quink ink
21 Mar 2018
Re: Why the raise? Compliments from BBNI have listened to the FM presentation in Cape Town (see below) again and much can be drawn from the figures highlighted.Firstly, FM talks about a $16 margin in 2017 but the EBITDA figure presented actually declares EBITDA to be $8,704 per mtv sold (2,721 mtv in 2017). This is against average prices of $33,000 per mtv for 2017.What is important to appreciate is that the $16.6 per kg figure is for production only. It excludes depreciation, royalties, selling, and general & administrative expenses.Where these can be more accurately established is in the Admission Document (see second link below). There on page 245 one can find under Table 14.3 a projected cost figure of ZAR 250 for 2019. If one then skips back to page 243 then under Table 14.1 we see that in 2019, the company was projecting a prodcution figure of 3,750 mtv (Phase 2 expansion). So as a fairly safe starting position, prior to Q1 actual figures, we can say that Vametco at 3,680 mtv has all in cost figures (minus royalties) of about ZAR 250.This figure includes those costs noted above except for royalties, which for the purpose of this exercise can be parked.With Q1 dollar to ZAR currently standing at around 11.90, that gives an all in cost of circa $21,000 per mtv produced.What is also very interesting is the 2017 operation costs in Table 14.3 are stated as being ZAR 265 @ dollar/ZAR exchange of 13.3 for 2017 (remember this document was produced in late 2017, so the 2017 figure shouldn't be too far out). That equates to $19,925 per mtv.But we know that Vametco made ZAR 315m in EBITDA for 2017, which at 2,721 mtv sold equates to $8,700 per mtv.However, Vametco produced 2,649 mtv but sold 2,721 mtv. That equates to a bonus $870 per mtv EBITDA because the 72 mtv difference carries no costs for 2017, so that needs to be subtracted from the 2017 mtv figure.In total that makes $27,755 per mtv.But at average sales of $33,000 per mtv, we have near on $14.3m that is unaccounted for. Table 14.2 on page 245 states ongoing Capex of ZAR 10.8m for 2017, that's just $820kEven if we add in the total planned capex for phase 2 expansion in 2018 ($2.4m) because we know the long lead items were ordered in Q4 2017, we still have roughly $11m of expenditure that is not covered.Yes there will be some royalties but at prices of $33 per kg they won't be very much. So Vametco has invested some additional $11m during 2017When you are expanding agressively and the cash flow is there, then surely if its possible, you invest it and drive that production higher, because in this market there is a lot of money to be made.[link] moving onto that $150 EBITDA in 2018.From what I have just posted, much of the projected Phase 3 $13m plant investments that are needed to expand to 5,078 mtv have been spent in 2017. (See Admission Document page 245 table 14.2 Capital Plan).Yet at 2,721 mtv sold and only 9 months full control of the facility, Vametco still made ZAR 315m EBITDA in 2017.What 2017 is looking very much like is a year of heavy investment and disruption in order to clear the way for 2018 to deliver the really big numbers, buoyed by the fact that the market is short and the prices are going to go much higher.Therefore, for me the actual operating cost figure will be much closer to the actual final cost figure because investment costs will be reduced this year.Thus at our starting position of ZAR 250, we have an all in cost for Vametco @ ZAR 11.90 for the year of $21,000 per mtv.At $60 per mtv and 3,680 mtv produced that makes $143.5m EBITDA. Now I am sure there will be other costs that are not covered, plus there are still costs associated with the phase 2/3 expansion. However, at the same time FM's statement that Vametco at current cost profile and current
Ecologist
20 Mar 2018
