure out what it is, but it is good to see the SP heading north. Maybe it has something to do with the results due soon. I hope this is sustainable.

Vosene 01 Apr 2017

Re: My Top 10 Stock Tips for 2017 - Q1 updat... I bet if you look back on this post in 10-20 years time you will wish you put all your money in IMB and simply sat back... if I had done so when I started investing I would be long retired by now!Bonmarche will go bust IMO

Bill1703 01 Apr 2017

My Top 10 Stock Tips for 2017 - Q1 update Having reached the end of Q1 2017, it is time to "own up" on YTD performance for the 2017 Top Ten...And it is pleasing (and somewhat surprising) to report that, after a late spurt in the very final throes of the quarter, it is up 3.1% overall... outperforming the FTSE100 by 0.5%, and pretty much bang in line with (very marginally better than) the All-Share Index, having lagged the market indices for very nearly the whole period.Star performer was, of course, the magnificent Card Factory (+13%), crowned by yesterday's delayed - but entirely deserved - post-results rally. In second place, the imperious Imperial Brands delivered a short 10%, followed by each of Sainsbury, ITV and Capita in the top half with returns of 6-7%. Whitbread and Vodafone also did well enough, with a solid, if not spectacular, 4-5% each. Only three "losers"... Stagecoach has lost 3%, and then bringing up the rear are the smaller caps Braemar (-8%) and Bonmarche (-10%) - the latter two being the more consciously speculative selections, whose "value" stories remain intact IMHO, but as yet underappreciated by Mr Market... but I remain hopeful for Q2 and/or the rest of the year!For full disclosure, I continue to (mostly) happily own nine of the 10 stocks, with only Capita still to make it off the "watch and wait" bench.