Winnet
16 Apr 2018
Investor Chronicle Simon Thompson, formally a fan of BLVN, is now advising investors to half their exposure in this weeks Investor Chronicle. I wonder whats made him change his mind?
warbaby43
16 Apr 2018
Re: Rig en voyage And here taken Singapore last Thurs are pics of "Eagle" with the Topaz on board:[link]
warbaby43
16 Apr 2018
Rig en voyage With a very large hat tip to "iamthedogman" over at ADVFN:[link] Eagle with Rig aboard shows an ETA on Marine Traffic of 10.5.18 at Luba Port on an Island west of Cameroon"And here from the Marine Traffic site is confirmation with a pic of the "Eagle" ferrying an even larger rig than the Topaz:[link]
Bison722
14 Apr 2018
Re: Where's the support? If you look at the 3 and 1 year charts we are still in a long term uptrend - haven’t put in a lower low than jan 2016 when we hit 18p and since July 2017 (when we hit 24p) there have been a series of higher lows and higher highs I think supports look like 30p, then 28.25p, then 24p I think any big or consistent buying will dry up until closer to the drills The only big buyer recently has been COC imo.......I think they want to go to 29.99% (as at 30% they would have to make an offer themselves and I don’t think they want that). With their latest holding notification I don’t think they will have to report again unless they went over 31%So they will sit at 29.99% until reserve numbers are firmed up and then flog the company to the highest bidder .............don’t see anything under 45p IMO
Simonhare999
13 Apr 2018
Where's the support? Looks like the buyer has disappeared, anyone have any analysis of how long/how low we will drift before finding support?Are people selling and putting their money to better use for six months in the hope of buying in lower nearer the time of the drill results in Q4?
Charlie56
12 Apr 2018
Re: 3rd April presentation Or it could be that Simon Thompson in IC said top slice half............And why oh why are they investing in 'corporate debt funds and investments in specific businesses operating within the wider oil and gas value chain'. For all we know that could be some of COCs other pet projects....
Bison722
10 Apr 2018
Re: 3rd April presentation "The IIs know a dog when they see one""little intervention" brain-dead
jacarandauk
09 Apr 2018
Re: 3rd April presentation Yes the market has responded well to that little intervention - down 6%.The IIs know a dog when they see one.
indaknow
09 Apr 2018
Re: 3rd April presentation WarbabyAs you say, doesn't add any additional information but good to see that Eli is attempting to push the message about the future strategy. It's interesting that the issues with previous drills are raised - let's hope lessons have been learnt. I don't see anything driving the share price up or down until closer to drilling results - apart from 'normal' market fluctuations or any action by COC to acquire additional shares.Positive drilling results should see a surge as we're fully funded and don't need to raise more money. Bomono looks like a write off and a waste of over $100m. I don't get the impression that Eli believes that VOG will solve their customer issues any time soon!
warbaby43
09 Apr 2018
3rd April presentation Not sure it adds owt not already known, but it appears they have been out in front of analysts as this is on the BLVN website dated 3rd April:[link]
indaknow
07 Apr 2018
Re: Interims RNS JacGood of you to post before doing your paper round. I guess when you've lost as much money as you have, every little helps.
jacarandauk
07 Apr 2018
Re: Interims RNS Relax tiger....he's only giving you his opinion. One which seems to be based on some industry experience.No need to shout him down.
indaknow
05 Apr 2018
Re: Interims RNS FluffyYou say "All the previous institutional knowledge, background and relationships have been lost by change of board". Two things: (i) this isn't new "news"; (ii) what relationship do you think the previous board had with glorious leader and co? The news releases from Cameroon prior to the board leaving hardly smacked of a strong and successful relationship. Again, we're not operator and haven't been for years. Why wait until now to raise your concerns?
Fluffy Ducky
05 Apr 2018
Re: Interims RNS Bison - Many Thanks indeed for your supportive comments on my response to the thread, esp. given I am far from being a regular poster. I offer my comments on a “take-them-or-leave-them” basis based on my experience in the industry and a wish to provide some forward thinking and constructive discussion on this board for this upcoming ‘transitional’ period for Blvn. Of course I accept that others will have different views or offer challenge or disagree entirely, but that’s a normal part of a considered discussion.Thankfully Indaknow, I don’t think of myself as naïve enough after 25+years to think the current CEO will be doing things all by himself, there simply aren’t enough hours in the day (unless of course he has Hermione Granger’s “Time-Turner” [What we would all give for one of those – Ed.]). But rather than protract a discussion here amongst the posters, based on possible guesses at Blvn staffing and/or third party consultant levels being employed, I will take up Indaknow’s suggestion and try to get some info on the current and estimated forward monthly spend from Blvn themselves, since given the impending drilling programme, spending forecasts on a month by month basis for the programme must surely be available. I’ll pass on a response if/when it arrives. On the “risks”, I agree, the technical risks probably haven’t changed since the last well was drilled and the post-well analysis was completed. However, what has changed beyond recognition is the above ground situation. All the previous institutional knowledge, background and relationships have been lost by change of board and loss of previous Bowleven staff from the (notwithstanding any views of the expertise or not of the previous CEO). This is a tremendous loss for Blvn, the JV and the assets. The staff/contractors of the now Etinde Operator NewAGE may be able to use their historical knowledge, but unless NewAGE are now employing the previous Bowleven staff, ultimately there has been a loss of expertise and experience of ops at Etinde which to me must result in a tangible increase in operational risk. This is because the result of knowledge/experience loss increases potential for the same mistakes from previous wells to be made again while drilling these upcoming wells. Let us hope the well planning has been fastidious and thorough for these wells, the rig crews know what they are doing (given the rig is coming from Singapore) and the live operational supervision is up-to-scratch.On the CoS for the first well, the IM-6 well has been assessed as having a chance of success of ‘circa 50%’, the so-called coin-flip. However my earlier statement was intended to convey the idea that in my experience, this “50%”is as good as it gets for almost wells in an appraisal situation, i.e. most appraisal wells will have less chance of success than this. As pointed out by other commentators, true wildcat wells will likely have an even lesser chance of success (IMO typically 10-20%). In my experience only development wells have geological CoS above 50%, though the boundaries of what is true ‘exploration’, true ‘appraisal’ and what is ‘development’ can sometimes be very subjective. Note the CoS for the 2nd appraisal, IM-7, will likely be influenced by the result at the IM-6 well, for better or worse… Unfortunately the increased risks based on my operational comments in the prior para above are never captured as part of the ‘Chance of Success’ of any well since this CoS almost always reflects only the chance of a geological/subsurface technical success.In commenting on the possible COC course of action in an IM-6 dry hole scenario, I offer an opinion based on a situation where I have tried to put myself in the position of COC in the event there is no clear line of sight to project FID and so no clear path to making a serious return on the (COC) investment after buying around 30% of the Blvn shares. What would you do if you had spent some savings on buyin
Bison722
05 Apr 2018
Re: Interims RNS And on bomono fluff, I couldn’t agree more but I would go further and say that there is ZERO in the SP for that asset so it doesn’t matter, market hasn’t written it off That’s what happens when you have a CEO that believes it prudent to press on with a horribly inadequate rig, spending circa $90 mil dollars on it when he had a $15 mil budget, not inform the market and then farm it out (in a bid to save his job) via a deal that means investors would not see a return for 30+ years Bomono is dead thanks to KH
