Rhigos
15 Sep 2017
Re: Fundamentals forecast good LKH, "I think RIO is a better bet than BLT."I agree with you which is why I have more invested in RIO 3.76% than BLT 1.30%.Since I moved BLT to my ISA on 10 Jul SP has gone up 8%. RIO in same period only gone up 3%. GLEN (which is 2.16% of my total value) went up 16.5% (recovery phase). In medium term I think BLT is a bit better value than RIO. RIO is more fully valued based on Price / NAV and Price / FCF. I am thinking of topping up on BLT but I think RIO is too expensive to top up now.
LK Hyman
14 Sep 2017
Re: Fundamentals forecast good Rhigos,"Please castigate me if I'm wrong 
"I wouldn't castigate you, m8, but I think RIO is a better bet than BLT.It's a simpler biznay and, while RIO has had its fair share of clusterfucks (Alcan, Mozambique coal) BLT has had worse and more recent ones (USA shale,Samarco and Jansen). With Jansen they've dug themselves into a hole ... and are keeping on digging.[link] gives you some exposure to oil, which RIO doesn't, but, if you want exposure to oil, surely it's better to buy a proper oil company like Shell in addition to a bit less exposure to BLT?LKH on the flybridge proud RIO shareholder
Rhigos
14 Sep 2017
Fundamentals forecast good I moved my modest holding of BLT into my ISA on 10 July and at the beginning of this month they were showing fastest CG in terms of AER (192% pa) in my portfolio. Even outperforming ABF (1 Sep AER 102%). Since then SP has fallen off about 8%. I believe because of weakening dollar and metal prices, At current SP I think BLT are a strong buy for income as well as CG..Valuation: Forecast (fc) PE 12.6, price / FCF 9.1 (3 yr average 26.5) so does not look expensive.fc EPS growth 20.6%FCF conversion 166% (this shows plenty of cash for dividends or purchases)fc dividend yield 4.9%, fc cover X1.6ROCE 11.2% not great but OKBased on restoration to mean I am almost certain SP will rise 5% or more in the next month or so. Please castigate me if I'm wrong
Bertie Biddle
13 Sep 2017
Questor says Buy [link] fund manager Jobs Curtis says that in the year to June it reduced its debts by 37% and is generating significant amounts of excess cash at current levels of commodity prices.This should reflect in dividends he says at the current share price is 4.6%. Although Iron is 44% of profits, copper is 17% (lots wanted for EV's) and Oil 20% but is selling its shale investments which he thinks is a good thing and if you want to invest in oil then BP would be a better bet.The sell off of shale he puts down to Elliott's arrival on the register which will be good for investors.
gamesinvestor
23 Aug 2017
Re: This is extraordinary ... [of which I am no longer one] nor me I'm out.Games -- just RIO and Glencore (and then the latter will go also, just not quite yet)
LK Hyman
23 Aug 2017
Re: This is extraordinary ... Schwee,"The new guy will cut Jansen dead in all likelihood."I sincerely hope so, for shareholders' sake [of which I am no longer one] but I fear that the temptation may be great to say "We've sunk a helluva lot of money into Jansen already so why don't we just finish it off?"LKH on the flybridge like Hinkley Point innit?
II Editor
22 Aug 2017
NEW ARTICLE: BHP hits six-month high after bowing to activist pressure "Having spent big money in the hope of riding the expected boom in shale, LSE:BLT:BHP Billiton bowed to pressure from shareholders Tuesday and pledged to exit its now underperforming US shale oil and gas business.The Anglo-Australian miner is ..."[link]
schwee
22 Aug 2017
Re: This is extraordinary ... At least they are not using their prodigious cash flow in buying back their own shares. Be grateful for small mercies. The new guy will cut Jansen dead in all likelihood. What is gone is gone.
LK Hyman
22 Aug 2017
This is extraordinary ... From the results:"With a later market window now anticipated, the Jansen project will not be brought to the Board in the 2018 calendar year."No wonder Elliott are pursuing these chumps over Jansen (and US onshore shale and oil in general). What kind of control is the Board exercising over Jansen if BLT manages to chew its way through $2 billion of shareholders' money ... plus another $300 million to come in 2018 ... without "bringing the project to the Board"? What ARE these "Board" guys doing all day?Clearly a decision has been taken that the new chairman is going to push through whatever decision is taken as regards Jansen. Fingers crossed that they cancel the whole sorry-assed munter of a project. It'll be a lot easier for the new guy to do that; it's soooo hard for the existing mob to put their hands up and admit: "We screwed up .... big time ... what WERE we thinking?"Whatever they do it won't affectLKH on the flybridge who has sold out of BLT and put all his mining chips on RIO
Jack_Walsh
22 Aug 2017
Re: Results Just noticed sp is up over the water, so the disposal speculation is obviously enough to offset weaker than expected results!
Hydrogen Economy
22 Aug 2017
Results Results look pretty good, albeit earnings/EPS behind some forecasts, but then debt at $16.3b is below forecast."Onshore US assets are non-core and we are actively pursuing options to exit these assets for value" seems like a fire-sale planned to close that particular stable door.Samarco dam failure- "The final date for negotiation of a settlement has been extended from 30 June 2017 to 30 October 2017" Always seemed an optimistic target, hopefully the Brazilians aren't reading the results and penciling in another zero on their target settlement number.I note most forecasts are for slight declines in earnings in 18 & 19, I suspect because there are to many variables in the mix for the analysts to stick their necks out. In any case it seems worth holding a few of these along with a bigger holding of RIO and some CEY in case things turn ugly and comes back into fashion.H2
Jack_Walsh
22 Aug 2017
Results Profits and divs a bit below expectations, so possibly the sp will be down a bit today?Positive comments about offloading some stuff, so might be a move in the right direction?Worth holding, for me.
Hydrogen Economy
20 Aug 2017
Re: Telegraph BHP poised - bumper $4bn d... LK"One of the things that Elliott wants BLT to do is to deep six the Jansen potash project. If Elliott gets its way I for one will give three hearty cheers"I'd in join the cheering for that, but not so sure about changing the dual listing to Aus only, seems an unnecessary risk to make BHP more complicated and presumably expensive to own to many existing shareholders, including H2 who would offload remaining holding sharpish and swap to RIO. RIO is already a much bigger holding and seems an altogether steadier ship with clearer idea of what business it should be in. That said, both have done pretty well of late the dark days of 2015 but a distant memory.H2
LK Hyman
20 Aug 2017
Re: Telegraph BHP poised - bumper $4bn div Hydrogen,"as it attempts to head off the activist hedge fund Elliott Advisors"One of the things that Elliott wants BLT to do is to deep six the Jansen potash project. If Elliott gets its way I for one will give three hearty cheers ... albeit from the sidelines as I'm now entirely out of BLT (and South32) in favour of Rio Tinto.It seems quite extraordinary that BLT continues to pour huge lumps of money down that vast hole in the ground in Saskatchewan without being certain that they are actually going to bring it on stream in a timely fashion. Their attitude looks like unforgiveable dithering toLKH on the flybridge
Hydrogen Economy
20 Aug 2017
Telegraph BHP poised - bumper $4bn div [link] Billiton is poised to unveil a bumper $4bn (£3.1bn) dividend as it attempts to head off the activist hedge fund Elliott Advisors, which has been running an aggressive campaign to overhaul its strategy and boost returns to shareholders.The mining giant is on track to post a dividend of 84 US cents (65p) a share when it reports its full-year results late on Monday night in Australia. Its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation are expected to be in the range of $20bn (£15.5bn), up from $12bn (£9.3bn) a year ago.....
