Winnet
17 Apr 2018
Re: IC text Indaknow good to see you moderating your position and acknowledging the risks. I think the penny may eventually be dropping! Statistically the appraisal has about a 70%COS IIRC what Kevin said. If the appraisal is a dud, then it will very much depend on Lukoil if further drills are commissioned and that will depend if Putin and Trump are at war by then. In terms of Simon's IC link - here it is. [link]
indaknow
17 Apr 2018
Re: IC text WarbabyI don't agree that NewAge are the movers and shakers here. They can't make a decision in relation to FID without the agreeing of other partners. The whole Etinde operation requires someone to buy the gas and oil and someone to fund the infrastructure - NewAge can't fund this project alone. Lukoil are key IMO. Sadly, Blvn are irrelevant in the grand scheme of things.
indaknow
17 Apr 2018
Re: IC text SimonI'm not sure that I understand what you mean by COC taking a decision to close Blvn as a going concern? COC could decide to take the company 'private' by acquiring enough shares to remove Blvn from AIM and cease to trade as a public limited company, but I imagine the company would still be trading with an aim to making profit and would be a going concern. If the drill finds dust I expect the share price will plummet in the short term (probably below 20p) and will recover if and when a decision is made by Lukoil and NewAge in relation to FID. My view is that value here will only be realised if and when FID happens.I don't personally see any 'payout to shareholders' unless COC do launch a takeover bid. There is no way (IMO) that the Company will decide to cease and distribute funds to shareholders unless etinde is dead and buried. If etinde is dead and buried you can kiss goodbye to any value being available for shareholders IMO.
Simonhare999
17 Apr 2018
Re: IC text Indaknow,Thanks for your detailed response.What do you think is the "worst case scenario", my guess is a payout to shareholders of around 20p/share, based on current cash reserves being worth around 25p/share and deducting the costs involved should COC ever take the decision to close BLVN as a going concern.GL,Simon.
warbaby43
17 Apr 2018
Re: IC text New Age are patently the prime movers on Etinde and on the issue of development, if this hasn't already seen viewed, it's worth a read:[link]
indaknow
17 Apr 2018
Re: IC text SimonAs I understand it, the known resources are sufficient to indicate that Etinde is "commercial" and could be developed. However, that only tells part of the story IMO.Blvn as junior partner have no control over when, or indeed if, Etinde will ever be developed. This is why there must be a material uncertainty over Blvn's future prospects. If Etinde isn't developed, Blvn have no obvious source of revenue and will burn through the cash and end up worthless. Lukoil and NewAge will determine if and when Etinde will be developed and I expect that Lukoil especially will assess the opportunity cost of backing Etinde rather than other prospects they own/control. A successful drill proving increased resources will make the development of Etinde more likely as increased resources equal increased gas and oil to sell and prolong the commercial life of the project making FID a "no brainer" for all involved. If the drill proves unsuccessful, Lukoil might decide that they can generate better returns by prioritising other fields and Etinde goes onto the back burner. NewAge and Blvn need Etinde to be developed as neither has any other obvious source of near term value. Lukoil are not in the same boat. It's probably worth noting that Etinde was originally explored some 50 years ago and a number of further drills have taken place since. Hydrocarbons have been found in large quantities, but nobody has taken the step to put the field into production as of yet.Lastly, drilling of Etinde and FID have slipped time and time again. From memory, drilling and FID was scheduled for 2017 and neither happened. All IMO.
Simonhare999
17 Apr 2018
Re: IC text Indaknow,Thanks for your response, even if the drilling disappoints, would Etinde not still be commercial on the basis of existing proven resources?Simon.
Bison722
17 Apr 2018
Re: IC text this is another example of winnets staggering hypocrisyif KH was in charge the drilling risk would still be exactly the same, but of course it would have never been a sell if glorious leader was still at the helm etinde is the only game in town because of KH, not COC - it was KH's actions that led bomono being a write off, his over spending and farmout meant BLVN shareholders would not have seen a return on that investment for over 30 years - kenya, well i suppose that was COC too, as was sapele?what happened to KH buying into assets and rock bottom prices when he had the chance? that would have given BLVN a lifeline should etinde disappoint? but that was COC fault too i believe!
indaknow
17 Apr 2018
Re: IC text SimonIf the drilling disappoints the share price will be decimated in proportion to how disappointing the drilling results are. Etinde is the only asset of material value that blvn has. The cash balance is great, but it isn't going to grow value in the same way that a successful drill will. However, this is not "new" news. Glorious Leader put blvn in this position as a result of the bomono $100m catastrophe resulting in Etinde being the only asset of value.
indaknow
17 Apr 2018
Re: IC text WinnetBravo on another skillful piece of deception. You originally refer to an article by Simon Thompson who you say suggests halving any investment here, then you post a link to a completely different article that states blvn is still a "hold"......
Simonhare999
17 Apr 2018
Re: IC text Thanks Winnet,Personally I'm not concerned with the investment of the cash reserves, it makes sense to try and get a reasonable return on them without taking significant risk.More concerning is what would happen to the project and the sp if the drilling disappoints, what does everyone think?Simon.
Winnet
17 Apr 2018
IC text Simon, This recent article (two weeks ago) sums it up. "There’s more risk here than meets the eye."[link]
Simonhare999
16 Apr 2018
Re: Investor Chronicle Winnet,Does he offer any explanation why?Simon.
indaknow
16 Apr 2018
Re: Investor Chronicle BisonIt speaks volumes that Winnet takes his tips from Investors Chronicle.
Bison722
16 Apr 2018
Re: Investor Chronicle i wonder if winnet would of posted this is Simon had BLVN down as a buy..........?Simon Thompsons record is questionable to say the leastwhat matters to me is who is actually putting their money where their mouth is and staking millions of pounds on BLVN..............but that doesnt matter to those with sellers regret (hi jac and winnet)
