Bison722
05 Apr 2018
Re: Interims RNS Fluffy.......genuinely thank you for such a response. On here it’s usually emotional and dishonest nonsense that’s posted as a tool to scare others into selling by those that wish to simply vindicate their own losses. But yours was considered and informative and eloquently highlighted the risks.The technical elements of your post were a great read but I will agree with indaknow on some aspects, what you have highlighted is absolutely nothing new and it’s the same risks we have known for a few years (since the farm out in 2014) And of course like you said in the O&G world these drills have an extremely high COS, so on that basis it doesn’t warrant such caution IMO.......these are appraisal wells and of course carry much less risk of disappointment than wild cat drills. On the basis of costs, until someone can produce concrete evidence or comparisons that COC are well over spending then I will be happy that it’s well below what the previous BOD were spending for the same end result. You say on a bad result COC will try to recoup their losses, but why would they have losses when on current numbers the NAV is well above current SP?And selling 30% of shares is not going to be an easy feat without shooting themselves in the foot, so I would not expect massive COC offload and still expect a sale above today’s price even if the wells disappoint All in all the risk vs reward profile is pretty good from here
Bison722
05 Apr 2018
Re: Interims RNS Jac......you are stunningly thick.......sorry there is no other way of putting itFirst off fluffy has a hold rating, you said sell at 24p with a 15p price target, so your opinions are completely different from the get goFluffy has also laid out a coherent, reasoned, honest, logical and experienced post, you have never once produced one of them, not even close. Every post of yours is just based on bitterness from your losses. So saying you had “exactly the same thoughts” as fluffy is unequivocally and categorically a lie, you don’t have the cerebral capacity to base your investment decisions on anything other than emotion. You were buying BLVN at triple figures on the basis of everything fluffy just highlighted as a risk. You do understand that the drills would carry the same risk whether COC or KH were in charge don’t you? So again your comment about selling because it is akin to sticking it on black on the casino is completely illogical and at the same time completely dishonest You also say the “amateurs” that “ blindly hope”.....first off what makes you a professional? Your posts would confirm the exact opposite. Secondly you think blind hope is believing that an “appraisal” (you no doubt need to research the difference between an appraisal well and a wild cat drill) might come in good? Then the fact you use the terms “emotional” as an unfounded insult to others and then attribute the term “wiser heads” to you........well that is nothing short of mind boggling irony, simply staggering iii......please ban this lunatic.........it’s dangerous for this individual to have a savings account let alone a trading one...........
jacarandauk
05 Apr 2018
Re: Interims RNS Fluffy hands out a lesson to the emotional amateurs who blindly hope the good days will come.I had exactly the same thoughts fluffy - a toss of a coin is little different to sticking it all on black in the casino!Sadly quite a few on here are so up to their necks they have lost touch with reality. I try to help them but they are resistant to wiser heads.
indaknow
04 Apr 2018
Re: Interims RNS FluffyDo you honestly think that Eli is doing everything on his own? The reality is that the Company will be using all sorts of technical advisors, lawyers and the like to deal with the work associated with etinde and bomono. That's where the expenditure is. Why don't you email the company if you are concerned? Also, how do you marry up your statement about the lack of peer group comparable with your following statements about g&a being far in excess of what should be expected?I'm sorry if this comes across as defensive, but who do you think sold out to Lukoil and lost any opportunity for blvn to be operator? Which of the risks you identify with the next drilling campaign are new? These same 'risks' have been around for ages and, looking at your previous posting dates, you should have already been well aware of them...