Re: Why the raise? Are you bullish then Inkie? 🤔
quink ink
20 Mar 2018
Re: Why the raise? BMN is going places in 2018. 59.1% of Vametco.Vametco 2018 profits are looking enormous at current FeV prices and production levels. Our share of Vametco profits are around £1m per week at current FeV prices.There is a world vanadium supply deficit.Chinese rebar standards will increase vanadium demand by a further 30%. Chinese are banning the import of vanadium s l a g. China£s environmental crackdown is £fueling an already potent price rally£. Vanadium prices have reached multi year highs already.China, one of the largest vanadium producers in the world, is expected to become a net importer of ferro-vanadium. Vametco annual vanadium production is increasing to 3,750 tonnes in July this year and we are targeting production levels of 5,000 tonnes pa by the end of next year. All production increases paid for through operating cash flows. Guidance for 2018 is 3,680 tonnes of production (Nitrovan/FeV). On the lookout for more brownfield vanadium production facilities.Mokopane mining licence is due any time.Mokopane development is coming.The current V2O5 price is making our Mokopane vanadium project hugely profitable. Brits vanadium, high grades expected.Bushveld Energy is in the very exciting VRFB sector.Agreements with UET and IDC.Agreement with Eskom, the SA national power utility, for the installation of a VRFB with peak power of 120kW and peak energy of 450kWh. Electrolyte production is moving forward. Imaloto coal MOU with Sinohydro.Imaloto coal BFS is currently being prepared. Lemur has signed a binding 30 year power purchasing agreement with the Madagascar state-owned utility JIRAMA.Potential coal platform sale/spin off.We own 17.48% of Afritin Mining.Other resources, iron ore, titanium, phosphate. South Africa politics are beginning to improve significantly. Zuma and his corrupt cronies have gone/are being removed. Cyril Ramaphosa is the new president with his business friendly approach. South Africa is aiming to become investor friendly and encourage foreign investment. Check out Ramaphosa£s SONA, all very positive for business and mining. IMO 2018 is going to be spectacular. DYOR of course A forward PE of around 1.5. Vanadium prices still rising. The vanadium deficit increasing. Vametco production increasing. Production costs reducing. Brownfield acquisition. Electrolyte production next year. Mokopane licence due. Brits vanadium. Eskom demonstration battery.Bushveld Energy. Imaloto coal. Etc. FM carrying out all promises made. Even the political situation is massively improved!Great times ahead
Ecologist
20 Mar 2018
Re: Why the raise? Interesting article today on Vanadium price rises. If the link does not work, go to the BMN website and the link is there.[link]
quink ink
20 Mar 2018
Re: Why the raise? Eco to answer your question. Erongo have sold there shares to a II at around 8.9p and this means that the overhang of shares no longer exists. This in turn led to the rise. Also Q1 results expected within the next few weeks which are expected to be very profitable. The price of Vanadium is the clue.
Ecologist
19 Mar 2018
Re: Why the raise? Quink and co have told us "why" BMN is worth a higher sp, I'm sure we all agree with their conclusions. But what Fish and I are still waiting to be told is why the sp has jumped 25%+ in the last three sessions without any apparent news. Has the market just woken up? I do not think so. Something is about to emerge, bated breath for that something.
Cream Walker
19 Mar 2018
Re: Why the raise? Saw this on LSE today and found it helpful[link]
fish lips
19 Mar 2018
Another blue day and still no RNS Although I'm not complaining as I'm up a considerable amount, but we've gone from 8p to 12.5p in only a few days and no official news. I know there's lots to come in the 2018 so long may this continue.
