spankaroo
24 Oct 2017
Re: Robbing Peter to pay Paul Fyzo - perhaps I just see things differently from your strong buy view point. One tip. Be very wary of recommendation from a sell side analyst, who are also broker (joint in this case) to the company for obvious reasons. PS from what I can see Vametco has always been profitable in some shape or form
spankaroo
24 Oct 2017
Re: Robbing Peter to pay Paul Humball - i'm not knocking Bushveld M per se, lets face it BVL((BM & Dragon) only came up with $0.8m in cash for Vametco from memory and the rest was done via debt, a hat tip for that. The sellers of ultimately Vametco weren't dumb and that's why it put in earn-out provisions and I suspect the deal didn't include any cash in Vametco and limited inventory. From what I see a large majority of the debt has been just been transferred over to Wogan in the form of a credit facility, which is repayable on demand. Meanwhile Vametco's balance sheet has been severally weakened. The deal was a masterful piece of paper shuffling, but the cash had to come from somewhere, thus Vametco.'s balance sheet must have been stretched to near breaking point. Anyway, hopeful BM will give us 27% more visibility in its imterims at the end on November
fyoz
24 Oct 2017
Re: Robbing Peter to pay Paul spankarooYour opinion is just that. But coming on here with a strong sell recommendation provokes a response, maybe that's what you intendedYour latest comment that vanadium prices have spiked is not based on fact. However, SP Angel's last note was based on prices of around $25 for FeV, so the company is profitable even at those levelsWorth noting that while you're dishing out strong sell rec's the analyst has issued a target price of 14p, so a 40% increase from where we are nowAlso worth noting is that any new investors will still qualify to receive free shares in the de-merged Afritin company, until the deadline date is announced
HumBall
23 Oct 2017
Re: Robbing Peter to pay Paul You might have a point about how money is being shuffled around Spankaroo. Although I had been under the impression the loan was paid back through existing stockpiles. However, there are a few crucial things regardless of how money has been moved around. Firstly, BMN is now debt free, and has a chunky 27% stake in Vametco. Secondly, they structured the deal with Yellow Dragon (who have a controlling stake on paper, but are largely silent partners) and Jackson, the BEE partner who own 25%, loaning Jackson the money to make the purchase. In reality these partners are supporting BMN who are in reality in full control of the Vametco asset. Finally, ownership of Vametco allows BMN to progress their plans for electrolyte manufacture (that may be based at Vametco) and also potentially increases their flexibility in financing development of Mokopane (the real jewell in the crown) for which licensing news is expected soon.The spin-off of the tin has long been mooted by FM as an objective. I don't see anything suspicious about the timing. It is something of a dividend for many long term holders and comes as they finalised the UIS deal that provided the additional resource to justify a stand alone play. Better it is spun off and raises cash independently for the tin, while also forcing the market to ascribe fair value to it, leaving BMN to focus on the V. Coal will likely be spun off in a similar fashion once the IPP licence is in and if the MOU with PowerChina progresses.I do appreciate that from the outside, the various structures in BMN do seem complex, and rightfully it is sensible to question them. I think you'll find on closer inspection though there really is a master work in play here.And above all, the outlook for V and commodities in general is superb. This show is just at the beginning in my view. The next 3-5 years could see a significant company become established IF the dots continue to join up as they are doing.I am not completely bullish on this though. One concern is that currently Vametco provides no cash for the PLC. With multiple stakeholders and plans to increase capacity from 2,800tps to 5,000 tpa, all cash is being reinvested in the business. Hence BMN the PLC have just raised 8million for working capital. This however, should be sufficient for some time to come - perhaps until either BE or Vametco can start putting money into the PLC. We shall have to see. The picture that emerging still has gaps to be filled. But the potential once everything is operational is huge.Check the latest presentation for a good overview:[link]
spankaroo
23 Oct 2017
Re: Robbing Peter to pay Paul fyoz - just my own personal view. Done the numbers and see a cash crush coming. I hope after the spike in vanadium prices it will show its earn-out liability to Evraz's of up to $5m. Anyway enough, I await its interims.
fyoz
23 Oct 2017
Re: Robbing Peter to pay Paul Yes I've done my own research, been invested here for about 3 years and I'm sitting on +300% profit. I doubt very much that YOU can tell me anything I don't know about this company, or the direction it's heading
spankaroo
23 Oct 2017
Re: Robbing Peter to pay Paul Vemetco/Vamentco the outcome will be the same and yes you can call me genius when the inevitable happens. 