Fluffy Ducky
04 Apr 2018
Re: Interims RNS Bison,Thanks for your comments; I concur that the current G&A costs are well below those of the previous managing regime and in offering my views I must confess I don’t as yet have a peer group comparison of G&A for similar oil and gas companies. I disagree that the same job can be accomplished now by the current Blvn management set-up (of one listed individual!) as to what might have been achieved (or not, depending on your opinion/loyalites) by the previous managing encumbants, pre-Board shake-up.In my opinion, based on over 25 years experience of working for and dealing with oil and gas companies, large and small, the G&A quoted by the recent release is far in excess of what ought to be the case for a company with only one current executive director (the CEO) and no staff. No doubt there are other companies with similar questions to be raised, though as I say I don’t have any direct comparisons to offer.My guess is that use of consultancy might make up some (but not all) of the G&A sum quoted, even if the 3rd party renumeration(s) and costs are included. IMO it then still begs the question of where the 350,000 US$ per month of share-holder money is being spent. At a face value it is a lot of money given the status of the company and resourcing level. More detail in the corporate reporting would be useful.Whatever the situation, with no implicit expertise in oil and gas, Bowleven company and share-holder value are now riding on the coat-tails of the Operator in Etinde and indeed on the result of the IM-6 well. Bowleven have little or no expertise for running their ‘Operated’ block at Bomono, so I believe you can kiss any ‘potential’ good-bye there, if there was indeed any material potential there in the first place.Considering the upcoming 2-well drilling programme, the chance of success at the first well IM-6 of ‘circa 50%’ is a coin-flip, a 50-50, i.e. there is just as much chance of failing as succeeding. IMO, this 50% chance of success is about as good as it gets in the Exploration & Appraisal world, and those take a view that chances of success can be better than this for any well need to critique any supporting technical analysis. That aside, for me the ‘risks’ in the near future are as follows
i) Will the IM-6 well with reach the primary target as the first Etinde appraisal well without blowing the carry and additional Blvn net share of costs? It is a considerable time since the last well in the area and all the expertise that drilled and learned from the IM5/IM-5R/IM-5RZ wells has long since moved on to other pastures. Bowleven managed to get down to IM-5 ‘Intra’ target after 2 false starts, i.e. they had 3 goes at it. False starts and drilling problems all equal time and money and Blvn are ultimately limited on cash, even with a carry, unless other funding materialises.(ii) What hydrocarbon will be found in the IM-6 well is of course fundamental to everything – if anything except a full gas column, reservoir pressure connected to the IM-5 well is found, there will be still be doubt about the long-term production prospects for a gas utilisation project. This is because the estimated reserve volumes will not provide the slam-dunk required for government approvals and initial investment in a very costly floating LNG project, as currently preferred by the JV. Finding oil at IM-6 would be a very welcome surprise but will probably initiate much head-scratching within the technical teams and would need a different development concept to get to an FID.(iii) If the IM-6 well is dry i.e. water found in the field at the appraisal well location then everything will truly grind to a halt in Etinde and for Bowleven, again due to insufficient hydrocarbon volumes to slam-dunk the FID for a floating LNG gas project. A dry hole might precipitate the JV will be trying to sell their individual stakes in a ‘fire-sale’ at Etinde. In my view a dry hole would see COC trying to sell their
legionrider
06 Mar 2017
figures are millions, in case your wondering
legionrider
06 Mar 2017
What I find strange here is that BLVN reportedly have $97 in cash left, VOG market Cap is about $80 so why didn't BLVN just buy VOG? they could have got it for $60 before rumours pushed the share price up 20% last couple of weeks.
josmith70
28 Jul 2015
Uncertain Times for Quindell (LSE: QPP) and Afren (LSE: AFR) but not BowLeven (LSE: BLVN). [link]
rjordan12003
09 Apr 2015
we could buy alba easily and get access to 100 billion barrels in the uk ?? thoughts ??
Zeepo
25 Mar 2015
I do not think the CPR will have much effect here and farm out, if it ever happens of course,will take an awful lot longer than holders think.My guess is late this year or early next year.A long time on AIM.You can't blame Trice for that but it is not a good position to be in looking for a huge cash injection with the oil market being what it is.
prostand
12 Jan 2015
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