quink ink
17 Mar 2018
Re: Why the raise? Thanks again to Squirty Flowers on LSEHere is a reminder for anyone new to this company why it is such a great investment proposition at the current levels. In short, the company is currently valued at less than 2x expected 2018 profits (not 2x revenue, but 2x profit). These profits are easily sustainable - indeed they likely to expand - in 2019, so the shares remain an absolute bargain at anything under 25p. Since the RNS on 21 Dec 2017 announcing completion of the acquisition, BMN owns 59.1% of Vametco mine and Vandium production plant. Thus any profits are not yet showing up for BMN ... but they will!Vametco production cost 2017: $16.6 kg VPrice Vanadium (end January 2018): $60 kgVCurrent production rate: 3,035 mtV paExpected production costs decrease: 7% through economies of scaleProduction rate by June 2018: 3,750 mtV paProduction guidance for 2018: 3,680 mtV (3,050 mtV Nitrovan, 630mtV FeV)At current costs and vanadium price CEO recently stated that the Vametco plant is capable of generating an Ebitda of $150 million in 2018 !!!!!!!!!!59% of $150 million = $88.5 million = £63 million.Since CEO made that statement I believe the price of vanadium risen to around $70 kgV.Production rate by 2019: 5,000 mtV pa (that is a 33% increase in production from the June target!)Current market cap: £101 million (as of 16 March 2018)Links to sources:[link]
quink ink
16 Mar 2018
Re: Why the raise? [link] above has been set up by a very researched PI investor. Excellent read if anyone interested in investing in BMN.dyor of course
quink ink
16 Mar 2018
Re: Why the raise? A copy post borrowed from ND on LSE chatCourtesy of ND 8/3/18BMN is going places in 2018.59.1% of Vametco.Vametco 2018 profits are looking enormous at current FeV prices and production levels.Our share of Vametco profits are around £1m per week at current FeV prices.There is a world vanadium supply deficit.Chinese rebar standards will increase vanadium demand by a further 30%.Chinese are banning the import of vanadium s l a g.China£s environmental crackdown is £fueling an already potent price rally£.Vanadium prices have reached multi year highs already.China, one of the largest vanadium producers in the world, is expected to become a net importer of ferro-vanadium.Vametco annual vanadium production is increasing to 3,750 tonnes in July this year and we are targeting production levels of 5,000 tonnes pa by the end of next year. All production increases paid for through operating cash flows.Guidance for 2018 is 3,680 tonnes of production (Nitrovan/FeV).On the lookout for more brownfield vanadium production facilities.Mokopane mining licence is due any time.Mokopane development is coming.The current V2O5 price is making our Mokopane vanadium project hugely profitable.Brits vanadium, high grades expected.Bushveld Energy is in the very exciting VRFB sector.Agreements with UET and IDC.Agreement with Eskom, the SA national power utility, for the installation of a VRFB with peak power of 120kW and peak energy of 450kWh.Electrolyte production is moving forward.Imaloto coal MOU with Sinohydro.Imaloto coal BFS is currently being prepared.Lemur has signed a binding 30 year power purchasing agreement with the Madagascar state-owned utility JIRAMA.Potential coal platform sale/spin off.We own 17.48% of Afritin Mining.Other resources, iron ore, titanium, phosphate.South Africa politics are beginning to improve significantly.Zuma and his corrupt cronies have gone/are being removed.Cyril Ramaphosa is the new president with his business friendly approach.South Africa is aiming to become investor friendly and encourage foreign investment.Check out Ramaphosa£s SONA, all very positive for business and mining.IMO 2018 is going to be spectacular.DYOR of course
quink ink
16 Mar 2018
Re: Why the raise? Eco. Go onto LSE website and all will be revealed by posters such as Big Bite Now (BBN) Alphacom and Nick Derby. I have been holding 1.75 million of these beauties for over 5 years and we are worth over 30p at least when Q1 results appear next month. My best share ever after 35 years of investing.Stunning CEO and Vanadium prices going through the roof. Forget Afritin it was spun off to concentrate on Vanadium. DYOR of course.
Ecologist
16 Mar 2018
Re: Why the raise? Not to moan but up again today ... 25% or so in 3 days with no published news apart the Afritin results. Any more upward movement and we should get an RNS to explain why or to say they do not know why. But silence cannot pass for much longer.
fish lips
15 Mar 2018
Re: Why the raise? More movement, perhaps an RNS tomorrow?
Ripley94
14 Mar 2018
Re: Auction uncrossings 06/03/17 & 08/03/17.Just two small remarks before thread .