DYOR
fyoz
23 Oct 2017
Re: Robbing Peter to pay Paul Wow, you thought of all that but you can't even spell VametcoGenius . . .
spankaroo
23 Oct 2017
Robbing Peter to pay Paul Putting AfriTin to one side - just a sideshow as it hasn't generated a penny and still has a long way to go before ever doing so. Basically, a vehicle to ramp. I come back to Bushveld Minerals and the Bushveld Vanadium deal. BVL paid $11.96m between 31 May - 15 June 2017 out of Vemetco's cash flow, but this wasn't possible as it only generated EBITDA $6.5m (operating update 14th Aug) and I cannot believe all of the $6.5m will convert into free cash flow, as it would have to spend money on equipment and obviously interest on the Barak loan. So the extra $5.5m of the cash to repay the Barak loan must have come via selling H2 production, so even with say 1.6mtV in H2 (at full capacity) it make $12m EBITDA (that's if vanadium stay above $kg 37 for the next two mths) the business will only have generated $6.5m EBITDA for the whole year for itself, as the rest has gone Barak. This extreme depletion of cash from Vemetco, has to a small extent been helped by a sales and marketing agreement with Wogen for $11m (BVH rolled its $3m loan to help fund Vemetco into the $11m). As we don't know the full terms of the Wogen deal, we don't know the real cost to Vemetco and what securing it has put up. This deal is purely robbing Peter to pay Paul and I suspect if vanadium prices don't hold up Bushveld Minerials will have remit cash up to BVH to keep the show on the road. No wonder it's offloading the Tin business before its Interims come out.
spankaroo
21 Oct 2017
Re: Subdivision and Demerger. Have been in this one a couple of times, but a number of doubts have crept into the formula. The recent convertible loan and nature. Why do this if BVL is so profitable? As the structure of BVL. BMH has a minority shareholding and Yellow Dragon has the voting power to do what ever it wants. And why is the demerger timed just when it's the last day to get its interims out before suspension. Hmmm
HumBall
21 Oct 2017
Re: Subdivision and Demerger. Interesting times indeed. FM delivering on all his promises so far. Tin demerger now going ahead. Lemur likely will too in time although we need the IPP licence for that to move forward, which is apparently making progress.We should know more about Afritin strategy, placing and listing price in the next few weeks. One thing I'm pretty certain of is that whatever price Afritin list at, BMN will be marked down accordingly, minus their 15/20% retained interest (tbc post loan and placing). However I expect this mark down to be short lived as buyers snap up a discounted BMN (my opinion). Afritin may fall over the first few days trading, but I suspect FM and AV but the company will have minimum 12 months finance after listing and will presumably have a clear path to production, otherwise why demerge at this time? We should have the admission docs soon enough anyway and be able to make a more informed judgement. Either way, I see it as a master stroke to force the market to value to the tin portfolio fairly and expect the combined value to balance out significantly better in our favour. Tin has a great outlook, with a serious supply deficit expected in the months and years to come. It will all come down to how soon they can get UIS into attractive shape. That they are buying out the remaining Dawnmin stake is very positive in my mind. Building a significant resource.Now if the Mokopane licence comes through, or positive BE news on electrolyte production, limits could really be the sky in this in time.It's all shaping up remarkably at the moment. But patience will be required as always. So much news. Where will we be in 4 years of BE develops, Mokopane comes online, and Vametco is producing at 5000tpa or more. Not including the potential lemur spin off or Afritin producing into a building tin price.Rewards for the patient. But keeping a close eye on developments is of course essential
Ecologist
20 Oct 2017
Re: Subdivision and Demerger. Demerger of Greenhillls gets shareholder go-ahead.[link]
fish lips
13 Oct 2017
Re: Subdivision and Demerger. I am pretty confident of these doubling again. I bought in at 3p and had a target of 10p, but given what is going on and the way this company has been run I think it certainly has got more to go.
Nobblynick
12 Oct 2017
Subdivision and Demerger. I do not hold a huge amount of these shares and they are part of my "roll the dice " portfolio. I have doubled my money and was content to sit on them. There are a lot of more knowledgeable people than me on this stuff........so is it worth sitting tight or will this be the start of the company breaking up? Am inclined to roll the dice again
fyoz
04 Oct 2017
Re: Interseting RNS EcologistNo disrespect to you intended, I got the wrong drift of your sub 1p commentYes I fully expect Lemur, (coal platform) to be hived off as well in due course. I think Fortune has his sights set firmly on the VRFB market via BE. It's his mantra, the 'vertically integrated vanadium company', from mine, processing and electrolyte to finished batteries. He knows his market and is perfectly poised to capture a huge shareIt's going to be great watching the story unfold
